Discussion Thread I - 2019-nCov (new coronavirus)

[Laidback Al]

This information about R[SUB]0 [/SUB]is from: Complexity of the Basic Reproduction Number (R[SUB]0[/SUB])

The basic reproduction number (R[SUB]0[/SUB]), pronounced “R naught,” is intended to be an indicator of the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious and parasitic agents. . . . An R[SUB]0[/SUB] for an infectious disease event is generally reported as a single numeric value or low–high range, and the interpretation is typically presented as straightforward; an outbreak is expected to continue if R[SUB]0[/SUB] has a value >1 and to end if R[SUB]0[/SUB] is <1. The potential size of an outbreak or epidemic often is based on the magnitude of the R[SUB]0[/SUB] value for that event, and R[SUB]0[/SUB] can be used to estimate the proportion of the population that must be vaccinated to eliminate an infection from that population. . . .

Counting the number of cases of infection during an epidemic can be extremely difficult, even when public health officials use active surveillance and contact tracing to attempt to locate all infected persons. Although measuring the true R[SUB]0[/SUB] value is possible during an outbreak of a newly emerging infectious pathogen that is spreading through a wholly susceptible population, rarely are there sufficient data collection systems in place to capture the early stages of an outbreak when R[SUB]0[/SUB] might be measured most accurately. As a result, R[SUB]0[/SUB] is nearly always estimated retrospectively from seroepidemiologic data or by using theoretical mathematical models.

 

[hawkeye]

If I'm understanding this correctly, a 66 yr old man and his son (Chinese nationals) originally contracted the virus and it has been contracted by a child in the family located in Malaysia.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malay...laysia/1831344

Is this the first report of infection outside of China?

 

[hawkeye]

R0 appears to be 3-4, according to some estimates. This isn't going to be contained by quarantines...

check out this post (actually several posts) stating R0 of 3.8
https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220919589623803905

 

[Sharky]

check out this post (actually several posts) stating R0 of 3.8
https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220919589623803905

Here's a link to the paper referenced in that post: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1

 

[Emily]

Dr. Eric seems a very respectable scientist with no conflicts of interest that would lead him to hype this virus. But I don't agree with the references to 1918. Yes, we can travel the globe more quickly but there were mass movements back then due to world war and unhealthy conditions. I'd like to think we have made some progress in medicine since then. This coronavirus just seems like a bad cold or flu. It is not selecting for young adults and even in 1918 there were host factors.

https://academic.oup.com/milmed/article/181/8/878/4158345
"ABSTRACT
During the 1918–1919 pandemic, influenza mortality widely varied across populations and locations. Records of U.S. military members in mobilization camps (n = 40), military academies, and officer training schools were examined to document differences in influenza experiences during the fall 1918. During the fall–winter 1918–1919, mortality percentages were higher among soldiers in U.S. Army mobilization camps (0.34–4.3%) than among officer trainees (0–1.0%). Susceptibility to infection and clinical expressions of 1918 pandemic influenza varied largely based on host epidemiological characteristics rather than the inherent virulence of the virus."

 

[Vibrant62]

This coronavirus just seems like a bad cold or flu. It is not selecting for young adults and even in 1918 there were host factors.

With great respect, I dont think they would be quarantining 36m for something equivalent to a bad cold or a normal flu. China fears loss of social cohesion more than anything else. For them to do this and cancel celebrations for the single largest annual holiday in the world means they are very worried
.

 

[gsgs]

can we have a poll ...
estimated probability of >1Million deaths in USA from nCoV within 3 years

 

[Emily]

This coronavirus just seems like a bad cold or flu. It is not selecting for young adults and even in 1918 there were host factors.

With great respect, I dont think they would be quarantining 36m for something equivalent to a bad cold or a normal flu. China fears loss of social cohesion more than anything else. For them to do this and cancel celebrations for the single largest annual holiday in the world means they are very worried
.

I think it could be the fear of the unknown combined with a strain on the healthcare system if this new disease is adding to the seasonal burden. They cancelled plans here in the Seattle area, too.

