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Czech Republic: Chikungunya

D

DB

Valued Member
http://www.chikungunya.net/Discussions/forum.htm

http://www.chikungunya.net/_discusschikun/00000b64.htm
Hi to everybody

<!--webbot BOT="FormInsertHere" -->Expediteur: Tereza
Ville: Prague
Mail: tabarka@centrum.cz
Rubrique: Discussion sur l'?pid?mie
Date: 28-02-2006
Time: 15:19:03

Commentaires

Hello, I am from Czech republic and I have a question. I speak english only and I want to get some information about the virus. My friend come back to Czech republic from Mauritius and she feels sick. She has all the symptoms what I read about this sick in newspapers. She is in the hospital now. So I think, we have the first case of this virus in Czech republic...Can anybody give me advice, where to get more information? Thank you very much. Tereza
 
Re: Czech Republic: Chikungunya

According to the World Health Organization, a pandemic can start when three conditions have been met:
  • the emergence of a disease new to the population
  • the agent infects humans, causing serious illness
  • the agent spreads easily and sustainably among humans.
While Chikungunya is not a new disease the virus currently circulating is not acting like Chikungunya. Only very rarely is Chikungunya fatal, the current virus is fatal which means something has changed. If it is mutated Chikungunya or some other disease it clearly satisfies the first requirement for being a pandemic.

The virus being called Chikungunya infects humans and causes serious illness. Therefore is satisfies the second requirement for being a pandemic.

The virus being called Chikungunya has infected 160,000 people in La Reunion in 6 weeks. The virus being called Chikungunya has now been seen in La Reunion and surrounding islands, France, India, Switzerland and now Czech Republic. Therefore is satisfies the third requirement for being a pandemic.

Since the virus being called Chikungunya satisifies all the requirements for being a pandemic we can now call it Pandemic Chikungunya.
 
Re: Czech Republic: Chikungunya

DB said:
Since the virus being called Chikungunya satisifies all the requirements for being a pandemic we can now call it Pandemic Chikungunya.
Click to expand...

Only if it starts spreading in these new territories - not if it is in isolated cases that have all been in the endemic area I would say.
 
Re: Czech Republic: Chikungunya

I shall contact the poster via her webmail address and hope she replies. I would really like some more details.
 
Re: Czech Republic: Chikungunya

DB: Do you have any more data on any of the mainland country incidences? Is there any hard evidence that spread has started eg in France or Switzerland from the index cases?
 
Re: Czech Republic: Chikungunya

Vibrant62 said:
DB: Do you have any more data on any of the mainland country incidences? Is there any hard evidence that spread has started eg in France or Switzerland from the index cases?
Click to expand...

There is a tight control on information right now so very little information is coming out.

The information that is found in other places does not look good. The latest news is that the virus is spreading in regions with very little mosquito activity. (Big Suprise!!)

Here is an example of what we can expect, these numbers come from the surrounding island of Mayoette.

January 29th: 56 cases
Febuary 25th: 1350 cases

Right now France has 30 cases, wait 2-3 more weeks and the numbers will be above 1000.
 
Re: Czech Republic: Chikungunya

Entr?e aux Etats Unis

Expediteur: G. Choux
Ville: Saint-Gilles
Mail: gchoux@hotmail.com
Rubrique: Autre
Date: 28-02-2006
Time: 17:02:52

Commentaires

Une rumeur court selon laquelle l'entr?e aux USA serait interdite aux personnes en provenance de la R?union. Quelqu'un a-t-il des ?l?ments ? apporter sur cette question?

Machine Translation:
A rumour runs according to which the entry in the USA would be prohibited to the people coming from the Meeting. Does somebody have elements to bring on this question?
 
Re: Czech Republic: Chikungunya

Can anyone verify the rumor that people coming from La Reunion cannot enter the United States?
 
Re: Czech Republic: Chikungunya

This "spreading where there are no mosquitos" report has no substantiation that I have seen. Could one or two of you post links to the info?

I know that it is in France, but the patients there were in the tropics just before they caught it. Has anybody in France caught it and not been to Reunion or nearby islands? I guess the question some of us have deep in the recesses of our suspicious minds is, "Are the French reports accurate?"
 
Re: Czech Republic: Chikungunya

As long as people go to the lower elevations to shop or work, they can get bitten by those horrible insects. I hear of death reports. What is the "new found" mortality from what was a benign illness previously?

