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Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

4-ABBA

Well-known member
Today the US department of Health and Human Services stated in their update on Avian Influenza that they are expecting "several recurring pandemic waves" if a pandemic does ignite:

"It could last six to eight weeks and it could return in wave after wave with each wave lasting two to three months."

(See: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=12843 )

If this is the case, then a huge factor to consider--if possible--is what portions of the infrastructure will be able to recover in between waves.

It may not be possible to assess the recovery rate of employees, power generation, water treatment plants, petroleum availability, food production and shipment, manufacturing, banking, healthcare (etc.)

Diffferent sectors in different regions will likely experience various degrees of outages--and thus, recovery rates may vary across the board.

:surrender: Given that "several waves" of influenza pandemic may recur, and given the unknown rates of recovery above, how can one best prepare for a recurring need to shelter in place?
 
Re: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

Re: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

DIY infrastructure! ;)
(as much as possible)

Otherwise - battlefield decisions & instant retraining.

Actually, based on severe flooding here this summer, when the "flood" scenario planning proved inappropriate, the best work was done by local people who were aware of where the necessary local resources were located. Our assistant fire chief woke up ordinary folks in the middle of the night, because they had needed equipment. BTW - the local person gladly got out in the middle of the night to help.

I'd suggest locating the closest electrician, plumber, etc......their actual residence.

.
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Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

AlaskaDenise said,

"I'd suggest locating the closest electrician, plumber, etc......their actual residence."

Maybe bring him an N-95 mask as a gift first. :whistle:

Am still mulling thru this repeating waves thing. It looks like food production will have to become local for a time. VERY local.

Maybe for quite some time.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

Acquire the necessary DIY books and tools.

Develope self sufficiency.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

I keep visualizing all the "growth opportunties", i.e., beauticians digging potatoes, wedding planners planning funerals, etc.

Another issue - what happens to orphaned children and frail elderly when their working-age adult family members are gone? The term family will take on new meanings.

The most basic and important infrastructure is the family.

.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

There will be famine. I thought thru all these issues when prepping
for Y2K: The larger your crop, the more popular you will become.

This could work in small villages. What happens in cities?

...........

AlaskaDenise said,

"Another issue - what happens to orphaned children and frail elderly when their working-age adult family members are gone? The term family will take on new meanings."

Excellent question.

Small village wins again.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

AlaskaDenise said:
I keep visualizing all the "growth opportunties", i.e., beauticians digging potatoes, wedding planners planning funerals, etc.

I guess it depends on how specialized society is in each area. In reality no society is so specialized that all a beautician can do is beautify.

People often have many other skills other than the ones they use in their jobs.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

4-ABBA said:
There will be famine. I thought thru all these issues when prepping
for Y2K: The larger your crop, the more popular you will become.

This could work in small villages. What happens in cities?

...........

AlaskaDenise said,

"Another issue - what happens to orphaned children and frail elderly when their working-age adult family members are gone? The term family will take on new meanings."

Excellent question.

Small village wins again.

I would hope city folks will also take in orphans and abandoned elderly & disabled.

.
 
Compassionate Society

Compassionate Society

The best method to cope with a pandemic that occurs in waves is to shelter-in-place while embracing society.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
Establish a ?safe zone? in your home or apartment. In this zone reside the persons who do not venture out. The cooking facilities, in-home school, and sleeping quarters are here.
<o:p></o:p>
Designate an area for the ?bread winner? to come and go, hopefully through a separate entrance. Keep the two areas separated by a door that is not opened. Make sure that this person has personal protective equipment and other essentials available in this area. Deliver food using paper and plastic utensils to the entrance to this person?s area, as needed.
<o:p></o:p>
Be prepared for this arrangement to continue for weeks at a time.
<o:p></o:p>
Create your own village no matter where you are.

