• FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
  • We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.

Discussion Thread I - 2019-nCov (new coronavirus)

Status
Not open for further replies.
isn't it useless, what they are doing ? I mean, we were discussing this so often during birdflu and there were lots of papers ...
and we still remember 2009 ...
OK, this is coronavirus, not flu, so we don't know exactly.
But it's also risky, will the population accept it , how big the economical damage
 
Source: https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/20/1/25/n11821057.htm Home> News> Mainland News> Natural disasters and human calamities> Text
The source of Wuhan pneumonia or from the CCP virus laboratory

Update: 2020-01-26 1:07 AM Tags: Wuhan Pneumonia, Wuhan New Coronavirus, Wuhan Virus Research Institute

[The Epoch Times, January 26, 2020] (Reporting by Epoch Times reporter Zhang Ting) Where is the root of Wuhan's new coronavirus? There is no conclusion yet. The CCP claims it may be from animals, but an Israeli biological warfare expert believes that the source of this deadly virus may be in a laboratory in Wuhan, which is related to the CCP ’s secret biological weapons program.
Wuhan Institute of Virology Participates in CCP's Secret Biological Weapon Project

Radio Free Asia this week replayed a 2015 report from a local Wuhan TV station that mentioned China's most advanced virus research laboratory, the Wuhan Virus Research Institute. The institute has the only security laboratory in China to study deadly viruses.

According to the Washington Times, Dany Shoham, a former Israeli military intelligence officer who has studied Chinese biological warfare (also known as bacterial warfare), said the Wuhan Virus Research Institute is linked to Beijing's secret biological weapons program.

Shawham told China Times that, as far as research and development is concerned, some of the institute's laboratories may be involved or at least incidentally involved in the CCP ’s biological weapons research.

He said in an email that the biological weapons research was carried out as part of the CCP's dual-use research and was "absolutely secret."

Shawham holds a PhD in medical microbiology. From 1970 to 1991, he was a senior analyst in the Israeli military intelligence service, responsible for biological and chemical warfare research in the Middle East and worldwide.

In the past, the CCP has denied possession of any offensive biological weapons. The US State Department said in a report last year that it suspected that the CCP was engaged in secret biological warfare.

Xiaoham said that Wuhan Institute of Virology is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Sciences. But some of the laboratories in the institute are related to the Chinese army or the Chinese biological weapons program.

In 1993, the Communist Party of China announced that the second facility "Wuhan Biological Products Research Institute" was one of eight biological warfare research facilities.

Shawham said that the Wuhan Institute of Biological Products is a civilian facility, but has links to the Chinese Communist Party's national defense and is believed to have participated in the Chinese Communist Party's biological weapons program.

A spokesman for the Chinese Embassy has not yet responded to a request for comment from China Times.
Wuhan laboratory studies highly infectious viruses such as SARS

The Wuhan Virus Research Institute has reported that the coronavirus has been studied in the past, including SARS, H5N1 influenza virus, Japanese encephalitis and dengue. Researchers at the institute also studied the bacteria that cause anthrax.

In an article published last July in the Institute of National Defense Research and Analysis, Shawham said that the Wuhan Institute is one of four Chinese laboratories engaged in the development of certain aspects of biological weapons.

The institute ’s Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory (P4 laboratory) is engaged in SARS, Ebola, Nipah, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever) virus research.

"Coronaviruses (especially SARS) have been studied at the institute and may be stored inside." Shawham said.

He also said that SARS was generally included in the CCP ’s biological weapons program and was processed in several related facilities. It is unclear whether various coronaviruses from this institute have been specifically included in the biological weapons program, but this is very likely.

The P4 laboratory is China's first laboratory with a biological protection level of Level 4.

Data show that level 4 is the highest level of biosecurity. This level needs to deal with some of the most dangerous and unknown pathogens, which may cause pathogens transmitted via aerosols or pose a high personal risk, and that the pathogens do not yet have any known vaccines or treatments. Therefore, strict security standards are needed to prevent proliferation.