In my novel, the survivors settle in the Mira Mesa area of San Diego because of the lack of mosquitos. (I have never been bitten outside of my home.) The whole world may come here soon. (I am not going to feed them. Tell them to bring their own sandwiches for the picnic.)
 
Re: Czech Republic: Chikungunya

Joe Neubarth said:
As long as people go to the lower elevations to shop or work, they can get bitten by those horrible insects. I hear of death reports. What is the "new found" mortality from what was a benign illness previously?

In my novel, the survivors settle in the Mira Mesa area of San Diego because of the lack of mosquitos. (I have never been bitten outside of my home.) The whole world may come here soon. (I am not going to feed them. Tell them to bring their own sandwiches for the picnic.)
Click to expand...

That would result in sporadic cases, not the widespread outbreak that is occuring.

If you want to try to draw a parallel to the events on La Reunion then here is one.

La Reunion is a French Tourist Island. They have always had very good mosquito control.

Take the city of Miami and have 25% of the population get infected with West Nile in 6 weeks.

It never has happened and it never will happen becuase mosquito born diseases don't spread in that manner.

Oh, and by the way, the birds are dropping dead as well. They say it is due to the spray they are using for the mosquitoes. This is a ridiculous excuse for bird deaths. Almost as ridiculous as the Ukrainian, "The birds are dropping out of the sky and dying because they are exhausted" excuse. And 40% if the island has stopped working.
 
Re: Czech Republic: Chikungunya

I agree with DB on this, in that I dont think the spread can be attributed to the aedes mosquito alone: the pattern of spread is just too great, and there have not been epidemic levels of mossies reported. Additionally, spraying and other anti mosquito activities should have had a marked effect on incidence - and it does not appear that this is the case. As far as I can tell, there is no let up in new cases, but the epidemic may be peaking, based on the rate of reported incidence of new cases - at least on La Reunion. DB - any latest data to back this up one way or the other? Big thanks.

H2H is a definite possibility, but, I am wondering rather more on the viruses adaptation to a new vector - either a relation i.e gnat or other type of mosquito, or some other species or common element within the food chain. The virus would have to have increased its infectivity either way, and if so, we should start to hear of mainland cases fairly soon. I hope we are wrong on this being an H5N1 variant, but until WHO or other authorites can honestly say that they have looked for this carefully and found no evidence, I am not going to discount the theory. I have not heard any report say 'we have checked and not found H5N1' - has anyone else?
 
Re: Czech Republic: Chikungunya

My point is this, while family clusters of mosquito born diseases do occur, they are rare.

There are reports from La Reunion of every member of a family becoming ill, these families are not the average american family of 4 but families of 10 people and higher.

Right now the events in La Reunion match only one model that I know of. The model of a Pandemic virus. If anyone has another model that would explain the events of La Reunion and the surrounding areas then by all means bring it forward NOW. I would love to be wrong. However, until another model is presented I cannot believe this to be anything other than a Pandemic virus.
 
Re: Czech Republic: Chikungunya

I have lived in Florida for 20+ years and have had many mosquito exposures. I have never experienced a single mosquito biting every individual in the house. I believe they are full after one or two bites. Also, many mosquitos are killed when the individual swipes at them. The chances of a single mosquito biting, and thus infecting, every member of a household within a specific time frame is remote.
 
Re: Czech Republic: Chikungunya

Snowy Owl said:
Thereare indeed some people that got infectes while they swear they havenot been bitten by moskitoes.

An informal survey is being done in the Island about this.

But, but even doctors have pubicly said that they cannot do the tests they want, and are kind of censure.
Click to expand...

Snowy,

Let the doctors know that if they would like an open forum to publish their findings or concerns they are welcome to use FluTrackers to do so.
 
Re: Czech Republic: Chikungunya

Florida1 said:
I have lived in Florida for 20+ years and have had many mosquito exposures. I have never experienced a single mosquito biting every individual in the house. I believe they are full after one or two bites. Also, many mosquitos are killed when the individual swipes at them. The chances of a single mosquito biting, and thus infecting, every member of a household within a specific time frame is remote.
Click to expand...


Good point. If a mosie lives long enough, the chances of it biting every individual in a large family are pretty small. Do we know if there is a time interval between individuals contracting the disease within a family or cluster? This would indicate a higher probablity of H2H. The doctors on the ground would know the answer to onset dates in clusters, even if they have not been allowed to conduct tests. Snowy - could you ask your contacts?
 
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