• FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
  • We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.

Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

Re: 1918 Pan Flu: Infection Rate and CFR

Re: 1918 Pan Flu: Infection Rate and CFR

Hakeye -- It would be very interesting to trace down to the original info source of the "2%" CFR for the 1918 Pandemic.

Wouldnt it be interesting if the 2% universally quoted is factually understated?
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

That's what I'm starting to think. I'm not a scientist, however looking at the infection at this monestary and the CFR...it would indicate that 1918 was "the superbug", and that hopes of H5N1 "only being that of 1918" are in vain.

-
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

hawkeye said:
That's what I'm starting to think. I'm not a scientist, however looking at the infection at this monestary and the CFR...it would indicate that 1918 was "the superbug", and that hopes of H5N1 "only being that of 1918" are in vain.

-
Click to expand...

The attack rate may have been low--but the CFR much higher than what may have been passed down by "urban legend."

(I am thinking that the attack rate was not that high because while the city of Philadelphia turned out in droves for the War Bonds parade in the fall (?) of 1918, a relatively small percentage of people got the disease.)

Does the book say what the CFR was when it first broke out in the US military? (I.e., wonder of the Army tracked the actual death rate...)
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

Brevig is where they dug the bodies out of the permafrost so they could get a sample of the virus. The CFR varied, some areas were hit harder than others.
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

Seems to me, the virus of 1918 went unabated, H5N1 has been "snuffed-out" a couple of times...therefore, IMO, this isn't a valid argument. Is it possible the virus will be a strong virus because it remains festering?


source:
Some have attempted to take comfort in the fact that the virus has been in existence for almost ten years and hasn?t sparked a pandemic yet.Evidence suggests, though, that the 1918 virus was ?smouldering? for at least 11 years before it went pandemic.
Click to expand...
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

Well this also brings up an interesting predicament for all of us who plan on sitting this out with our preps: what do we do about the mail???

Is there some way to sanitize mail before we open it?
Or will we have to open the mail outside with gloves and a mask on and then not bring it in the house?
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

Daisy said:
Well this also brings up an interesting predicament for all of us who plan on sitting this out with our preps: what do we do about the mail???

Is there some way to sanitize mail before we open it?
Or will we have to open the mail outside with gloves and a mask on and then not bring it in the house?
Click to expand...

Methinks that *If* the mail is infected and contagious, there wont be many postal workers working. Also...a suggestion: Lightly mist it with rubbing alcohol in a plant mister-spray bottle before you bring it inside.
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

perhaps leave it in the sun? (better hope there isn't any rain :confused:)
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

We will be cancelling our mail and newspaper and our Teletimes. We will use the radio and TV for news.
We ordered a pizza the other nite and the person who brought it had a bad cold, we both took note of it. We felt very odd over it. Now whenever someone is ill, we try to take extra precautions.
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

Brevig Mission is along the Ocean & catches all the strong winter winds. These communities, even today must have well-sealed homes. Back in 1918 they were probably still very very small....a perfect germ incubator.

In the more distant past, these people burned seal oil lamps for light - filling the homes with smoke. Almost everyone had black lung. I don't know if this practice had stopped by 1918 at that location. Also, 1918 store foods didn't contain the ascorbate as did their earlier raw meat, so their immune systems may have lacked that important substance.

So envision yourself, cutoff from world news of a terrible disease, taking your supplies home to your tiny home on the windswept shores in the Arctic.

It would be interesting to know if those who survived were the native residents or the missionaries, ie., did prior exposure to influenza impact their genetics.

See Brevig Mission in the middle of this map, and visualize a strong winter storm blowing off the ocean.....
brevig mission.gif

An interesting snip from an NPR story...
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5315419

While other Arctic communities turned people away with armed guards, Brevig Mission took in the sick and orphaned during the pandemic. So many people died so quickly, village council member Rita Olanna says her grandfather told her even the sky seemed sad.
Click to expand...
 
"Quarantining" paper

"Quarantining" paper

I asked both Dr. Richard Webby and the CDC about this topic several months ago. CDC released a study of life expectancy of A influenza on porous surfaces and solid surfaces in the 1980s. Both Dr. Webby and CDC said that the A virus would become inert within 12-24 hours on paper or clothing. That also applies to bird flu.

My interest as chair of the Florida CIO Council's Pandemic Committee was to make State agencies aware of the need to "quarantine" paper for a day before sending it to homes to be posted into computer systems. Also, then people would need to "quarantine" the paper for another day, just to be safe.

My recommendation is to take mail and open it in a garage using gloves. Put it under an ultraviolet light for a day if at all possible, or near a window in full sunlight. Destroy all junk mail immediately by throwing it away in your garbage can outside the home. Do not introduce junk mail into the home at all.

Personally, I see no way that government can perform its duties to the people under a socially distanced environment. People will still need to come into their offices to input data. Government does not have the resources to fully enable social distancing and will still have to maintain what I call "retail operations" for persons who lose their jobs (unemployment comensation, social benefits). So the challenge to government is to maintain computer room/data center ops while maintaining retail government operations at the storefront/office level. To do this, government must invest heavily in physical protectants such as gloves, masks and sanitizing gel.