Engage your immediate neighbors in a Neighborhood Watch type program for mutual protection. This is essential. Humans, by nature, are ?herd animals?. We have survived throughout the ages by embracing society for mutual benefit. A pandemic is no different. Establish committees for the replenishment of food, water, medicines, fuel, care of the dependent, etc. Determine the qualifications of those around you for best assignment. If you are a member of a faith-based group, organize a distribution system for basic items. Assign duties to various members depending on their expertise. Use the groups? facilities for storage or a clinic.
<o:p></o:p>
A pandemic will be a test of man?s humanity to man. What have we learned about survival throughout the millennia? Together we will survive and flourish no matter what the challenge. It is our nature, our heritage, and our future.
<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
<o:p>Neighborhood Watch forum:</o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
<o:p>http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=596</o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

I think the utilities will all be back on line between waves, but I don't think consumer goods will all be readily available. And prices will be out of sight.

Don't count on gasoline being available between waves.
Don't count on anything going back to normal in the short span of time between waves of death.

Which means you might need a bicycle...and a bike trailer...and a good lock for both.
And if you can afford it, buy 2 bikes.

The church rummage sales have used bikes cheap...$10-$20.
I bought 4 old bikes this summer and 1 used bike trailer. (It hauls 125 lbs.)

And an old rusty bike will be less likely to be stolen, and it will get you where you are going just the same.
And be sure to have extra tires and tubes and a pump for the bike, reflectors and a light if you are going out at night, and a basket,and lubricating oil, and bike tools, & a helmet. And an instruction booklet on how to keep a bike in repair. (It might get a lot more use than we think.)

Taking a friend or 2 along is best, so one or 2 can watch the bikes while the other is shopping.
And ponchos are needed for biking in rainy weather...and wool hunting socks if the weather is cold. And waterproof boots and clothing if walking or biking in the rain.
I have an old folding grocery cart in the event I am left without any wheels.

I am slowly accumulating these items...:(

I am an experienced gardener. I plan on growing mostly root crops, as foragers will most likely raid gardens and pick the beans, tomatoes, squash, etc. But I doubt they will bring a shovel and do any digging..
And I will not plant in rows. I will scatter the plants all together, which will make it look like a weed infestation, more than a well planned garden. So I hope this discourages some thieves. If you are visible from the road, finish your gardening before 7 AM. This is when a lot of folks get up.

And I will pick tomatoes as soon as they get a little yellow on them, as they will ripen indoors. My neighbor had all her red tomatoes stolen this year, 1 by 1, by another neighbor & her daughter.
Grow beets. You can eat the greens. They are very nutritious & good in soups.

I have a large supply of seeds from last year, and plan on buying many packages for giving to the neighbors, should we get a pandemic soon.
I don't think seeds will be available. Seeds 1 or 2 years old will germinate, not all, but most. Lock up your shovels & gardening equipment indoors. They will be stolen.

Most old folks can garden very well, but you might have to turn over the soil and do some planting for them.

And if you can, buy food and other consumer goods NOW.

Food and other supplies will be very expensive after each wave, especially if the un-prepped now start hoarding. I fugure prices will go up as much as 500% during a pandemic. And most items will not be available. Rationing might be the norm.

And there may not be supplies of everything, such as shoes, clothing, batteries, or any other imported item you really need more of. Many of our items are imported, and their reappearance on store shelves is dependant on overseas factories getting back in business again. This may be impossible for many in a short span of time. And some ports may not be operational.
So buy now.

Find out where all the pick-your-own farms are in your area, and get your canning supplies (and books) now.
http://www.pickyourown.org/

(There are a lot more farms than are listed in these websites)
If you have neglected your fruit trees, buy fruit tree spray and fertilizer for them, and get them back into production.
And plant trees, berries, etc. now. It just may be that this pandemic may not get started for a while, which allow your plants to get into production in time.
http://www.starkbros.com/index.jsp

And have a yard sale now. Luxury items will have very little value during and after a pandemic. Turn those unwanted items into cash for preps.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

I had an interesting discussion with an economics PhD student the other day. We talked about the Asian Crisis that began in 1997 in Thailand and spread across Asia and then the rest of the world. One of the dramatic conclusions he is coming to in his thesis is that even if two countries have hardly any apparent economic or political ties, one of them's bankruptcy or default can devastate the other in ways that are almost impossible to predict. A fall in the ruble was instantly felt in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina. Now take that scenario global, and insert the devastation caused by a flu pandemic wave affecting numerous countries at any one time. A country could escape the wave relatively unharmed, but still suffer tremendously if those other countries it imports from and exports to, if it's imports of fossil fuels, if it's currency exchange rates are in disarray. This seemingly unaffected at first country would then affect others in big ways. Just remember that the whole Asian crisis began as a result of the problems in one country--Thailand--with less than 1% of the world's population and ranked 97th in terms of per capita GDP. Now imagine what would happen if the same thing happened to, for instance, a Western European country or a major oil-exporting country.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

