Discussion - DRC: At least 31 confirmed deaths in an undiagnosed outbreak - November 30, 2024

[Treyfish]

:tiphat:same thing it was this morning... acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles or malaria​

406 cases reported
WHO: “Disease X” in Congo could be the result of malaria or Covid-19

The speculation about “Disease X” in the Congo continues. The WHO believes it is possible that known diseases are the trigger. December 8, 2024, 3:59 p.m.
Geneva. The mysterious "Disease X" in the southwest of the Democratic Republic of Congo could, according to an assessment by the World Health Organization (WHO), also be due to known causes. Based on the symptoms, "acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles and malaria are being considered as possible causes," the WHO said.



In the remote Panzi region in Kwango province, 406 cases have now been reported. 31 people have died. Most of the cases affect children, especially those under five. All of them are severely malnourished. The health authorities in the affected province had already spoken of more than 130 deceased patients a few days ago - unlike the report from the local health crisis center, this also includes people who died at home without medical treatment but had the same symptoms.
Laboratory tests should uncover the cause

"Malaria is a common disease in the area and may be causing or contributing to the cases," the WHO reported. "Laboratory tests are currently underway to determine the exact cause. At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths."
:tiphat:

​https://www.rnd.de/gesundheit/kongo...oder-covid-19-7CZ4LPBXBFOMTAZKWUYBEWX2GE.html

 

[alert]

:tiphat:same thing it was this morning... acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles or malaria​

Not "or", but probably "and". With the exception of measles, which may or may not be part of this outbreak, seems likely all of the above, plus malnutrition, are in play here. What's not clear is if anything else is as well.

 

[Treyfish]

They didn't tell us anything, just a list of could be's that we've seen for more than a week. Where are the test results? they went there without any kind of test kits? Water and masks only?

 

[alert]

I don't think they have any test results yet. Maybe they got bad samples or maybe they haven't been able to get the samples to a lab yet. I feel that we'd have gotten announcements even if nothing was detected, because they're going to test for Ebola and Marburg (and DRC is very good at detecting those) and get negative results because this doesn't look anything like those outbreaks, which they'll announce to try to reduce the fear, even if they don't have any positives.

In terms of what you bring to fight this outbreak without diagnosis, I'd assume we're talking things like antibiotics, vitamins, perhaps anti-malarials, maybe measles or flu vaccines if that's suspect.

 

[Treyfish]

.Get a helocopter half way, or a motorcycle relay...horse and buggy. Plenty of talk about problems but don't see any quick resolutions. Another 48 hrs for results / must not be that bad.. plenty of time to say nothing and make sandwiches.I see an unconfirmed tweet saying it's not a novel pathogen supposedly from a WHO source.

 

[sharon sanders]

Please see the news thread here. link

 

[Pathfinder]

:tiphat:same thing it was this morning... acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles or malaria​


"Malaria is a common disease in the area and may be causing or contributing to the cases," the WHO reported. "Laboratory tests are currently underway to determine the exact cause. At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths."
:tiphat:

​https://www.rnd.de/gesundheit/kongo...oder-covid-19-7CZ4LPBXBFOMTAZKWUYBEWX2GE.html

Malaria is not contagious.

...
Ways malaria does not spread

Malaria is not contagious. People can't spread malaria to other people like a cold or the flu. You can't get malaria through casual contact (sitting next to a person with malaria), close physical contact, or even sexual contact.
...
https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/causes/...es not spread,contact, or even sexual contact.
​

Hat tip Michael Coston

Excerpt from the WHO report:
...
Cases have been reported in family clusters, suggesting potential transmission dynamics within households, though additional investigation is needed.
...
Based on the above rationale, the overall risk level to the affected communities is assessed as high.

At the national level, the risk is considered moderate due to the localized nature of the outbreak within the Panzi health zone in Kwango province. However, the potential for spread to neighboring areas, coupled with gaps in surveillance and response systems, this assessment underscores the need for heightened preparedness.

At the regional and global levels, the risk remains low at this time. However, the proximity of the affected area to the border with Angola raises concerns about potential cross-border transmission, and continued monitoring and cross-border coordination will be essential to mitigate this risk.
...
Cross-border collaboration with Angola is also crucial to monitor for similar cases and prevent potential cross-border transmission.
...
Further investigations are needed to clarify whether anaemia observed in severe cases is linked to the outbreak. The main hypothesis of respiratory illness should be validated by studying its relationship with seasonal influenza and other potential factors. Additionally, historical outbreaks, such as that of typhoid fever which was reported in the health zone two years ago, should be reviewed to identify recurring vulnerabilities that may inform current response efforts.
...