Shawham said that when a group of Chinese virologists working in Canada inappropriately sent samples of the most deadly virus, such as Ebola virus, to China, it raised people's doubts about the Wuhan Virus Research Institute.
Does not rule out new coronavirus "escape" from Wuhan laboratory

The Chinese authorities have so far declared that the origin of the new coronavirus in Wuhan has not been found. The virus has killed 41 people and infected more than 1,300 people.

Gao Fu, director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, only told the Chinese state-controlled media that preliminary signs indicate that the virus originated from wild animals sold at the Wuhan Seafood Market.

U.S. officials say an ominous omen is that since the virus broke out, false rumors have been circulating on Chinese websites claiming that the virus is part of a US conspiracy to spread biological weapons. The official said this may indicate that the Chinese Communist Party is preparing for aggressive publicity in response to future accusations that the new virus has "escaped" from a laboratory in Wuhan.

When asked if this new type of coronavirus was "leaked out" from the laboratory, Shawham stated that in principle, the virus was transmitted to the outside or "leaked" through the virus, or through the facility People are unknowingly infected with the virus and brought out. This may be the case at Wuhan Virus Research, but so far, there is no evidence to explain it.

After researchers sequence the genome of the new coronavirus, it is possible to determine or suggest its origin or source.

The British "Daily Mail" said that in fact, American scientists have long warned that the virus may "escape" from the P4 laboratory at the Wuhan Virus Research Institute.

Maryland biosecurity adviser Tim Trevan commented in the journal Nature as early as 2017, saying he was concerned that the culture created under the CCP system would make the institute insecure because It is important that everyone can speak freely and make information public, but the CCP will not allow it.

Nature is one of the most authoritative academic journals in the world. The article disclosed that the SARS virus has "escaped" from a laboratory in Beijing several times.

The Wuhan P4 laboratory is about 20 miles (32 kilometers) away from the "South China Seafood Market" in Wuhan, where the new coronavirus pneumonia outbreak occurred. The Washington Times said some reports suggested that the virus could have been transmitted from a laboratory.

The Wuhan P4 laboratory studies the world's most dangerous pathogens. In addition, the laboratory conducts animal research. But in China, compared with Western countries, the rules of animal research are much looser. This is where Treven is worried.

For example, to study the behavior of the new 2019 coronavirus (2019-nCov), and to develop treatments and vaccines, it is required that the research monkeys be infected with these viruses before they are tested. The problem is that monkeys are unpredictable. They can run, they can scratch, they can bite, and the viruses they carry spread across their feet, nails, and teeth.
U.S. warns Chinese Communist Party's toxin research and development program could pose biological threat

Last year, the State Department ’s annual arms treaty compliance report stated that the CCP is engaged in activities that may support biological warfare.

The report said: "Information indicates that during the reporting period, the People's Republic of China (the Communist Party of China) engaged in biological activities that may have dual uses, which raised concerns about its compliance with the Biological Weapons Convention."

The report also added that the United States suspects that the Chinese Communist Party has failed to cancel its biological warfare program and has not complied with the requirements of the Convention. The United States is also concerned that the Chinese Communist Party's toxin research and development project may pose a potential biological threat.

Editor-in-chief: Lin Yan #
 
There has been much discussion of important epidemiological metrics like CFR and Ro in the various discussion threads and academics are publishing first estimates of them and using epi-models to provide a possible future path of the outbreak. I would like to warn against putting too much stock in these estimates at this stage and this post will look at why.

