curious

[ops144]

going back to 1918 to today. medical tech has changed dramatically,with that what do you all think if this really goes south that the impact might "not" be as bad due to that tech advantage?

times are really diff now possible vac in 2 to 3 months....

way better medical treatment"in the US"where i live.

with the vac issue in 1918 there was no vaccination right?

well if we can make one now 2nd and 3rd wave would actually have less of an impact right?

just some thoughts i could be really off base also but who knows.

also if this is the wrong forum i apologise

 

[mixin]

Re: curious

with the vac issue in 1918 there was no vaccination right?

Most of the 1918 studies here are really interesting if you like that type of thing. You are correct that there was no influenza vax; but they did a lot of experimenting with bacteria. This was because they were still thinking influenza was caused by bacteria.

In some of the studies I read, the doctors noted that the vaccine did nothing to prevent the flu (which now makes sense) but they also noted they didn't experience the death rate that others did (which also makes sense since they were vaxing for pneumonia).

I'm optimistic that it wouldn't be as bad due to the reasons you gave. A warning, though... I'm no expert.

 

[Rescuer]

Re: curious

Quick question

Why are we not seening the numbers jump I would expect the numbers to multiply by now?

Rescuer

 

[The Mountains Voice]

Re: curious

OPPS144 wrote:
do you all think if this really goes south that the impact might "not" be as bad due to that tech advantage?

Personally I see the main tech advantages as being our (U.S.) healthcare system. A lot of other developed nations have good ones too. The preparation work done to date - primarily the distribtuon of Tamiflu - will do a lot of good for a lot of people - assuming it remains effective. But you're talking "if it goes south".

So let's assume it really takes a nasty turn for the worse, the virus itself I mean. As far as the vaccine comments, even if we could throw something together in 2 - 3 months, it will still be limited production, and it will still go mainly to critical personel & infrastructure, and probably the rich to a degree. 3rd world countries are probably screwed. So are most normal people. But yes, all of this will mitigate the situation as opposed to what was available in 1918.

However, on the other side of the coin, in 1918 the virus was basically spread via horse, buggy and boat. So there was a long delay in the spread. In the 2 - 3 days since serious reporting began we've basically seen it spread to the U.S., Canada, Israel, France, Spain, New Zealand, and since I haven't checked the reports in a couple of hours, I'll assume at least 1 or 2 more countries (yes, that's sort of a sincere sarcasm) . Suddenly the 2 - 3 months to get a vaccine seems like an eternity. Ballgame could be over before then.

That's also something I've been thinking about lately - the discussed premise that this will travel in several waves over a year+. I'm beginning to question that. World has had pandemics, but never one in the global age. It will follow no historical spread pattern - but will be global and instantaneous EVERYWHERE all at once. Sure, their will be pockets and variables - but I've just started thinking today about the potential scenario that vaccine might be almost a moot point. Probably not - but I do think that in the age of planes, trains and automobiles - we really aren't sure what to expect.

So on the one hand technology giveth, and with the other it taketh away.

 

[tropical]

Re: curious

Quick question

Why are we not seening the numbers jump I would expect the numbers to multiply by now?

Rescuer

It must not neccessary be an full exponential progression, but I don't think the numbers are not multiplying right now.

If you look the schedule from the first wide reported cases only in Mexico in the news, you have after only several days now cases everywhere worldwide (thanks also to theirs miopy insisting on non restricting flights from the plagued country in the early begining).

And we don't see now all the subsequent cases in incubation.

The best orientation is the USA activation of the state of health emergency.

Seems that the WHO like to wait to the last possible minute (few days more - few milions spreaders more) ...

 

[gsgs]

Re: curious

there was a study in Dec.2006, I think (Murray et.al, Harvard)
estimating the today's impact of a 1918-like pandemic as ~one third
of that in 1918. (AFAIR)
But the population has grown since 1918, so with the same CFR
the total number of deaths would also be higher.

The real thing (previous wave) didn't protect a lot and vaccine
can hardly be more protective than real infection, so we shouldn't
expect too much from the vaccine.
I estimate it may half the infections and deaths or such.
And in connection with other measured may stop the spread
in some regions but this is uncertain.

 

[LMonty]

Re: curious

not only is healthcare better- but health status in somewhat better too. although we do have large numbers of chronically ill that would have died without a pandemic if they lived in 1918, we also have a well nourished population, with much better hygiene.

what hasnt been mentioned is that we have a huge advantage in COMMUNICATION.

we communicate to people how to care for flu vicitims, via TV, radio, the internet and other venues. we can set up medical call centers for specific questions. we have reliable OTC meds to help with symptoms and can teach people how to use them properly to deal with symptoms. that's just a few of the benefits that contemporary communication will have if this turns into a serious pandemic, i'm sure our readers can think of many more.