tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Disaster Med Public Health Prep
. 2022 Jun 21;1-18.
doi: 10.1017/dmp.2022.161. Online ahead of print.
Investigation on the control of COVID-19 in Wuhan: number of infections outside hospitals and the reproduction number
Yongxue Chen[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Hui Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jingyu Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Cheng Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ning Yi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yongxian Wen[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
COVID-19 is erupting globally and Wuhan successfully controlled it within a month. Infections arose from infectious persons outside hospitals. After data revision, data-based and model-based analyses are implemented and the conclusions are as follows. The incubation period of most infected people may be 6-7 days. The number of infectious persons outside hospitals in Wuhan on Jan.20 is about 10000 and reached more than 20000 on the day of Lockdown, it exceeded 72000 on Feb.4. Both data-based and model-based analyses gave out the evolution of the reproduction number, which is over 2.5 in early January, then go down to 1.62 in late January and 1.20 in early February, a sudden drop to less than 0.5 due to the strict Stay-at-home management after Feb.11. Strategies of Stay-at-home, Safe-protective measures and Ark hospitals are the main contributions to control COVID-19 in Wuhan. Two inflection points of COVID-19 in Wuhan exactly correspond to Feb.5 and Feb.15, the two days when Ark hospitals were introduced and the complete implementation of Stay-at-home. Based on the expression of the reproduction number, group immunity also is discussed. It shows that only when the group immunization rate is over 75 percent can COVID-19 be under control, group immunity actually would be full infection and the total deaths will be 220,000 for a city as big as Wuhan. Sensitivity analysis suggests that 30 percent of people staying at home in combination with better behavior changes, such as social-distancing and frequent hand-washing, can effectively contain COVID-19. But only when this proportion is over 60 percent can the control effect and efficiency like Wuhan be obtained.
Keywords: COVID-19; Data-based; Disease reproduction number; Model-based; New coronavirus; Stay-at-home.
. 2022 Jun 21;1-18.
doi: 10.1017/dmp.2022.161. Online ahead of print.
Investigation on the control of COVID-19 in Wuhan: number of infections outside hospitals and the reproduction number
Yongxue Chen[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Hui Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jingyu Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Cheng Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ning Yi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yongxian Wen[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35725275
- DOI: 10.1017/dmp.2022.161
Abstract
COVID-19 is erupting globally and Wuhan successfully controlled it within a month. Infections arose from infectious persons outside hospitals. After data revision, data-based and model-based analyses are implemented and the conclusions are as follows. The incubation period of most infected people may be 6-7 days. The number of infectious persons outside hospitals in Wuhan on Jan.20 is about 10000 and reached more than 20000 on the day of Lockdown, it exceeded 72000 on Feb.4. Both data-based and model-based analyses gave out the evolution of the reproduction number, which is over 2.5 in early January, then go down to 1.62 in late January and 1.20 in early February, a sudden drop to less than 0.5 due to the strict Stay-at-home management after Feb.11. Strategies of Stay-at-home, Safe-protective measures and Ark hospitals are the main contributions to control COVID-19 in Wuhan. Two inflection points of COVID-19 in Wuhan exactly correspond to Feb.5 and Feb.15, the two days when Ark hospitals were introduced and the complete implementation of Stay-at-home. Based on the expression of the reproduction number, group immunity also is discussed. It shows that only when the group immunization rate is over 75 percent can COVID-19 be under control, group immunity actually would be full infection and the total deaths will be 220,000 for a city as big as Wuhan. Sensitivity analysis suggests that 30 percent of people staying at home in combination with better behavior changes, such as social-distancing and frequent hand-washing, can effectively contain COVID-19. But only when this proportion is over 60 percent can the control effect and efficiency like Wuhan be obtained.
Keywords: COVID-19; Data-based; Disease reproduction number; Model-based; New coronavirus; Stay-at-home.