tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Transl Med. 2017 Jul 28;15(1):163. doi: 10.1186/s12967-017-1269-6.
[h=1]Data-driven interdisciplinary mathematical modelling quantitatively unveils competition dynamics of co-circulating influenza strains.[/h] Ho BS[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2,[/SUP][SUP]3[/SUP], Chao KM[SUP]4,[/SUP][SUP]5[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] Co-circulation of influenza strains is common to seasonal epidemics and pandemic emergence. Competition was considered involved in the vicissitudes of co-circulating influenza strains but never quantitatively studied at the human population level. The main purpose of the study was to explore the competition dynamics of co-circulating influenza strains in a quantitative way.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] We constructed a heterogeneous dynamic transmission model and ran the model to fit the weekly A/H1N1 influenza virus isolation rate through an influenza season. The construction process started on the 2007-2008 single-clade influenza season and, with the contribution from the clade-based A/H1N1 epidemiological curves, advanced to the 2008-2009 two-clade influenza season. Pearson method was used to estimate the correlation coefficient between the simulated epidemic curve and the observed weekly A/H1N1 influenza virus isolation rate curve.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] The model found the potentially best-fit simulation with correlation coefficient up to 96% and all the successful simulations converging to the best-fit. The annual effective reproductive number of each co-circulating influenza strain was estimated. We found that, during the 2008-2009 influenza season, the annual effective reproductive number of the succeeding A/H1N1 clade 2B-2, carrying H275Y mutation in the neuraminidase, was estimated around 1.65. As to the preceding A/H1N1 clade 2C-2, the annual effective reproductive number would originally be equivalent to 1.65 but finally took on around 0.75 after the emergence of clade 2B-2. The model reported that clade 2B-2 outcompeted for the 2008-2009 influenza season mainly because clade 2C-2 suffered from a reduction of transmission fitness of around 71% on encountering the former.
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] We conclude that interdisciplinary data-driven mathematical modelling could bring to light the transmission dynamics of the A/H1N1 H275Y strains during the 2007-2009 influenza seasons worldwide and may inspire us to tackle the continually emerging drug-resistant A/H1N1pdm09 strains. Furthermore, we provide a prospective approach through mathematical modelling to solving a seemingly unintelligible problem at the human population level and look forward to its application at molecular level through bridging the resolution capacities of related disciplines.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Influenza; Quantitative modelling; Strain competition; Transmission
PMID: 28754164 DOI: 10.1186/s12967-017-1269-6
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[h=1]Data-driven interdisciplinary mathematical modelling quantitatively unveils competition dynamics of co-circulating influenza strains.[/h] Ho BS[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2,[/SUP][SUP]3[/SUP], Chao KM[SUP]4,[/SUP][SUP]5[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] Co-circulation of influenza strains is common to seasonal epidemics and pandemic emergence. Competition was considered involved in the vicissitudes of co-circulating influenza strains but never quantitatively studied at the human population level. The main purpose of the study was to explore the competition dynamics of co-circulating influenza strains in a quantitative way.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] We constructed a heterogeneous dynamic transmission model and ran the model to fit the weekly A/H1N1 influenza virus isolation rate through an influenza season. The construction process started on the 2007-2008 single-clade influenza season and, with the contribution from the clade-based A/H1N1 epidemiological curves, advanced to the 2008-2009 two-clade influenza season. Pearson method was used to estimate the correlation coefficient between the simulated epidemic curve and the observed weekly A/H1N1 influenza virus isolation rate curve.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] The model found the potentially best-fit simulation with correlation coefficient up to 96% and all the successful simulations converging to the best-fit. The annual effective reproductive number of each co-circulating influenza strain was estimated. We found that, during the 2008-2009 influenza season, the annual effective reproductive number of the succeeding A/H1N1 clade 2B-2, carrying H275Y mutation in the neuraminidase, was estimated around 1.65. As to the preceding A/H1N1 clade 2C-2, the annual effective reproductive number would originally be equivalent to 1.65 but finally took on around 0.75 after the emergence of clade 2B-2. The model reported that clade 2B-2 outcompeted for the 2008-2009 influenza season mainly because clade 2C-2 suffered from a reduction of transmission fitness of around 71% on encountering the former.
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] We conclude that interdisciplinary data-driven mathematical modelling could bring to light the transmission dynamics of the A/H1N1 H275Y strains during the 2007-2009 influenza seasons worldwide and may inspire us to tackle the continually emerging drug-resistant A/H1N1pdm09 strains. Furthermore, we provide a prospective approach through mathematical modelling to solving a seemingly unintelligible problem at the human population level and look forward to its application at molecular level through bridging the resolution capacities of related disciplines.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Influenza; Quantitative modelling; Strain competition; Transmission
PMID: 28754164 DOI: 10.1186/s12967-017-1269-6
Free full text