Maharaj, S., Kleczkowski, A. Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: Do it well or not at all.
BMC Public Health 12, 679 (2012).
https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-12-679
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Conclusions
Within the assumptions of our model, we have seen that social distancing is most cost-effective as an epidemic control strategy if it is applied with a high degree of caution (i.e., a low risk attitude), and that the more infectious the disease, the greater the caution that is required. If a disease is very highly infectious, social distancing may have no effect, or may require an unfeasibly high degree of caution in order to be effective. In these cases, doing nothing will be a more cost-effective strategy than using social distancing, because the worst-case outcome arises if the control is applied, but the level of caution used is too weak. The steep threshold separating the best-case outcome from the worst-case in Figure
6b indicates that it is very important that the level of infectiousness of the disease is not underestimated. The similar, steep threshold in Figure
9 highlights the danger of having an overly relaxed attitude to risk when using the control. Hence the slogan in the title of this paper: if social distancing is being considered, do it well, or not at all.