Testing. Something caused a sufficiently dense cluster of case in the Wuhan fish market for them to seem excessive, above the normal background noise, with no obvious cause . From this 2018 paper on CAP (Community Acquired Pneumonia) China would normally expect about 0.5% of its population to suffer from CAP each year and of those sampled (n=5828) "A definite or probable pathogen was identified only in 12.7% of patients". All this implies that Wuhan would expect over 100CAP/day for which there is no know causative agent. Once the nCoV was sequenced test primers could be developed for RT PCR and distributed at which point the problem becomes where to apply them as PCR capacity is limited. Priorities would be retrospective testing of older suspect cases to determine if the virus had been circulating previously, and for how long, and the very ill patients to confirm nCoV. Given this situation CFR will be heavily skewed toward the most severe cases and will not come down until there is routine testing of mild cases and asymptomatic patient contacts. A fuller picture leading to more accurate values will not be found without random serological testing of the general population. It is only at this point that a reasonable Ro and CFR can be calculated. Antibodies developed to an immune challenge can take up to a month to show and may decrease fairly rapidly to a point where they fall below the sensitivity of the test anti-sera which makes these test very difficult and time consuming to perform and leads to great variation in the results, of the 5828 people in the linked study only one was serologicaly tested.
Why the Fish market gave us a cluster great enough to force a closer look is not yet clear two possible explanations are a superspreader or an infectious animal which had previously caused a cluster in the market which, once infectious, then began H2H causing the detected cluster. Direct host to human seems less likely due to all positive samples being found in the fish - rather than bush meat - areas and reports that the members of the cluster had only been in the fish section.
Other important numbers needed for modelling are CAR (new cases/susceptible population), duration of infectious period and time from infection to symptom onset. Infection to symptom onset seems to be about a week but I have not seen anything that can pin down the other numbers.
Edit:
N.B. The CAR definition (new cases/susceptible population) needs an answer to the question 'How many new cases are there in total including both symptomatic and asymptomatic?' which we can not get a feel for until testing reaches into the very mild cases. The total number of cases, tested or otherwise, is critical to all models and forecasts while it remains probably the least well constrained - in terms of the bounds to its possible max and min values.
 
Last edited:
hawkeye said:
You know it is getting serious (or beyond serious) when:

Chinese President Xi Jinping warns that China is facing a "serious situation"

https://newsus.app/xi-jinping-china-...ituation-cctv/
Click to expand...

Yes, a serious situation alright. Current projections are thousands more cases in the next few days in China. See the graph below.



20200125.jpg
 
Perhaps he called it a serious situation for political reasons as well as the strain on health facilities. There's a theory of Chinese Dynastic Cycles which basically implies political change after epidemics among other factors. His career is threatened if he's made the wrong calls..only time will tell.
 
The ease with which Dr Yan was infected, just by sitting next to Dr Moumou at a meeting is very troubling.
( Post #653, in this thread https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...health-care-workers-at-least-41-deaths/page44 )

It may help explain why the Chinese leadership is gearing up for a much worse case than SARS.
Putting 50MM people in the heart of the country into quarantine smacks of desperation, considering that it is unlikely to impede the epidemic if the R0 factor is indeed close to 4, as has been suggested and perhaps confirmed by the experience of Dr Yan.
 
[h=1]China Travel Advisory Update: Level 4 – Do Not Travel to Hubei Province[/h]
Home | News & Events | China Travel Advisory Update: Level 4 – Do Not Travel to Hubei Province 70

Level 4: Do not travel to Hubei province, China due to novel coronavirus first identified in Wuhan, China:

There is an ongoing outbreak of pneumonia first identified in Wuhan, China, caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. In an effort to contain the novel coronavirus, the Chinese authorities have suspended air and rail travel in the area around Wuhan. On January 23, 2020, the Department of State ordered the departure of all non-emergency U.S. personnel and their family members. The U.S. government has limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in Hubei province.

Chinese authorities have imposed strict travel restrictions in the area around Wuhan. Travelers should be aware that the Chinese government could prevent them from entering or exiting parts of Hubei province. Travelers should be prepared for travel restrictions to be put into effect with little or no advance notice.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued a Warning Level 3 Alert (Avoid Nonessential Travel) due to an ongoing outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus that can be spread from person to person.

If you must travel to Wuhan, you should:
  • Avoid contact with sick people.
  • Avoid animals (alive or dead), animal markets, and products that come from animals (such as uncooked meat).
  • Wash hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer if soap and water are not available.
  • Older adults and travelers with underlying health issues may be at risk for more severe disease and should discuss travel to Wuhan with their healthcare provider.
If you traveled to Wuhan in the last 14 days and feel sick with fever, cough, or difficulty breathing, you should:
  • Seek medical care right away. Before you go to a doctor’s office or emergency room, call ahead and tell them about your recent travel and your symptoms.
  • Avoid contact with others.
  • Not travel while sick.
  • Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when coughing or sneezing.
  • Wash hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer if soap and water are not available.
Please see https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/watch/novel-coronavirus-china and https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/novel-coronavirus-2019.html for further updates.

