Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

[gsgs]

kiwibird, I meant:
> Comparing the antibiotic + antiviral cohort to those who were prescribed an antiviral alone,
> there was 47% lower risk for respiratory hospitalization (RR=0.53, 95% CI=0.31-0.94)
> and no other statistical differences were detected

I thought that was your point, adding antibiotics helps. And the same might work for nCoV regarging the start as a cold and then
getting worse after a week ? Although they probably are trying this without success

[how to incluse this as "comment" to the post as you did ?]

 

[JimO]

FredRoosevelt - We need some physics buffs here - but I would think it was good news that the red line has a little downward dip. With everyone being more vigilant and countries blocking mass movement - and whole cities - and their citizens - being incredibly brave and responsible in sheltering in place - it can only help to reduce that blue line too.

One possible explanation for the slight divergence of the curves could be that more testing is resulting in confirmation of milder cases, so that although infections might actually increase on a logarithmic scale, severe cases and deaths might not. Also, as it spreads and people develop immunity in a given population center, herd immunity will increase to the point where it no longer spreads efficiently.

Unfortunately, the Hong Kong scientists who produced one of the models is showing a peak in China around May of this year, so this isn't going away any time soon.

 

[kiwibird]

Yes I just read that one lady from Wuhan visited her family for 19 days without showing symptoms, infected 5 of her family and was then tested positive - still without showing symptoms.

Further news - https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...avirus-major-airlines-pull-plug-services-hong United Airlines among those cutting Hong Kong route.

 

[sharon sanders]

Hi Everyone!

If you have an idea for additions to the forum please post here.

Things are different now. Most people access the internet with their phone.

Our forum set up is ok for people using computers, but for all the people using phones it is not.

It is easier to scroll down a long thread than to search a large site.

I would like to keep the threads to a minumum for this reason.

I can limit the discussion thread to a certain numbers of posts before I open a new one. Let me know what number is good. (i.e. close the discussion thread at 100 posts.)

 

[gsgs]

maybe one thread per day then ? I have to select "filters" , "today" or else it starts with the first post

 

[blacknail]

FredRoosevelt - We need some physics buffs here - but I would think it was good news that the red line has a little downward dip.

Any downward dip in the red line is great news. My concern is that the red (deaths) line is lagging the blue (case) line - the number of recovered cases is lower than the number of deaths in every region that there is reliable data for. If 1 in 4 cases is a severe case and the ratio of deaths to recoveries stays around the current 132:110 then we are looking at a 55% death rate in severe cases or around 14% overall. If this keeps growing at its current rate, the ability of the health system to treat severe cases will be constrained and the death rate could increase. On the flip side, the death rate won't exceed 1 in 4 which leaves more than enough carriers to stop the virus from burning itself out. At this point, it appears that only Summer will slow it down as coronavirus doesn't transmit as easily in Summer. Hoping that this is true for the current strain.

 

[theforeigner]

First confirmed case in Finland!

Link to norwegian media translated to english:

https://direkte.vg.no/nyhetsdognet/news/5e31a5e285ec770011af72a9

16: 33 Vemund Anke Garden

FINLAND WITH FIRST CORONAVIRUS
A Chinese tourist has detected the corona virus in Lapland, Finland, writes Yle.

The 32-year-old female tourist was sent for hospital testing after showing symptoms of the disease that is believed to have spread from Wuhan in China

This is the first confirmed case in the Nordic countries.

 

[JimO]

That's a good point about the capacity to treat severe cases. Once that is reached, tough decisions will have to be made and people who otherwise might survive with intensive treatment, might not make it.

 

[Shiloh]

Source: https://twitter.com/BreakingNAgency/...45197562834946




#BREAKING: WHO is to reconvene the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee on the Novel #Coronavirus tomorrow.
Quote Tweet

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus



@DrTedros






? 21m

I have decided to reconvene the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee on the new #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) tomorrow to advise me on whether the current outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern.
Show this thread

10:41 AM ? Jan 29, 2020?Twitter Web Client

 

[bertrand789]

Il a ?t? indiqu? ce site : http://nmdc.cn/#/nCoV

Au total, 585 ?chantillons ont ?t? pr?lev?s dans deux lots de South China Seafood City. Les tests de PCR ont montr? que 33 ?chantillons ?taient positifs pour le nouvel acide nucl?ique du coronavirus. Ces ?chantillons positifs ont ?t? distribu?s dans 22 ?tals et 1 camion ? ordures sur le march?, dont 93,9% (31/33) des ?chantillons positifs ont ?t? distribu?s dans la partie ouest du march? des fruits de mer de Chine m?ridionale. L'enqu?te a r?v?l? que le march? des fruits de mer de la Chine m?ridionale ?tait nominalement un march? de fruits de mer, mais ?tait en fait un march? global. Il y a un commerce d'esp?ces sauvages dans la partie ouest du march? des fruits de mer de la Chine du Sud, en particulier dans les zones proches des 7e et 8e rues de la zone ouest, o? il y a de nombreux marchands d'animaux sauvages, et les sp?cimens positifs dans cette zone sont ?galement concentr?s, repr?sentant 42,4% de tous les ?chantillons positifs (14 / 33). En r?sum?, on soup?onne fortement que l'?pid?mie est li?e au commerce des esp?ces sauvages.
http://nmdc.cn/#/news/detail?data=[...t Object]&index=0&id=5e2d9eb0f1bf0242e062d78b

c'est pourquoi je souhaite les avis des v?t?rinaires chinois...

