tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Cureus
. 2021 Dec 8;13(12):e20279.
doi: 10.7759/cureus.20279. eCollection 2021 Dec.
A Hybrid Approach Toward COVID-19 Pandemic Modeling in Saudi Arabia Using the Modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered Model and Open Data Sources
Naim Ahmad[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ayman Qahmash[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused the world to operate uncharacteristically for almost the last two years. Governments across the globe have taken different control measures to eradicate it. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) provides open access data for different countries on 20 control measures, including numerous aggregated indices. This paper employs the modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiology model to study the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia. The modification has been achieved by including control measures and the infectiousness of exposed compartment. A hybrid approach has been used to estimate and incorporate control measures. Initially, a composite control measure has been derived from OxCGRT data to make an attempt to fit the COVID-19 pattern in Saudi Arabia. The derived model has proven to be satisfactory through statistical tests. Nonetheless, the model patterns do not resemble the reported patterns more closely. Hence, a second heuristic approach has been utilized to devise effective control measures from the reported pattern of COVID-19 from the Saudi government agency. A satisfactory model was derived utilizing this approach with successful validation through statistical tests. Also, the model patterns more closely resemble the reported patterns of COVID-19 cases. This hybrid approach proves more robust and ensures the validity of model parameters better. The R naught (R[SUB]0[/SUB]) value with the current control measures has varied from 0.515 to 1.892, with a mean value of 1.119, and is presently less than 1. The threshold herd immunity, in the absence of any control measure, is estimated to be 47.12% with an R[SUB]0[/SUB] value of 1.89 and would end up infecting 76.32% of the population. The scenario analysis with gradual partial and complete relaxations up to December 31, 2021, shows that the peaks are likely to occur in 2022; therefore, Saudi Arabia must continue to inoculate its population to eradicate COVID-19.
Keywords: basic reproduction number; compartment epidemiology model; control measures; coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19); infectiousness of exposed and infectious compartments; oxford covid-19 government response tracker (oxcgrt); saudi arabia; susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (seir) model; threshold herd immunity.
. 2021 Dec 8;13(12):e20279.
doi: 10.7759/cureus.20279. eCollection 2021 Dec.
A Hybrid Approach Toward COVID-19 Pandemic Modeling in Saudi Arabia Using the Modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered Model and Open Data Sources
Naim Ahmad[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ayman Qahmash[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35028196
- PMCID: PMC8748003
- DOI: 10.7759/cureus.20279
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused the world to operate uncharacteristically for almost the last two years. Governments across the globe have taken different control measures to eradicate it. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) provides open access data for different countries on 20 control measures, including numerous aggregated indices. This paper employs the modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiology model to study the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia. The modification has been achieved by including control measures and the infectiousness of exposed compartment. A hybrid approach has been used to estimate and incorporate control measures. Initially, a composite control measure has been derived from OxCGRT data to make an attempt to fit the COVID-19 pattern in Saudi Arabia. The derived model has proven to be satisfactory through statistical tests. Nonetheless, the model patterns do not resemble the reported patterns more closely. Hence, a second heuristic approach has been utilized to devise effective control measures from the reported pattern of COVID-19 from the Saudi government agency. A satisfactory model was derived utilizing this approach with successful validation through statistical tests. Also, the model patterns more closely resemble the reported patterns of COVID-19 cases. This hybrid approach proves more robust and ensures the validity of model parameters better. The R naught (R[SUB]0[/SUB]) value with the current control measures has varied from 0.515 to 1.892, with a mean value of 1.119, and is presently less than 1. The threshold herd immunity, in the absence of any control measure, is estimated to be 47.12% with an R[SUB]0[/SUB] value of 1.89 and would end up infecting 76.32% of the population. The scenario analysis with gradual partial and complete relaxations up to December 31, 2021, shows that the peaks are likely to occur in 2022; therefore, Saudi Arabia must continue to inoculate its population to eradicate COVID-19.
Keywords: basic reproduction number; compartment epidemiology model; control measures; coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19); infectiousness of exposed and infectious compartments; oxford covid-19 government response tracker (oxcgrt); saudi arabia; susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (seir) model; threshold herd immunity.