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Discussion Thread I - 2019-nCov (new coronavirus)

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Sounds like 2 different cases. One was in Wuhan and the other is a bus driver who was not. Bus drivers and passengers hand off luggage, so a virus would not have to be very infectious to pass between the two.
 
I saw this CEPI director Richard Hatchett in norweigan TV last night and it was kind of frightening,
he said that the virus is far more dangerous than so far described in media,
I found this in todays norwegian media (translated):

https://www.tv2.no/a/11167131/

Richard Hatchett, director of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), said Monday
that it is impossible to isolate the virus and that it is not just a problem for China.

"There is an extremely high risk of a global pandemic, which has the potential to spread as a Spanish disease in 1918,"
the CEPI director warned during a meeting with Norway's Minister of Development Dag-Inge Ulstein in Oslo.
 
theforeigner said:
I saw this CEPI director Richard Hatchett in norweigan TV last night and it was kind of frightening,
he said that the virus is far more dangerous than so far described in media,
I found this in todays norwegian media (translated):

https://www.tv2.no/a/11167131/

Richard Hatchett, director of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), said Monday
that it is impossible to isolate the virus and that it is not just a problem for China.

"There is an extremely high risk of a global pandemic, which has the potential to spread as a Spanish disease in 1918,"
the CEPI director warned during a meeting with Norway's Minister of Development Dag-Inge Ulstein in Oslo.
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HTML: 
#377.1
Emily commented
Today, 05:47 AM
Wonder why he references a pandemic that occurred so long ago during a World War. What about more recent pandemics? If people get frighted by the 1918 references, read the article posted here might help:
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...of-a-new-virus


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

The 1918 influenza pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920; colloquially known as Spanish flu) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus.[SUP][1][/SUP] It infected 500 million people around the world,[SUP][2][/SUP] including people on remote Pacific islands and in the Arctic. Probably 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million (three to five percent of Earth's population at the time) died, making it one of the deadliest epidemics in human history
 
I watched the interview with Professor Gabriel Leung of Hong Kong University yesterday and one of the comments that struck me was that he thought it may be that the people who were not getting very ill had a low viral load and the people with severe symptoms had a high viral load. He did say that it was all supposition at the moment. I did wonder, however, if it might be that the virus had different variants - some causing few symptoms - and if that was circulating then it might confer immunity (even somewhat) to the severe form of the virus. Perhaps they are thinking the low viral load patients might have a viral infection that is not so vigorous - and let it circulate???
 
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Coronavirus Outbreak: Thai Woman Dies In Kolkata; Germany & Sri Lanka Confirm First Cases (Video)

While China reels under Coronavirus outbreak, India has reported death of a Thai woman, Coronavirus suspect in Kolkata hospital. The woman, hospitalised on Jan 21, was transferred
to ICU with stomach problem, nausea and fever. Authorities in Delhi have also isolated three people at Ram Manohar Lohia (RML) hospital over coronavirus suspicion.


https://www.news18.com/videos/ivideos/coronavirus-outbreak-2476369.html
 
Confusion and lost time: how testing woes slowed China's coronavirus response
January 27, 2020 / 9:46 AM / Updated 10 hours ago


BEIJING (Reuters) - Yang Zhongyi was still waiting on Monday for a coronavirus test in the Chinese city of Wuhan two weeks after she started to show signs of a fever, even though doctors privately told her family that she almost certainly has been infected, her son Zhang Changchun told Reuters.

Yang, 53, is just one of many Wuhan inhabitants finding it difficult to get tested or receive treatment for the new form of coronavirus, which authorities say has infected 2,800 people and killed at least 80 in China, a situation that may be contributing to the spread of the disease.

Yang has been unable to gain full-time admission to a hospital, her son said. She has been put on drips in unquarantined areas at four separate hospitals in the city to treat her deteriorating lungs, he said, while he is doing what he can to get her tested or admitted full-time.

“My brother and I have been queuing at the hospital every day. We go at 6 and 7 in the morning, and queue for the whole day, but we don’t get any new answers,” Zhang told Reuters. “Every time the responses are the same: ‘There’s no bed, wait for the government to give a notice, and follow the news to see what’s going on.’ The doctors are all very frustrated too.”


more at

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1ZQ21K
 
kiwibird said:
I did wonder, however, if it might be that the virus had different variants ...
Click to expand...

I think this unlikely kiwibird as all the the sequences released so far are identical - or very nearly so. Current estimates put all of them coming from a single ancestor two months ago, so not much time for genetic drift or host adaption. Patients showing severe symptoms are likely to do so because the hosts immune system has failed to contain viral replication adequately leading to more virus and more shedding. I suspect variations in host immune response to this novel pathogen to be the primary cause not variations in the virus - at least at this stage. Renal failure is showing up in the most severe cases which makes sense due to these cells having many ACE2 receptors which SARS used as its binding site and a paper I linked to, in the Genetics discussion thread, shows works for nCoV. The implication being that failure to get on top of the infection at the respiratory tract infection site leads to increased tissue tropism and access to the target rich kidneys where it is difficult to treat either the infection or the damage caused.
 