I would be curious to know just how many local and state governments are buying the gear necessary to entice employees to come to work in a pandemic.
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

I would be curious to know just how many local and state governments are buying the gear necessary to entice employees to come to work in a pandemic.
Click to expand...

Excellent point Scott. This is my area of most concern. Somehow when the Feds tell everyone to stockpile at least for 2 weeks the state and local agencies failed to understand that they were included. Same for all employers. I also agree with you that more emphasis is needed on continuity of operations during a pandemic.
JT
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

Please allow me to land here,

Continuity of operations will probably save lives of more people than the anti-virals, PPE and vaccine development.

Continuity of Operations doesn't mean continuity ''wall to wall'', so to speak, but continuity of as much as possible of the essential services. This will indeed reduce 'morbidity, hopelessness and mortality''.

As for the regions, well, some regions happenned to be bless by the resources that mother earth has granthed them, lakes with fishes, forests with wild meat, land that can be cultivated.

The regionals will have to managed to produce more, to not expect more money (they are use to that), the cities will need their water, their fishes, their wild meat, their vegetables and fruits. On top of this regions will have to learn fast, via technological transferts, how to create micro-industry of transformation so that when it gets where it is destined, it is ready to consume, the KISS system. (keep it simple)

SO, Cities dwellers will have to maintain essential services for their city, share the extra with neighbords, maintain macro-managment imperatives, while, regionals, will have to adapt fast amd provide to cotoes what they cannot produce.

There is hope indeed, openness, adaptation amd wise execution granths this hope.

JMHO

Snowy
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

Snowy Owl said:
Please allow me to land here,

Continuity of operations will probably save lives of more people than the anti-virals, PPE and vaccine development. .....
Click to expand...
I have to agree with Snowy Owl here. Assuming an attack rate of 30-40%, more than half the population will not become ill during a pandemic. To avoid collateral death and health issues, it will be imperative to keep basic services functioning for those who do not become ill. Otherwise, the mortality rate (not the CFR) will skyrocket.
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

Laidback Al said:
I have to agree with Snowy Owl here. Assuming an attack rate of 30-40%, more than half the population will not become ill during a pandemic. To avoid collateral death and health issues, it will be imperative to keep basic services functioning for those who do not become ill. Otherwise, the mortality rate (not the CFR) will skyrocket.
Click to expand...

And so we come full circle: Are organizations involved in "essential services" getting setup so that their employees will feel confident in their ability to avoid sickness while going to (or staying at) work?

One of the most critical essentiaL services--aside from water / power / heating -- is interstate transportation of foodstuffs / fuels / medicine / currency. Will these employees want to travel out of state away from their loved ones during a pandemic? And will they want to do so if they have no way of knowing if they will be able to make it back home?
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

4-ABBA said:
And so we come full circle: Are organizations involved in "essential services" getting setup so that their employees will feel confident in their ability to avoid sickness while going to (or staying at) work?

One of the most critical essentiaL services--aside from water / power / heating -- is interstate transportation of foodstuffs / fuels / medicine / currency. Will these employees want to travel out of state away from their loved ones during a pandemic? And will they want to do so if they have no way of knowing if they will be able to make it back home?
Click to expand...

If it means putting shelves on their own neighborhood store shelves, I say yes they will.

Throughout history people have left home to peform actions necessary to protect their homeland. If committments have become so self-centered, then nations are doomed. I trust there are enough people capable of seeing the larger picture who will do what is necessary.

.
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

Ive been wondering - AD,I'm not sure that that holds true for the majority of esential service workers (And I think truckdrivers and other transporttion specialists count), but I hope it does- if for no other reason they need to keep income coming in....

anyway, what Ive been wondering is even if the number of truckers is down due to illness and fear- there may well be a decrease in total number of shipments to be transported, wont there?

Hopefully it will average out- less drivers/fuel, but also less nonessential goods to be transported due to decreased demand and production,so the available human and critical transportation resources get allocated to high priority items and supplies.

Continuity of operations will probably save lives of more people than the anti-virals, PPE and vaccine development.
Click to expand...

Snowy got it right. That sit in a nutshell; simple, profound and very much the real goal.
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

I have heard discussion from our county public health director that truck drivers are considered essential personnel for the community. So I can say that the emergency planners are addressing the issue. I do not know the specific recommendations. Maybe the union or National Transportation Safety Board or Department of Transportation has something in writing.
JT
 
Re: Discussion: Bird Flu, A virus of our own hatching

I was part of meetings concerning truck drivers. The PPr are within the army forces and portiomn of it is for the trucks drivers. And the most important sunject was the physical security for them.

The army has clearly state that teams of 60 people would accompany all convoy so no one will steal the contents.

Despite the bad reputation of the armies since few years, Northcomm, has done a lot, they already have identify wich critical group will be help by them and with provided security.

Despite all the eventual problems, more and more capable groups have idwntified what must be done, and I can assure you that they will do it.

Snowy
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top