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546

------------
The typhoid fever outbreak in Panzy was reported here:

DRC - Typhoid outbreak 2023
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...u-z/typhoid/969536-drc-typhoid-outbreak-2023​

 

[alert]

I'm assuming given the rapid tests, that the malaria is probably the primary driver of this outbreak, but malaria is not respiratory (or contagious).

I'm expecting that some of the tests start coming back positive for influenza or COVID (or both), given the reports of surges in both diseases in Kinshasa.

 

[Pathfinder]

'This is very rare' - Why are children mysteriously dying in the Congo?

James Wilson
12.52 11 Dec 2024
...
On The Pat Kenny Show, Trinity Professor of Experimental Immunology Kingston Mills said it is still too early to give “precise answers” as information is “still sketchy”.
...
“The worrying thing is the death rate is very high - the WHO estimates it’s at 7% - and that’s very high for an infectious disease if you consider that with COVID-19 the death rate was 1%.”
...
“Although yesterday, there was a report in the Guardian saying that they’d started the test and the first 12 samples, 10 of them were positive for malaria.

“Malaria is endemic in this region of Africa, so it is possible they already had malaria and then they got something else - a comorbidity.

“Malaria itself wouldn’t have respiratory symptoms which these patients have - so, it’s unlikely to be exclusively malaria. It’s more likely to be some other infectious disease.”
...
“The death rate wouldn’t fit with malaria anyway because the death rate for malaria is not that high,” he said.
...
“The possibilities are things like a variant of influenza - because the symptoms are very influenza-like - and that can be detected pretty readily.”
...
https://www.newstalk.com/news/this-...ldren-mysteriously-dying-in-the-congo-2115914

 

[Treyfish]

:tiphat:Thanks, Pathfinder! They will have to admit something soon.

….This is really the definition of remote,” says Placide Mbala, a virologist and head of epidemiology at the DRC’s National Institute of Biomedical Research. He explains that limited connectivity and delayed sample collection have hampered diagnosis efforts. Specimens collected initially were unsuitable for analysis, but a team from the DRC’s Ministry of Public Health has now gathered higher-quality samples, says Mbala, who is part of the team.….
:tiphat:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/...ase-x-outbreak-might-be-malaria-what-we-know/

 

[somebodyoutthere]

“It’s not even certain that it’s an infectious disease,” Professor Mills said.”

Really?
​

 

[Treyfish]

From Pathfinders post #53

Maï-ndombe: teams of technicians requested to identify an epidemic of unknown origin (a national deputy)

December 10, 2024

Kinshasa, December 10, 2024 (ACP).- Teams of technicians from the Ministry of Public Health, Hygiene and Social Security were requested by a national deputy to identify an epidemic of unknown origin in some territories of the province of Maï-Ndombé, southwest of the Democratic Republic of Congo, we learned Monday from a parliamentary source.

"Following the Minister of Health who was considering sending a team of technicians to the province of Kwango where an epidemic is raging that has not yet been very well identified, I would like to plead for the involvement of the National Assembly if we can kill two birds with one stone, to also send teams to the territories of Bolobo, Yumbi and Lokolela" , revealed Séverin Bamany, national deputy.​

:magnify:

​

Yumbi is a town and territory of Mai-Ndombe in the Democratic Republic of the Congo . It lies on the eastern bank of the Congo River between Bolobo and Lukolela . [SUP][ 1 ][/SUP] The town of Yumbi is the headquarters of Yumbi Territory and has a population of approximately 30,000. [SUP][ 2 ] [ 3 ][/SUP]

Alot of violence and a lot of people in this possible outbreak area. Figure they would need protection to go there to do anything.

Eight Mobondo militiamen were killed in clashes with the army on the night of Monday to Tuesday, December 10, in the Ipuka village in the Popokabaka territory (kwango).
These clashes occurred following an assault by these militiamen on this village.
The same night, these Mobondo raided a farm located not far from the Masiakwa and Aviation villages in the Kwamouth territory (Mai-Ndombe). They burned about ten people alive...

:tiphat:

​
https://www.radiookapi.net/2024/12/...-mobondo-tues-par-les-fardc-popokabakaarmee​​

 

[alert]

COVID-19 reportedly ruled out. Interesting that we would get that result first. Next most important thing to test for is influenza. I'm wondering if it's feasible to send Tamiflu to the affected area now due to that overwhelming likelihood.

