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Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

Commonground

Senior Moderator
hat-tip UK - Bird

Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO
By Tamara McLean

The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu is mutating unpredictably and at a rapid pace, a senior WHO official has warned Asia Pacific health ministers.

APEC health ministers have wrapped their two-day Sydney meeting with a pledge to address the "very real" threat of a global pandemic of bird flu or human influenza.

The commitment came after a World Health Organisation (WHO) presentation urging vigilance in the face of unpredictable changes in the H5N1 virus, which poses the biggest current threat.

Dr Shigeru Omi, WHO Regional Director for the Western Pacific, told ministers and senior delegates from the 21 nations the virus was rapidly evolving.

"The virus is already entrenched, embedded in this part of the world and ... it has been very, very unstable and changeable," Dr Omi said after the meeting.

"If we put (these two points) together it's a very clear indication that we have to remain vigilant."

The Indonesian strain has infected 309 people since 2003, killing 188, but Dr Omi warned that what was once two distinct grades had now spilt into four sub-groups.

"And I would not be surprised if we end up with more sub-classes in the years to come," he said.

Current mutations have not necessarily increased the likelihood of human-to-human transmission, but it proved the virus was "risky".

"The longer the virus lasts, the more chance such a mutation will occur," Dr Omi said. "It's simple mathematics."

Federal Health Minister Tony Abbott said given its unpredictability, it was vital H5N1 was closely monitored as it evolved.

"That means it's very important to have rapid virus sharing because the threat of pandemic remains very real," Mr Abbott said.

The Sydney Declaration signed on Friday specifically commits countries to sharing samples of the deadly H5N1 virus as it mutates so scientists are able to match the latest strain with vaccines in production.

Indonesia interrupted the practice earlier this year to protest that poorer nations with the samples may miss out on expensive vaccines developed in wealthier nations like Australia.

Mr Abbott said he was pleased with the new pledge, saying any more significant interruptions to virus sharing would have "tragic" consequences.

Specialists have predicted that an influenza would kill 48,000 Australians and hospitalise a further 150,000, with seven million seeking medical attention.

Meanwhile, United Nations senior influenza coordinator David Nabarro warned the region must act against "flu fatigue" as people become complacent about the threat.

Pandemics should be treated with the same seriousness as the threat of terrorism, global warming and tsunami, Dr Nabarro said.

"You don't hear about hijack fatigue do you?" he said.

"Influenza is a potential cause of masses of suffering but there are individuals saying a pandemic hasn't happened so we can't be bother planning to avoid it."

"We can't get caught napping on this or we make big mistakes."

Brought to you by AAP
http://wimmera.yourguide.com.au/det...eneral&story_id=594611&category=General&m=&y=
 
Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

Does this mean that the Indonesian claims of rapid change are true?
 
Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

Does this mean that the Indonesian claims of rapid change are true?
H5N1 continues to change. There are now four cades/sub-clades (Clade 1 - southeast Asia, Clade 2.1 - Indonesia, Clade 2.2 Qinghai - everything west of China, Clade 2.3 Fujian - China moving into southeast Asia).

Recent data from Egypt and Ghana shows Clade 2.2 sub clades infecting humans.

This isn't Kansas.
 
Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

H5N1 continues to change. There are now four cades/sub-clades (Clade 1 - southeast Asia, Clade 2.1 - Indonesia, Clade 2.2 Qinghai - everything west of China, Clade 2.3 Fujian - China moving into southeast Asia).

Recent data from Egypt and Ghana shows Clade 2.2 sub clades infecting humans.

This isn't Kansas.

You are so silent about the sequences.
Are you no longer calling for release of sequences this year ?
I remember the actions last year with a partial success in that
Indonesia released sequences until January, when they stopped.
No sequences from Japan,Korea, large delays in Germany,China,
and other countries, only HA and NA from Egypt,Europe, etc.
Isn't it time to renew that action ? Make another petition ?
 
Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

You are so silent about the sequences.
Are you no longer calling for release of sequences this year ?
I remember the actions last year with a partial success in that
Indonesia released sequences until January, when they stopped.
No sequences from Japan,Korea, large delays in Germany,China,
and other countries, only HA and NA from Egypt,Europe, etc.
Isn't it time to renew that action ? Make another petition ?
There was much more public interest a year ago, and those holding sequences held their ground.

The public is pretty much a lost cause, so the sequences will be released when the sequencers feel like releasing them.
 
Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

but it somehow did work last year, Indonesia and China did release
sequences. Shouldn't it be repeated ?
 
Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

but it somehow did work last year, Indonesia and China did release
sequences. Shouldn't it be repeated ?
There is pressure on Indonesia from WHO. China has lots of unreleased sequences. The released sequences were largely from earlier outbreaks,

Weybridge still has 2005 sequences from Europe. Canada still has 2005 wild bird sequences. Hong Kong still releases partials. Most countries that only released HA and NA aren't interested in the other 6 genes and haven't generated sequences.

The Options VI meeting was quite revealing. H5N1 is much more politics than science, and the public is really a non-issue.
 
Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

what's with OFFLU,GISAID ?
are they still calling/pushing to release sequences or are they no longer interested ?
is GISAID good ? will they make sequences public immediately or only after 6 months ?
 
Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

what's with OFFLU,GISAID ?
are they still calling/pushing to release sequences or are they no longer interested ?
is GISAID good ? will they make sequences public immediately or only after 6 months ?
It is just another way to control the data. Ilaria Capua said she was happy she formed it, but said nothing about availability of sequences. It is all politics. She said H5N1 in wild birds was gone in Europe and Africa and used slides from Martin Williams! It was quite remarkable.
 
Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

meaning it doesn't exist? Wow. That is remarkable.
Yes, she used the negative data by conservation groups, which looked at live wild birds (western Europe has never reported H5N1 in live wild birds and only Egypt had a positive in Aftica), and used that negative data as evidence. The conference was a big political circus (Helen Branswell kicked it off by saying the DEAD geese on Prince Edward Island died from LOW PATH H5N1). It was truely amazing.
 
Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

Yes, she used the negative data by conservation groups, which looked at live wild birds (western Europe has never reported H5N1 in live wild birds and only Egypt had a positive in Aftica), and used that negative data as evidence. The conference was a big political circus (Helen Branswell kicked it off by saying the DEAD geese on Prince Edward Island died from LOW PATH H5N1). It was truely amazing.

She did? What proof was offered or was everyone just expected to believe
this without any? This is very disappointing.

I can't believe Ilaria Capua used material from Martin Williams. Well, actually I do, but I don't want to.
 
Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

She did? What proof was offered or was everyone just expected to believe
this without any? This is very disappointing.

I can't believe Ilaria Capua used material from Martin Williams. Well, actually I do, but I don't want to.
For the Capua presntations, the slides had drmartinwilliams.com in the background.

Helen Branswell offered NO data. She waved her hands, made the statement, and took no questions. She also noted that she, like most science writers for the public press, had no science background (over 80%).

None of this is really new, but the presentation was a very good example of the popular press, up front and personal.
 
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Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

For the Capua presntations, the slides had drmartinwilliams.com in the background.

Helen Branswell offered NO data. She waved her hands, made the statement, and took no questions. She also noted that she, like most science writers for the public press, had no science background (over 80%).

None of this is really new, but the presentation was a very good example of the popular press, up front and personal.

I am appalled at the apparent prevarication at what seems to be billed as a scientific conference (OK, maybe I am naive). Will there be proceedings or is there other documentation available for those of us who were not able to attend?
 
Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

I am appalled at the apparent prevarication at what seems to be billed as a scientific conference (OK, maybe I am naive). Will there be proceedings or is there other documentation available for those of us who were not able to attend?
The deadline for submission of manuscripts for the proceedings is July 13 (but I can only submit one, although I submitted four abstracts).

The meeting was really a PR exercise. There was VERY little science.

There were more than 500 abstracts, but I am not sure if they are publicly available. The 5 that I was on are here

http://www.recombinomics.com/presentations.html
 
Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

There were more than 500 abstracts, but I am not sure if they are publicly available. The 5 that I was on are here

Thank you for the link (and for your productivity and leadership in the field). I see that they gave you some decent presentation times and included you on a panel. There must have been some organizers interested in science.

How was your work received in general? Did it stimulate some good discussion? Was it worth your time to attend overall?
 
Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

Thank you for the link (and for your productivity and leadership in the field). I see that they gave you some decent presentation times and included you on a panel. There must have been some organizers interested in science.

How was your work received in general? Did it stimulate some good discussion? Was it worth your time to attend overall?

No, they gave me 5 posters. The panel discussion and invited presentations were for other meetings.
 
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Re: Deadly flu virus mutating rapidly: WHO

Thank you for the link (and for your productivity and leadership in the field). I see that they gave you some decent presentation times and included you on a panel. There must have been some organizers interested in science.

How was your work received in general? Did it stimulate some good discussion? Was it worth your time to attend overall?
It was worth seeing how bad things really are.
 
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