Those countries with little manufacturing output and a heavy dependency on imports, and export of services and skills (service industries) will be most heavily hit. The UK is a classic example of this where services have been outsurced abroad eg. customer service departments, telesales departments and where manufacturing output is chronically low and dependent on imports from the far east and third world countries.

I dont know how true this is of the US, but for example, cotton is not grown in the UK - it is all imported. Nylon and synthetic materials also. A huge proportion of food production falls into this area of imports also. Farming capabilities cannot be bolstered overnight with a sudden switch of crops etc. And, in the global market nothing is stored for very long (JIT seasonality of global demand), so long term storage capabilities do not, on the whole, exist - or not on UK soil (EU food mountains from subsidised food production - I wonder where they are?).

I concur with many people who have observed that paradoxically, third world countries with little dependency on imports (they cannot afford them) may fare best in a severe pandemic. Parhaps a pandemic will be a great economic leveller - but let us hope that the third world plays catch up rather than us all descending to that level!
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

I give one example, and then I have to go take an exam on cell division.

Indonesia. Exports greater than $86 billion worth of stuff--comprising, oil, natural gas, bauxite (aluminum), silver, tin, gold, lumber, copper, coal, textiles, appliances, etc. Indonesia continuously exports masses of raw materials to countries like China, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, the US, the EU. Is it SO hard to imagine that a pandemic could begin in Indonesia? If it sickened port workers, ship crews, petroleum refineries, lumberyards, miners, any or everything, and that continuous supply was interrupted, even for just two weeks, I'm willing to bet that a large number of factories in Asia would have to stop--perhaps long before the virus even made it there. Without those Chinese and Korean replacement parts and equipment continuously being made and shipped to other factories throughout the world--that we have all begun to think were endless, refineries, power plants, water treatment plants, manufacturers, drug makers, just about everything might stop working after their equipments stopped working and they couldn't get replacements. It's a pretty frightening possibility, I must say. Anyway, take care and have a good day.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

Sharpe said:
Just remember that the whole Asian crisis began as a result of the problems in one country--Thailand--with less than 1% of the world's population and ranked 97th in terms of per capita GDP. Now imagine what would happen if the same thing happened to, for instance, a Western European country or a major oil-exporting country.

EXACTLY EXACTLY EXACTLY! We are dealing with hundreds--if not thousands--of intersecting biological / economical / social equations...wherein the outcome of one affects the result in many others.

Bird Flu is an event happening in linear time, but with non-linear inputs / consequences. Each wave will build on the results / of the preceeding one.

Thus, what works for people in villages / small country towns will not work in cities.

***** WHAT WILL WORK FOR PEOPLE IN THE CITIES...IF THERE IS NO GASOLINE...OR RUNNING WATER....OR PLUMBING? *****​

Sorry for "yelling" in caps. I am just afraid cities are at huge risk here.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

Jonesie:
your...
and get your canning supplies (and books) now.

Also include a large supply of lids (but I believe the rubber seal may not last long) or new reusable lids (not caps). Thanks to Goatlady for the "reusable" tip. They can be seen at http://canninglids.com/index2.html 3 dozen reg. mouth lids are $13.90 with a lifetime guarantee.

A neighbor planted her food garden within her flower garden. If you looked closely among the roses - you'd see tomatoes. I was amazed how much food she grew without it showing.

.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

This is a great thread!

I have an open floor plan, the only rooms with doors are bedrooms, bathrooms, and the laundry room, the basement and second floor are all hugely open to the main floor so the seperate entrance idea will not work for us, so our plan is to use our camper as a mini apartment for the bread winner or as a unexpected guest quarantine.