If influenza tests come back negative as well, perhaps RSV should be tested for due to the majority of cases being under 5 years old.

While the number of cases seems to be increasing, the number of deaths does not, suggesting that this is treatable with whatever they have there. It might be useful to know if that includes antibiotics, as that would determine whether to test for things like whooping cough or plague.

 

[Treyfish]

:tiphat:The Al Jazeera report said most of the people admit touching a wild animal before getting sick. We already know it’s flu like and spreading in households.
what wild animal could they have contact with? And are they killing and eating it?
Bat, rat, cat, pig? Monkeys? Armadillo types? Deer? Maybe nothing, maybe something they see everywhere, every day?

 

[alert]

With most of the cases under age 5, I don't know what kind of animal contact they might have (and be able to admit to). Wondering if that's a red herring. I'd expect adult males to have the most animal contact.

If it really is zoonotic, perhaps plague needs a closer look. There's no way this is 500 cases of plague, but you could have a couple dozen cases against a background of malaria and malnutrition.

 

[Treyfish]

:tiphat: Thats it, all the reports same the same thing, without verification from the WHO or anyone else. I guess it's respiratory malaria??
What indicates a "severe form of malaria"? Killer Malaria wouldn't be any better than regular mycoplasmic pneumonia. I think the guy is stalling and wants to say something, why say anything if it's not confirmed by the CDC or WHO?
..A case of magic cow syndrome.


Congo's health ministry says unknown disease is severe malaria

LUBUMBASHI, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Democratic Republic of Congo's health ministry said on Tuesday that a previously unidentified disease circulating in the country's Panzi health zone is a severe form of malaria. ...

"The mystery has finally been solved. It's a case of severe malaria in the form of a respiratory illness... and weakened by malnutrition," the health ministry said in a statement.​..
:tiphat:
https://resiliencesystem.org/congos-unknown-disease-outbreak-severe-malaria-health-ministry

 

[alert]

I wonder if "severe form" is code for a more severe strain of the parasite. I believe there are at least five strains of Plasmodium that affect humans and this might be a more severe one like P. falciparum.....

Malaria does not cause respiratory symptoms.

 

[Treyfish]

P. falciparum is the deadliest malaria parasite and the most prevalent on the African continent. P. vivax is the dominant malaria parasite in most countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa. The other malaria species which can infect humans are P. malariae, P. ovale and P. knowlesi.​

 

[blacknail]

https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2...a_dal_congo_muore_febbre_emorragica-423892610

google translation:

A 55-year-old man living in Treviso [redacted] who recently returned from a trip to Congo, died due to fever with hemorrhage. The case was reported by the public hygiene of the ASL Marca trevigiana.

​

​

 

[Treyfish]

:tiphat: more on severe malaria, seems plausible but the respiratory stuff is missing and WHO said no definitive results yet so there ya go

In 2022, some 249 million cases of malaria worldwide resulted in an estimated 608,000 deaths, with 80 percent being 5 years old or less.[SUP][5][/SUP] Nearly all malarial deaths are caused by P. falciparum, and 95% of such cases occur in Africa. In Sub-Saharan Africa, almost 100% of cases were due to P. falciparum, whereas in most other regions where malaria is endemic, other, less virulent plasmodial species predominate.[SUP][6]

......[/SUP]Unlike other malarias, which show regular periodicity of fever, falciparum, though exhibiting a 48-hour cycle, usually presents as irregular bouts of fever. This difference is due the ability of P. falciparum merozoites to invade a large number of RBCs sequentially without coordinated intervals, which is not seen in other malarial parasites.[SUP][68][/SUP] P. falciparum is therefore responsible for almost all severe human illnesses and deaths due to malaria, in a condition called pernicious or complicated or severe malaria. Complicated malaria occurs more commonly in children under age 5,[SUP][46][/SUP] and sometimes in pregnant women (a condition specifically called pregnancy-associated malaria).[SUP][78][/SUP] Women become susceptible to severe malaria during their first pregnancy. Susceptibility to severe malaria is reduced in subsequent pregnancies due to increased antibody levels against variant surface antigens that appear on infected erythrocytes.[SUP][79][/SUP] But increased immunity in the mother increases susceptibility to malaria in newborn babies.[SUP][78]

​​​​​​​[/SUP]​