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hawkeye said:
Guardian reporting fist known case of H2H within Germany:

“Germany confirms first human transmission of coronavirus in Europe A German man who tested positive for the strain of coronavirus sweeping across China was infected by a work colleague, officials said on Tuesday, in what is believed to be the first human transmission in Europe, AFP reports.”

https://amp.theguardian.com/science...-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates
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Here's MORE on this case:
[h=1]Germany confirms human transmission of coronavirus[/h] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-confirms-human-transmission-of-coronavirus/a-52169007

(SNIP): ... The first person in Germany to have tested positive for the new coronavirus was infected by a Chinese colleague who attended a company training event in the state of Bavaria a week ago, health officials said on Tuesday.

The colleague, a woman from Shanghai, "started to feel sick on the flight home on January 23," Andreas Zapf, head of the Bavarian State Office for Health and Food Safety, said at a press conference.

The 33-year-old man who contracted the virus lives near Starnberg, 30 kilometers (18 miles) south of Munich, and is in a "medically good state," according to the health authority.
 
I don't know the validity of the source but it was posted about an hour ago:

"A case study, a patient had fever, was DNA tested negative on day 2, weak positive on day 4, and confirmed positive on day 6
https://mobile.twitter.com/vote4dong...59845874458625

In a follow-up comment the poster stated:
"Case from zhongshan 5th hospital in Guangzhou"

I used my phone camera to transcribe the image included within his post - Google Translate via photo isn't the best so it will be choppy:

"Patients with Lee, female 40. due to headache, fever 1 day admission, before admission long time in Wuhan Cancer Center Hospital care sick husband...
pulmonary under leaf lesions, consider infectious disease..
.. viral pneumonia suspected.."
 
There were no modern antibiotics in 1918 and most died from secondary bacterial infections. From the research article I referenced:
https://academic.oup.com/milmed/article/181/8/878/4158345
"ABSTRACT
During the 1918–1919 pandemic, influenza mortality widely varied across populations and locations. Records of U.S. military members in mobilization camps (n = 40), military academies, and officer training schools were examined to document differences in influenza experiences during the fall 1918. During the fall–winter 1918–1919, mortality percentages were higher among soldiers in U.S. Army mobilization camps (0.34–4.3%) than among officer trainees (0–1.0%). Susceptibility to infection and clinical expressions of 1918 pandemic influenza varied largely based on host epidemiological characteristics rather than the inherent virulence of the virus."

So host condition is the key. The 2009 pandemic flu would be a better comparison for spread. Less stress for the audience.
 
...
One of the luckiest breaks the world got with the SARS outbreak was the fact that the virus did not transmit before people developed symptoms.
...
Tools like quarantine and isolation—which were key to controlling SARS—are unlikely stop spread of a virus that can transmit during the period from infection to symptoms, experts say.
...
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the agency knows transmission of the virus within the United States may be on the horizon.

“We’re leaning far forward. And we have been every step of the way with an aggressive stance to everything we can do in the U.S.,” she told STAT. “And yet those of us who have been around long enough know that everything we do might not be enough to stop this from spreading in the U.S.”

...
https://www.scientificamerican.com/...e-sustained-global-spread-of-new-coronavirus/
 
sharon sanders said:
We continue to track all 2019-nCov news

But at this point - the most important news is that people need to protect themselves.

We certainly do not agree with all comments & actions of governments.
Click to expand...

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/health...0200128-jwc4en2nwrfnle56rug6eni6qe-story.html "Although questions remain over exactly how the coronavirus is spreading so quickly, the Centers for Disease Control cautioned Americans on Tuesday during a news briefing not to rush out to buy surgical masks to protect themselves. “It’s unnecessary,” said Alex Azar, United States Secretary of Health and Human Services. “The risk in America is low. We are taking steps to be prepared. Individual Americans should not be impacted in their day to day life.”

My Opinion of the above comments - is that such statements are not helpful, and in the end will lessen credibility.
 
DavidH said:
My Opinion of the above comments - is that such statements are not helpful, and in the end will lessen credibility.[/B]
Click to expand...

I agree. I just don't understand the obsession with avoiding "panic" on the part of CDC and WHO.
 
[h=1]Six Seafarers Fall Ill as Coronavirus Outbreak Continues
THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE 01-28-2020 05:39:00[/h]

Six seafarers aboard a French-operated container ship have fallen ill during a voyage from China to Egypt, raising concerns that they could be the first reported mariners to have contracted the new coronavirus strain originating in Wuhan.

According to Sri Lankan media, six crewmembers aboard the container ship CMA CGM Ural were affected by an illness after calling at Ningbo, Xiamen and Shenzhen in mid-January. Information on the spread of the new coronavirus within China is limited, but in Shenzhen, two suspected cases (out of 12 million local residents) were reported on January 18... :tiphat:https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/six-seafarers-fall-ill-as-coronavirus-outbreak-continues
 
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