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Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas - Died

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

I'm in Dallas, so the news conference is on every channel.

Dallas is in trouble! Hopefully CDC will have a little chat with them. What were they thinking - if not for themselves and their families, then the example they're communicating.
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It seems quite the opposite. The CDC is CLEARLY driving this bus. The mantra is NO DANGER, and the CDC is orchestrating Dallas officials.

Dani has it pegged. It was clear in the news conference that not everyone is taking their wooden nickels, though. I thought one reporter was going to give Dr Bell a stroke.
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Dallas news crews have helicopters over the cleanup.

Surreal...
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Jim Oliveros said:
They're using the "P" word.
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MHSC has posted on another thread that the news conference starts at 3:30pm
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Today is day 11 for Louise Troh.

They tried to leave the apartment. She said they are, 'tired of being locked up". Dallas has placed an armed guard on the apartment.

I don't think that most realize that she continued to work as a senior caregiver during Duncans' illness, or that the entire bunch spent 4 hours in the Dallas Emergency room the first time.

I've been trying to count contacts, but it's impossible, She even went to a store during his illness. I can't figure out where Jallah and the daughter are, either. Surely, not running freely around Dallas?
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

I will come back and apologize if I'm wrong, but I think she is sick.
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Lynda said:
I will come back and apologize if I'm wrong, but I think she is sick.
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Do you have a link or first hand personal information about this?
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

It's not day 11 for her. If her earliest exposure is the 24th, this is day 9 or 10.

Keep in mind also that she has had multiple exposures. She will not be in the clear until three weeks from her last exposure, which given the towels and sheets, I would imagine is three weeks from today.
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

alert said:
It's not day 11 for her. If her earliest exposure is the 24th, this is day 9 or 10.

Keep in mind also that she has had multiple exposures. She will not be in the clear until three weeks from her last exposure, which given the towels and sheets, I would imagine is three weeks from today.
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He began to feel ill on the 22nd, was more ill and had a fever on the 23rd. She had "high serum" contact with him on the days leading up to the 23rd. The exact day is threading the needle a bit, but it is of interest due to virus shedding questions.
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

MHSC said:
No, not that I am aware of.
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Can you get an accurate temperature reading the palm from 1-2 feet away? That is not the way I take a temperature. Is this some kind of special airport temp taking machine calibrated for palms and 1-2 feet away?

Does anyone know?
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

sharon sanders said:
Do you have a link or first hand personal information about this?
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No, but here's why I think I'm correct:

The village where this particular bug started is going through pure hell. It seems very transmissible.

Duncan hadn't seen this girlfriend in a long time, and while someone in a regular relationship might feel unwell and forego intimacy, that was not the case here.

I don't think the medical community is completely clear on viral load needed for Ebola transmission, or even the degree of virus shed in the early stages of the disease...but this lady...bless her heart...got a giant load of virus.

Unless she has some immunity, her outcome is deeply concerning.

I'll be watching the news conference, where we'll hear, don't worry, be happy.
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Just because somebody brought it up, no I don't deny this is happening just astonished at the level of kabuki theater going on. It's not necessary and at this point is a distraction from the serious nature of the events so far.
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Lynda said:
No, but here's why I think I'm correct:

The village where this particular bug started is going through pure hell. It seems very transmissible.

Duncan hadn't seen this girlfriend in a long time, and while someone in a regular relationship might feel unwell and forego intimacy, that was not the case here.

I don't think the medical community is completely clear on viral load needed for Ebola transmission, or even the degree of virus shed in the early stages of the disease...but this lady...bless her heart...got a giant load of virus.

Unless she has some immunity, her outcome is deeply concerning.
Click to expand...

I agree that any partner of any ebola case is at high risk but I suggest we do not speculate on someone's ebola status. It is too serious. Thanks. :)
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

http://www.mprnews.org/story/2014/10/02/how-contagious-is-ebola

ebola.webp
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

That is a good chart to compare R0 values, but there is more to the story than just the R0. The R0 value can vary for a given pathogen based on human behavior, herd immunity, population density, etc. Thus, the R0 value alone doesn't give the whole picture regarding how much of a threat the pathogen poses. For example, measles has a very high R0 because it is very contagious and transmitted via true airborne routes. So, measles will move through a population much faster than ebola, but that doesn't mean it will have a higher attack rate or case fatality rate.

So, if we compare measles with ebola and we assume the population of 1 million people have no immunity and are in close proximity. CFR for measles in recent outbreaks were reported to range from 1% to 10%. However, the attack rate was very high and spread quickly due to the high R0. With a CFR of 18, it could go through the entire population in less than five reproductive cycles. For the sake of argument, let's assume a 90% attack rate. The result, even using the higher CFR, would be 90,000 deaths, but these would occur over a matter of weeks.

Ebola would be much slower. It would take 19 reproduction cycles to go through the entire population. Again, just picking an attack rate of 90% and using the CFR of 70%, a total of 660,000 people would die over a period of 14 months.

Which is worse? Obviously the ebola outbreak. The measles outbreak would result in many deaths over a short period early in the epidemic, but then it would be over. Ebola would kill two thirds of the population and prolong the trauma over a longer period, getting worse every cycle, having an increasingly devastating effect on society.

I know I probably sound like a science nerd, but these are the things I muse over when it's quiet.
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Can't sound nerdy here - all of us do eventually depending on the topic :D

Good points. The article also describes the relative simplicity of the graph, reasons why Ebola considered lower, and is a worthwhile read.
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

I'd be interested in knowing if any economic impact modeling has been performed. Ebola seems to envoke the highest level of fear in people. I would imagine that Dallas potentially faces severe disruption and financial loss if Ebola grows into to the hundreds of cases.

Likewise I would have to think that businesses near the current outbreak would have to be taking a hit. Then again I'm still waiting to see the "I live in Dallas and I survived ebola t-shirts" to appear
 
Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

Re: Discussion - 1st ebola case in US (excluding health care worker transfer) Dallas, Texas

hawkeye said:
I'd be interested in knowing if any economic impact modeling has been performed. Ebola seems to envoke the highest level of fear in people. I would imagine that Dallas potentially faces severe disruption and financial loss if Ebola grows into to the hundreds of cases.

Likewise I would have to think that businesses near the current outbreak would have to be taking a hit. Then again I'm still waiting to see the "I live in Dallas and I survived ebola t-shirts" to appear
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If the Dallas situation turns into the hundreds of cases - the financial impact on the whole country will be felt. And all bets would be off on how this virus really spreads. IMO
 
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