I have been thinking about my families gardening problem. The problems as I see them for us are:

  • I may not be able to reep a full harvest due to theft or animal damage.
  • Do I really want to draw attention to our home from the type of person that would steal from a garden, because they may not stop at the garden.
  • What if I run out of canned vegetables and everything is covered with snow?
  • What if a problem ruins my crop, I need a backup.
At this time I have a 3-tier plan (subject to change).

First, I plan to hide plants here and there in my flower beds outside, the deer may find the plants but in the past they have, for the most part, tended to shy away from the house. Most people won't notice these plants unless they walk up close to the house and are looking. My house is almost completely hidden by woods and is about 300 ft off of a lightly traveled road.

Second, I will try to grow as much as possible both indoors and outdoors, somewhat hidden from public view on our deck with plants potted in dirt.

Third I am planning to use hydroponics hidden inside. The hydroponics and the dirt pots will be on different floors of the house in case of infestation. I also plan to make a room by hanging plastic around the hydroponics, just in case.

Though I will not use them unless absolutely necessary, I have the appropriate chemicals on hand for various diseases or infestation.


FYI

We tried an inexpensive hydroponics setup last winter with 5 gallon plastic buckets, plastic totes and aquarium pumps. We did very well until the aphids appeared out of nowhere in the middle of winter in my basement. I still haven't figured out how that happened, anyway I was completely unprepared, and the aphids flourished like crazy, within a couple of days we had a BIG colony and lost the entire crop. We plan to try again this year.

I hope those of you who have never gardened take the time to grow a "practice" garden. No matter how long you have been gardening, there are occasional surprises that can destroy all or part of your crop, try to have a backup plan.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

4-ABBA said:
EXACTLY EXACTLY EXACTLY! We are dealing with hundreds--if not thousands--of intersecting biological / economical / social equations...wherein the outcome of one affects the result in many others.

Bird Flu is an event happening in linear time, but with non-linear inputs / consequences. Each wave will build on the results / of the preceeding one.

Thus, what works for people in villages / small country towns will not work in cities.

***** WHAT WILL WORK FOR PEOPLE IN THE CITIES...IF THERE IS NO GASOLINE...OR RUNNING WATER....OR PLUMBING? *****
Sorry for "yelling" in caps. I am just afraid cities are at huge risk here.
The cities have advantages and disadvantages just like every other area in a pandemic. No one will be untouched.

The cities may experience "brown outs" in electricity and other essential services not unlike many modern second world countries today. They live this way everyday without mishap. We will have to adjust our "privileged" lifestyle to mimic what our parents and grandparents experienced during World War II.

Will this be inconvenient? Yes. Will it be permanent? No. What can we do, collectively, to benefit society? How can we help our fellow man? How can this civil society also be a compassionate society?

It is time to reassess what is important in life. Reach out to your family, friends, neighbors, and communities. This is the solution to any shortages that may develop.

Create your own "village".
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

per my intensive gardening book, it takes about 4000 sq. ft to grow a year's supply of food for one person. Can you supplement with wildcrafted food? Hunting? (Did I just suggest hunting and gathering??:D )

YOu could follow the example of some "growers" and use underutilized park areas.

.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

also remember that the waves will be occurring at the sam time and not at the same time. It will be like a group singing row-row-row your boat in a round. The waves will not be all occurring from January 1-March 1 around the world, so the recovery process will not be a smooth or anticipated one. This will complicate the recovery process for a very long period of time. Additionally when will it be 'safe' from the virus? It could be years. I wonder if any of us will ever feel really 'safe'..... Interesting to see how many of the newer homes are now starting to have pantries again. Wonder what other long term affects and influences will occur. We really can't even use the storage of warehouse in cities since the old buildings have been reconstituted the old warehouses and factories in towns and cities are now all loft condos! No space to store stuff. Open space and high ceilings will be less useful, expensive spaces. Homes in the 10' to 12' ceilings will certainly cost lots more to heat. We really have not thought too far ahead.
TM
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

I believe Osterholm said it would take 3 years to work it's way through the various waves & establish sufficient herd immunity to bring it to a reasonable slowdown.

Row-row-row-your-boat? Also possibly musical chairs, with the participants being the migratory birds.

.
 
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