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/wo...new-year-festival/U6ESBJSR5FBR7ALMQM2BNBNOFU/

There is just that one case up in Snohomish County. But he is still in the hospital as far as I know and Thursday was the earliest day they had hoped he would be released.

 

[alert]

The Twitter hashtags #SARS and #Wuhan are blowing up with people suggesting the BSL4 lab in Wuhan, the only one in China, as the origin of this virus, either through intentional or accidental release. There are several news articles out this morning, including one in the Washington Times to that effect, accusing China of working on this virus in a bioweapons program.

This is still really an animal virus, even if we haven't determined which animal and where it jumped to humans. I can't imagine someone is smart enough to engineer a SARS-like virus to spread this efficiently H2H and then accidentally release it in the lab. I just don't think we know that much about coronaviruses in general to pull that off. Also, if the lab had engineered the virus, we would have gotten these draconian measures to fight it three weeks ago when the virus was discovered as they would have known the potential of the virus.

 

[Ronan Kelly]

[h=1]Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019-nCoV[/h] View ORCID ProfileJulien Riou, View ORCID ProfileChristian L Althaus
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.917351
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?].

• Abstract
• Info/History
• Metrics
• Preview PDF

[h=2]Abstract[/h]
On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization was notified about a cluster of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in the city of Wuhan, China. Chinese authorities later identified a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as the causative agent of the outbreak. As of January 23, 2020, 655 cases have been confirmed in China and several other countries. Understanding the transmission characteristics and the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV is critically important for coordinating current screening and containment strategies, and determining whether the outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). We performed stochastic simulations of early outbreak trajectories that are consistent with the epidemiological findings to date. We found the basic reproduction number, R_0, to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval 1.4--3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of a similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the 1918 pandemic influenza. These findings underline the importance of heightened screening, surveillance and control efforts, particularly at airports and other travel hubs, in order to prevent further international spread of 2019-nCoV.
...
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.917351v1

 

[Sharky]

The very low number of discharges is also a little concerning, but I'm assuming that's a precaution to prevent people from spreading the virus. Only 38 discharges total in all of China, of which 28 of them are from the first 41 hospitalized cases.

I've read reports of many people being sent home from the hospital, without receiving treatment, due to hospitals running out of room and supplies. Doesn't that complicate the "discharge" statistic?

I hope there are samples in Wuhan of pneumonia patients from November and December to test for this virus retroactively. It's possible that this virus didn't jump to humans in that seafood market, but rather that the large crowds gathering in that market resulted in enough cases to draw attention, in much the same was that 2009 H1N1 was only first noticed when it hit large cities like Mexico City and Oaxaca, despite circulating in humans for weeks.

It's worth noting that the so-called "seafood market" was also selling a number of rare animals, in a wet market format. That kind of unsanitary environment tends to be a good breeding ground for species-jumping viruses.

 

[gsgs]

this early spread with cases showing up at several places in the world and the futile containment efforts reminds me
to 2009 H1N1. it should still be here in the flutrackers archive ... first case in xy ...

it was somehow different than with ebola,MERS,H7N7

although, I do not see a sustained transmission outside Wuhan yet (??)

 

[Shiloh]

Wonder if Beijing will eventually go into full lockdown....

Source: https://www.news18.com/news/world/c...ty-to-contain-coronavirus-report-2473173.html

News18 ?World
Beijing to Suspend Buses Entering or Leaving City to Contain
AFP
Last Updated: January 25, 2020, 6:36 PM IST

Beijing: China's capital will suspend buses that enter and exit the city boundary, state media reported on Saturday, as Chinese authorities scramble to contain a new SARS-like virus that has killed dozens in the country.

According to state-run People's Daily, "all passenger transport by road" that crosses in and out of Beijing will be suspended starting Sunday, citing "requirements of epidemic prevention and control".

China on Saturday announced plans to build a second hospital within half a month to treat more cases of the deadly coronavirus as the fast spreading virus continues to wreak havoc in the country and abroad with 41 people dead and more than 1,300 infected, dampening the Chinese New Year celebrations...

