Reaction to an influenza outbreak: A case study.
First of all a big thank you to AnneZ for bringing this site to my attention (now bookmarked) http://www.hemnz.org.nz/newsletters/HEMNZ-bulletin -115.pdf
All articles were well written and the article on Sudan is one of the best basic explanations of the current situation I have read (Horn of Africa powder keg is another area I follow closely).
It has bothered me for some time that there seems to have been precious little research into trying to gauge the public?s reaction to an outbreak of pandemic H5N1. I was struck while reading the testimony of ?expert witnesses? to the Royal Society evidence gathering team who asked a number of times if there had been research on the subject and were told no one asked them to perform any. One of the major changes since 1918 has been the greatly increased personal wealth and disposable income of many living in the first world and the attend change in work history. Many now do not work for one company cradle to grave and would not see it as major problem to ride out pandemic waves by sheltering in place, the cost of stockpiling essential supplies would be of the order of a family holiday and the fear of retribution from an employer undaunting. In any event most would be able to argue unfair dismissal due to the employer not being able to provide an adequately safe working environment. Protection of family would come first ? a no brainer ? for those in none essential occupations where they felt no moral obligation. The major variable would be perceived viral virulence as this goes up I suspect the SIP rate would rise geometrically rater than arithmetically with a rampant ?killer bug? rapidly grinding commerce and social activity to a near standstill. The discussion threads on preps would lead me to believe that most of us are thinking along these lines, if not for ourselves then for our families, and we are a self selecting group of the above averagely thoughtful ? on this subject at least ? what of the population at large? Who wants to bet against this scenario
Pandemic announced with >5% CFR, every man and his dog maxes out their credit card on any available supplies then sits it out letting mortgage, utilities and other direct debits empty his bank account hoping there will not be enough judges and bailiffs around to get him out until it is all over. Survive and pick up the pieces afterwards.
Happy new year, Jonathan.
First of all a big thank you to AnneZ for bringing this site to my attention (now bookmarked) http://www.hemnz.org.nz/newsletters/HEMNZ-bulletin -115.pdf
All articles were well written and the article on Sudan is one of the best basic explanations of the current situation I have read (Horn of Africa powder keg is another area I follow closely).
It has bothered me for some time that there seems to have been precious little research into trying to gauge the public?s reaction to an outbreak of pandemic H5N1. I was struck while reading the testimony of ?expert witnesses? to the Royal Society evidence gathering team who asked a number of times if there had been research on the subject and were told no one asked them to perform any. One of the major changes since 1918 has been the greatly increased personal wealth and disposable income of many living in the first world and the attend change in work history. Many now do not work for one company cradle to grave and would not see it as major problem to ride out pandemic waves by sheltering in place, the cost of stockpiling essential supplies would be of the order of a family holiday and the fear of retribution from an employer undaunting. In any event most would be able to argue unfair dismissal due to the employer not being able to provide an adequately safe working environment. Protection of family would come first ? a no brainer ? for those in none essential occupations where they felt no moral obligation. The major variable would be perceived viral virulence as this goes up I suspect the SIP rate would rise geometrically rater than arithmetically with a rampant ?killer bug? rapidly grinding commerce and social activity to a near standstill. The discussion threads on preps would lead me to believe that most of us are thinking along these lines, if not for ourselves then for our families, and we are a self selecting group of the above averagely thoughtful ? on this subject at least ? what of the population at large? Who wants to bet against this scenario
Pandemic announced with >5% CFR, every man and his dog maxes out their credit card on any available supplies then sits it out letting mortgage, utilities and other direct debits empty his bank account hoping there will not be enough judges and bailiffs around to get him out until it is all over. Survive and pick up the pieces afterwards.
Happy new year, Jonathan.