Mary Wilson
Well-known member
Publication History:
Received June 6, 2024; Revised December 6, 2024; Accepted December 9, 2024; Published December 27, 2024
DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2024.100971
Christopher Weyant,a,b,g Jaimie P. Meyer,c,d,g,∗ Daniel Bromberg,c Chris Beyrer,e Frederick L. Altice,c,f and Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fieberta,b
Summary
Background
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities had high rates of COVID-19 infections and mortality during the global pandemic. We sought to quantify how many COVID-19 infections could have been averted through different decarceration strategies.
Methods
We developed a set of stochastic simulation models of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in ICE facilities. Employing incremental mixture importance sampling (IMIS), we calibrated them to empirical targets derived from publicly available case time series for ICE facilities, and publicly available facility population censuses prior to vaccine availability (May 6, 2020 to December 31, 2020). The models included infection importation from extra-facility sources. We evaluated reduction of the incarcerated population by 10–90%. People who were decarcerated faced background cumulative risks of infection and detection based on a weighted average of county-level estimates from the covidestim model, which is a Bayesian evidence synthesis model.
Findings
Without decarceration, the infection rate was 5.05 per 1000 person-days (95% CrI 3.40–6.81) and case rate was 1.53 per 1000 person-days (95% CrI 1.04–2.02). Rates declined linearly when decarceration did not reduce contacts of people remaining in facilities and faster than linearly when it did reduce contacts. At all decarceration levels, rates were substantially higher when contacts were not reduced. Even with 90% decarceration, infection rates for people remaining in facilities were higher than or comparable to otherwise similar free-living people.
Interpretation
The decline in COVID-19 infection rates with decarceration was linear or faster than linear depending on how decarceration was implemented. Our findings highlight infection risks associated with incarceration, which compound other health harms of incarceration.
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2667-193X(24)00298-9
Received June 6, 2024; Revised December 6, 2024; Accepted December 9, 2024; Published December 27, 2024
DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2024.100971
Christopher Weyant,a,b,g Jaimie P. Meyer,c,d,g,∗ Daniel Bromberg,c Chris Beyrer,e Frederick L. Altice,c,f and Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fieberta,b
Summary
Background
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities had high rates of COVID-19 infections and mortality during the global pandemic. We sought to quantify how many COVID-19 infections could have been averted through different decarceration strategies.
Methods
We developed a set of stochastic simulation models of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in ICE facilities. Employing incremental mixture importance sampling (IMIS), we calibrated them to empirical targets derived from publicly available case time series for ICE facilities, and publicly available facility population censuses prior to vaccine availability (May 6, 2020 to December 31, 2020). The models included infection importation from extra-facility sources. We evaluated reduction of the incarcerated population by 10–90%. People who were decarcerated faced background cumulative risks of infection and detection based on a weighted average of county-level estimates from the covidestim model, which is a Bayesian evidence synthesis model.
Findings
Without decarceration, the infection rate was 5.05 per 1000 person-days (95% CrI 3.40–6.81) and case rate was 1.53 per 1000 person-days (95% CrI 1.04–2.02). Rates declined linearly when decarceration did not reduce contacts of people remaining in facilities and faster than linearly when it did reduce contacts. At all decarceration levels, rates were substantially higher when contacts were not reduced. Even with 90% decarceration, infection rates for people remaining in facilities were higher than or comparable to otherwise similar free-living people.
Interpretation
The decline in COVID-19 infection rates with decarceration was linear or faster than linear depending on how decarceration was implemented. Our findings highlight infection risks associated with incarceration, which compound other health harms of incarceration.
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2667-193X(24)00298-9