 

[AnnaLisa]

Looks like Patient 0 had no tie to the animal market.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...d-market-first-case-china-coronavirus-chinese

 

[hawkeye]

Wonder if Beijing will eventually go into full lockdown....

Source: https://www.news18.com/news/world/c...ty-to-contain-coronavirus-report-2473173.html

News18 ?World
Beijing to Suspend Buses Entering or Leaving City to Contain
...

Based on what we've seen so far - my guess is yes. And one could even reason that if they don't then the government has likely decided there is no slowing the virus and likely is giving up.

 

[Shiloh]

Good read: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/wor...uhan-authorities-used-refrigerating-strategy/

Weeks before lockdown, Wuhan authorities used 'refrigerating strategy’ to downplay coronavirus
Nathan VanderKlippeAsia correspondent
Beijing
Published 3 minutes ago

...Now, new evidence is emerging that officials in Wuhan deliberately downplayed the virus, even after formally notifying the World Health Organization on Dec. 31 about what the WHO described as “a cluster of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause.”

But the Wuhan government took a “refrigerating strategy” in the early days of the viral spread, a doctor at Wuhan Union Hospital told China News Weekly. Medical staff were banned from speaking publicly about what was taking place or accepting media interviews, the doctor said.

Police in Wuhan also said in early January that they had arrested eight people for spreading “rumours” about what was then a little-understood pneumonia affecting a growing number of people.

Another person claiming to be a Wuhan physician wrote to the National Health Commission this week claiming that doctors in the city were told not to report “viral pneumonia” in their imaging reports between Jan. 12 and Jan. 16 — a period during which local officials delivered sunny reports on a local situation under control. That meant that, during a crucial period in which cases were accumulating, local health-care workers were unable to properly raise the alarm, the person wrote. The Globe and Mail was unable to independently verify the report, which was widely circulated in China and not refuted by state media...

 

[sharon sanders]

Wonder if Beijing will eventually go into full lockdown....

Source: https://www.news18.com/news/world/c...ty-to-contain-coronavirus-report-2473173.html

News18 ?World
Beijing to Suspend Buses Entering or Leaving City to Contain
AFP
Last Updated: January 25, 2020, 6:36 PM IST

Beijing: China's capital will suspend buses that enter and exit the city boundary, state media reported on Saturday, as Chinese authorities scramble to contain a new SARS-like virus that has killed dozens in the country.

According to state-run People's Daily, "all passenger transport by road" that crosses in and out of Beijing will be suspended starting Sunday, citing "requirements of epidemic prevention and control".

China on Saturday announced plans to build a second hospital within half a month to treat more cases of the deadly coronavirus as the fast spreading virus continues to wreak havoc in the country and abroad with 41 people dead and more than 1,300 infected, dampening the Chinese New Year celebrations...

[h=1]Eight Interprovincial Bus Lines of Capital Airport Suspended[/h] January 25, 2020 21:51 Source: China News Network

　　China News Service, January 25th. According to the official Weibo message from Beijing Capital International Airport, eight inter-provincial bus lines of Beijing Capital International Airport were suspended.


http://www.chinanews.com/sh/2020/01-25/9069707.shtml

 

[hawkeye]

If I'm understanding this correctly, a 66 yr old man and his son (Chinese nationals) originally contracted the virus and it has been contracted by a child in the family located in Malaysia.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malay...laysia/1831344

Is this the first report of infection outside of China?

Here is a post that suggest transmission beyond Hubei

”8:00 pm Jan 25
5 new cases of Wuhan Coronavirus infection confirmed in Beijing. Two had no history of exposure in Hubei Province.”

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177737.shtml

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

Rumors say: tomorrow Xi Jinping will announce a nationwide travel ban in China.

 

[hawkeye]

Rumors say: tomorrow Xi Jinping will announce a nationwide travel ban in China.

I think the ban will likely be more than just travel. I'm starting to see recycling of a lot of information/videos/photos..etc. that has already been out there. Feels like we might be entering that point where non-centralized information starts drying up.