Exercise increased caution in China due to arbitrary enforcement of local laws and special restrictions on dual U.S.-Chinese citizens:

The Chinese government has asserted broad authority to prohibit U.S. citizens from leaving China by using “exit bans,” sometimes keeping U.S. citizens in China for years. The Chinese government uses exit bans coercively:
  • to compel U.S. citizens to participate in Chinese government investigations,
  • to lure individuals back to China from abroad, and
  • to aid Chinese authorities in resolving civil disputes in favor of Chinese parties.
In most cases, U.S. citizens only become aware of the exit ban when they attempt to depart China, and there is no method to find out how long the ban may continue. U.S. citizens under exit bans have been harassed and threatened.

U.S. citizens may be detained without access to U.S. consular services or information about their alleged crime. U.S. citizens may be subjected to prolonged interrogations and extended detention for reasons related to “state security.” Security personnel may detain and/or deport U.S. citizens for sending private electronic messages critical of the Chinese government.

Extra security measures, such as security checks and increased levels of police presence, are common in the Xinjiang Uighur and Tibet Autonomous Regions. Authorities may impose curfews and travel restrictions on short notice.

The Chinese government does not recognize dual nationality. U.S.-Chinese citizens and U.S. citizens of Chinese heritage may be subject to additional scrutiny and harassment, and the Chinese government may prevent the U.S. Embassy from providing consular services. Read the Safety and Security section on the country information page.

If you decide to travel to China:
Last Update: Reissued with updates to the Travel Advisory Level: Level 4 for Hubei province.

By U.S. Mission China | 24 January, 2020 | Topics: Alert, Notification:tiphat:https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/health-alert-012420/
 
MOSCOW (Sputnik) - Seven Chinese citizens have been transported from a hotel in northern Moscow to an infectious diseases hospital on suspicion of carrying an acute viral respiratory illness, a representative for the Russian capital's emergency services said on Saturday.

“Seven Chinese citizens have been transferred from the Art Voykovskaya hotel to an infectious diseases hospital,” the representative said.

Tests are ongoing and medical personnel are awaiting the results of examinations, the representative stated.

Meanwhile, the Russian Health Ministry said that seven cases of coronavirus disease, one of which was lethal, were registered in the Chinese regions located along the Russian border...:tiphat:
https://sputniknews.com/russia/2020...tory-illness-symptoms-hospitalised-in-moscow/
 
MIDDLETOWN – Wesleyan University says that a student has been placed ‘in isolation’ after returning from Asia and presenting with symptoms that could possibly be signs of 2019 Novel Coronavirus, or 2019-nCoV, the viral illness recently identified in an outbreak in Wuhan, China.

The virus can cause fever, coughing, wheezing and pneumonia. It is a member of the coronavirus family that’s a close cousin to the deadly SARS and MERS viruses that have caused outbreaks in the past.

In a statement, Wesleyan officials said:
[h=5]No diagnosis has been made. Out of an abundance of caution, we are working with the state Department of Public Health and the Centers for Disease Control to determine if the student (who was traveling internationally in Asia and presented with a fever and cough) has contracted the coronavirus or not.[/h] [h=5]The student is in isolation, and we are providing healthcare and other services. We have been in touch with everyone with whom the student had close contact since returning to campus in order to monitor them. To date, none of these individuals have exhibited symptoms of concern....:tiphat:https://fox61.com/2020/01/25/wesley...r-possible-coronavirus-was-traveling-in-asia/[/h]​
 
[h=1]They analyze a possible case of coronavirus in Granada[/h] [h=2]Another case in Vizcaya has been ruled out after performing the corresponding analyzes.[/h] Efe / Granada 25.01.2020 | 22:48
San Cecilio Hospital of Granada. EP
The Ministry of Health of the Junta de Andaluc?a has activated the national protocol to analyze if a Chinese tourist visiting Granada from Wuhan province is infected with the coronavirus , so he remains in isolation at the PTS hospital in Granada.

