Here is an updated table of deaths per million population over the past week for selected nations. The number of deaths are not growing exponentially as some have feared, but that could simply be a function of the sample size. In a given nation, cases and deaths are increasing steeply in some areas, and stabilizing or decreasing in others, causing the pandemic to appear less severe than it really is. This could also be partly due to the success of social distancing in "flattening the curve"; however, although this will most definitely reduce the number of excess deaths due to an overstretched healthcare system, it might result in the same number of deaths directly caused by the virus, just seen over a longer period of time. An effective treatment or vaccine would be the only things that will mitigate the ultimate number of deaths caused by the virus directly.
What I suspect we will see in the larger nations is a prolonged sustained period where the number of daily deaths do not increase or decrease significantly due to the outbreak spreading from one city to another. I fear that without an effective treatment, this will go on for many months. So, there will be a "peak" in each nation, but that "peak" might be a long, flat one.
For those in the U.S. who believe the revised models that predict roughly 60k deaths by August, it is clear to me that this is overly optimistic considering that we have nearly half that many already that will most certainly exceed 30k by the end of the week. Note that the number of deaths in the U.S. doubled over the past week.
Even if the U.S. reaches the death rates already seen in Central Europe, our total deaths will exceed 100k before June.
. [TABLE="width: 657"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl84, bgcolor: #BDD7EE"]Location[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84, bgcolor: #BDD7EE"]Population[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #BDD7EE"]Deaths[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #BDD7EE"]Rate[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, bgcolor: #BDD7EE"]Deaths[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #BDD7EE"]Rate[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, bgcolor: #BDD7EE"]Deaths[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #BDD7EE"]Rate[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, bgcolor: #BDD7EE"]Deaths[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #BDD7EE"]Rate[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: #BDD7EE"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: #BDD7EE"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl86, bgcolor: #BDD7EE, colspan: 2"]04/07/20[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86, bgcolor: #BDD7EE, colspan: 2"]04/09/20[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86, bgcolor: #BDD7EE, colspan: 2"]04/12/20[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86, bgcolor: #BDD7EE, colspan: 2"]04/14/20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]San Marino[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]33,931[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]34[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]1,002[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]34[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]1,002[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]35[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]1,032[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]35[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]1,032[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Andorra[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]77,265[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]21[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]272[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]25[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]324[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]26[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]337[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]31[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]401[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Spain[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]46,754,778[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]13,897[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]297[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]15,238[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]326[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]16,606[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]355[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]18,150[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]388[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Belgium[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]11,589,623[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]2,035[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]176[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]2,523[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]218[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]3,346[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]289[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]4,157[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]359[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Italy[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]60,461,826[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]17,127[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]283[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]18,279[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]302[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]19,468[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]322[/TD]
[TD="class: xl101"]21,067[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]348[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]France[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]65,273,511[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]10,328[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]158[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]10,869[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]167[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]13,852[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]212[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]15,729[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]241[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]UK[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]67,886,011[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]6,159[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]91[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]8,793[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]130[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]9,892[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]146[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]12,107[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]178[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Netherlands[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]17,134,872[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]2,101[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]123[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]2,396[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]140[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]2,653[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]155[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]2,945[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]172[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Switzerland[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]8,654,622[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]815[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]94[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]937[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]108[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]1,036[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]120[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]1,175[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]136[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Luxembourg[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]625,978[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]44[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]70[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]52[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]83[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]54[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]86[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]69[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Sweden[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]10,099,265[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]591[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]59[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]793[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]79[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]887[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]88[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]1,033[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]102[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]United States[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]331,002,651[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]12,709[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]38[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]16,411[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]20,647[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]62[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]25,634[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]77[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Ireland[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]4,937,786[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]210[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]43[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]263[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]53[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]320[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]65[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]365[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]74[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Iran[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]83,992,949[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]3,872[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]46[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]4,110[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]49[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]4,357[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]52[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]4,683[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]56[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Portugal[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"]10,196,709[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]345[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]34[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]409[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]40[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]470[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]46[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]567[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]56[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Denmark[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"]5,792,202[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]187[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]32[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]237[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]41[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]260[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]45[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]299[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]52[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Austria[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"]9,006,398[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]243[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]27[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]295[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]33[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]337[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]37[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]384[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]43[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Germany[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: white"]83,783,942[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]1,818[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]22[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]2,349[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]28[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]2,871[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]34[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]3,444[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]41[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Slovenia[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]2,078,938[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]30[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]43[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]21[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]24[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]56[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Norway[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]5,421,241[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]77[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]104[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]19[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]119[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]22[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]139[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Canada[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]37,742,154[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87, bgcolor: #D0CECE, colspan: 2"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]461[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]653[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]17[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]898[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Panama[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]4,314,767[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]55[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]63[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]15[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]79[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]18[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]94[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Ecuador[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]17,643,054[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, bgcolor: white"]191[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl103, bgcolor: #BFBFBF, colspan: 2"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, bgcolor: white"]315[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]18[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, bgcolor: white"]369[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]Turkey[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]84,339,067[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87, bgcolor: #D0CECE, colspan: 2"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]908[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]1,101[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]1,403[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl75"]South Korea[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]51,269,185[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]192[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]3.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]204[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]4.0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]214[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]4.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl102, bgcolor: white"]217[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]4.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]