 

[JimO]

I'm watching the WHO press conference and to my surprise and alarm, they have not discounted a case fatality rate of as much as 2%, although they stated that it is early and that reliable infection and fatality rates cannot be determined this early. This is in the CFR range of the 1918 H1N1, which is an order of magnitude higher than seasonal flu.

 

[theforeigner]

If this is true we have a huge problem !

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/thailand-not-able-to-stop-the-spread-of-coronavirus

Thailand’s health ministry has confirmed 14 cases of coronavirus, the second-most of any country behind China. China has more than 4,500 confirmed cases of the virus, mostly in the city of Wuhan, where the virus began. More than 100 Chinese people have died from the disease.

Thailand health minister Anutin Charnvirakul said on Tuesday that the government is “not able to stop the spread” of coronavirus in the country, according to Sky News.
The Thai government estimates that about 22,000 tourists from Wuhan visited the country in January, possibly exposing vast numbers of people to the virus.

 

[JimO]

The WHO representatives have been emphatic that China has been completely transparent and provided timely reports of available information. I suppose they have to be careful not to criticize the Chinese government if they want some level of cooperation, but I think it is naive, at least, to believe that China has been transparent and fully cooperative.

 

[alert]

I'm watching the WHO press conference and to my surprise and alarm, they have not discounted a case fatality rate of as much as 2%, although they stated that it is early and that reliable infection and fatality rates cannot be determined this early. This is in the CFR range of the 1918 H1N1, which is an order of magnitude higher than seasonal flu.

I haven't discounted a fatality rate as high as 8-10% (or as low as that of seasonal flu). With over 96% of confirmed cases still ill, it's too early to know the CFR.

Personally, 2% is probably somewhere in the middle of my estimates.

 

[sharon sanders]

I'm watching the WHO press conference and to my surprise and alarm, they have not discounted a case fatality rate of as much as 2%, although they stated that it is early and that reliable infection and fatality rates cannot be determined this early. This is in the CFR range of the 1918 H1N1, which is an order of magnitude higher than seasonal flu.

No one knows the cfr because no one knows the true number of cases. It is impossible to calculate.

 

[c3jmp]

The worst case scenarios for a US flu pandemic used to top out at 2%..

 

[Ronan Kelly]

With regard to cfr and comparison to this years influenza;
Using the latest cdc estimates, flu hospitalization rate is between 0.7-1.7% of cases and flu fatality is between 0.04 and 0.13% of cases.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...ality-surveillance-system?p=824604#post824604

Assuming 200,000 cases of nCoV and 133 deaths to date cfr sits at a minimum of 0.06%, slap bang in the middle of an average flu season. There is a total of 1,239 severe cases.

Of course every death of a currently sick patient will cause that to rise. And whatever the denominator really is will have an effect.

 

[tetano]

Ronan, you cannot compare deaths from influenza on the base of statistical estimates with deaths from corona on the basis of the certificated deaths. Unfortunately we can't calculate the real CFR, becouse we don't know how many are dying without a diagnosis and we don't know how many actually hospitalized will die in the next weeks

 

[JimO]

The number of confirmed nCoV deaths can't really be compared with an assumed number of cases to even estimate CFR. Certainly, there are a lot of mild cases that will never be confirmed, but as Tetano points out, there are serious cases that have not been resolved. What concerns me most is the number of deaths versus those released from hospital. Hopefully, this reflects both the fact that only serious cases are hospitalized and an overabundance of caution when releasing patients

 

[kiwibird]

An English version of your post via google translate. For everyones consideration.

It was indicated this site: http://nmdc.cn/#/nCoV

A total of 585 samples were taken from two lots in South China Seafood City. PCR tests showed that 33 samples were positive for the new coronavirus nucleic acid. These positive samples were distributed in 22 stalls and 1 garbage truck on the market, of which 93.9% (31/33) of the positive samples were distributed in the western part of the seafood market in South China. The investigation revealed that the seafood market in South China was nominally a seafood market, but was in fact a global market. There is a wildlife trade in the western part of the South China seafood market, especially in the areas near 7th and 8th streets in the western zone, where there are many merchants wild animals, and positive specimens in this area are also concentrated, accounting for 42.4% of all positive samples (14/33). In summary, there is a strong suspicion that the epidemic is linked to the wildlife trade.
http://nmdc.cn/#/news/detail?data=%5...bf0242e062d78b

that's why I want the opinions of Chinese veterinarians