According to Efe informed health sources, the tourist was admitted this Saturday at the University Hospital San Cecilio of the PTS of Granada after presenting symptoms that could correspond to Chinese pneumonia, so it remains isolated...:tiphat:
https://www.farodevigo.es/espana/2020/01/25/analizan-posible-caso-coronavirus-granada/2236716.html
 
FYI: Epidemic situation of new coronavirus infection in Hubei Province on January 25, 2020
2020-01-26 06:46 | Hubei Provincial Health Committee

At 04:00 on January 25, 2020, Hubei Province reported 323 new confirmed cases of pneumonia with new coronavirus infection, 13 new deaths, and 10 new discharges. among them:

The first confirmed cases were reported in Huangshi City, Xiangyang City and Xianning City. Among the newly confirmed cases, 46 were added in Wuhan, 31 in Huangshi, 2 in Xiangyang, 15 in Shiyan, 19 in Yichang, 23 in Jingzhou, and Jingmen 17 new cases, 43 new cases in Xianning, 29 new cases in Xiaogan, 31 new cases in Suizhou, 6 new cases in Enshi Prefecture, 1 new case in Xiantao City, 2 new cases in Tianmen City; new deaths Among the cases, 7 cases were newly added in Wuhan, 1 in Huangshi, 2 in Jingzhou, and 1 in Jingmen. Among the newly discharged cases, 8 were added in Wuhan and 2 were added in Huanggang.

As of 24:00 on January 25, Hubei Province had reported a total of 1,052 confirmed cases of pneumonitis with new coronavirus infection, 129 severe cases, 52 deaths, and 85 discharged patients. among them:

Among the confirmed cases, 618 were in Wuhan, 31 in Huangshi, 20 in Shiyan, 2 in Xiangyang, 20 in Yichang, 33 in Jingzhou, 38 in Jingmen, 1 in Ezhou, and 55 in Xiaogan. There were 122 cases in Huanggang City, 43 cases in Xianning City, 36 cases in Suizhou City, 17 cases in Enshi Prefecture, 11 cases in Xiantao City, and 5 cases in Tianmen City. Among the deaths, 45 cases were in Wuhan, 1 in Huangshi, 1 in Yichang, and Jingzhou. There were 2 cases in Beijing, 1 in Jingmen, and 2 in Huanggang. Among the discharged patients, there were 40 in Wuhan and 2 in Huanggang.

At present, 7,989 close contacts have been traced, 1,085 medical observations have been lifted, and 6904 people are still receiving medical observations.

This was yesterday;
Hubei Provincial Health and Health Committee's report on pneumonia of new coronavirus infection
2020-01-25 05:01 | Hubei Provincial Health Committee

From January 24, 2020, from 04:00 to 24:00, 180 new cases of pneumonia with new coronavirus infection were added in Hubei Province (77 new cases in Wuhan, 4 new cases in Shiyan City, 13 new cases in Jingmen City, and 13 new cases in Xiaogan City). 4 cases were added, 52 cases were added in Huanggang City, 2 cases were added in Jingzhou City, 8 cases were added in Xiantao City, 5 cases were found for the first time in Suizhou City, 11 cases were found in Enshi City for the first time, 1 case was found in Ezhou City for the first time, and Tianmen City was found for the first time. 3 cases). There were 15 new deaths in the province, all in Wuhan. One case was cured and discharged from Wuhan.

As of 24:00 on January 24, 2020, Hubei Province has reported 729 cases of pneumonia with new type of coronavirus infection (including 572 cases in Wuhan City, 5 cases in Shiyan City, 1 case in Yichang City, 1 case in Ezhou City, 21 cases in Jingmen City, There were 26 cases in Xiaogan City, 10 cases in Jingzhou City, 64 cases in Huanggang City, 5 cases in Suizhou City, 11 cases in Enshi Prefecture, 10 cases in Xiantao City, and 3 cases in Tianmen City. Among them, 32 patients have been discharged and 39 have died (including 38 in Wuhan City). Case, 1 case in Yichang City). At present, 658 patients are still being treated in the hospital, of which 100 are critically ill and 57 are critically ill. They are all under isolation treatment at designated medical institutions. A total of 5,682 close contacts have been tracked, 971 have been released from medical observation, and 4711 are still receiving medical observation.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top