tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Infect Dis. 2016 Dec 28. pii: jiw642. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiw642. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]Contact, travel, and transmission: The impact of winter holidays on influenza dynamics in the United States.[/h] Ewing A[SUP]1[/SUP], Lee EC[SUP]1[/SUP], Viboud C[SUP]2[/SUP], Bansal S[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] The seasonality of influenza is thought to vary according to environmental factors and human behavior. During winter holidays, potential disease-causing contact and travel deviate from typical patterns, and we aim to understand these changes on age-specific and spatial flu transmission.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] We characterized the changes to transmission and epidemic trajectories among children and adults in a spatial context before, during, and after the winter holidays among aggregated physician medical claims in the United States from 2001 to 2009 and among synthetic data simulated from a deterministic, age-specific spatial metapopulation model.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] Winter holidays reduced flu transmission and delayed the trajectory of flu season epidemics. The holiday period is marked by a shift in relative risk of disease from children towards adults. Model results indicated that holidays delay epidemic peaks and synchronize incidence across locations, and contact reductions from school closures rather than age-specific mixing and travel produce these observed holiday flu dynamics.
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] Winter holidays delay seasonal influenza epidemic peaks and shift disease risk towards adults due to changes in contact patterns. These findings may inform targeted influenza information and vaccination campaigns during holiday periods.
? The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] United States; age patterns; epidemiology; influenza; travel patterns; winter holidays
PMID: 28031259 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiw642
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
[h=1]Contact, travel, and transmission: The impact of winter holidays on influenza dynamics in the United States.[/h] Ewing A[SUP]1[/SUP], Lee EC[SUP]1[/SUP], Viboud C[SUP]2[/SUP], Bansal S[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] The seasonality of influenza is thought to vary according to environmental factors and human behavior. During winter holidays, potential disease-causing contact and travel deviate from typical patterns, and we aim to understand these changes on age-specific and spatial flu transmission.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] We characterized the changes to transmission and epidemic trajectories among children and adults in a spatial context before, during, and after the winter holidays among aggregated physician medical claims in the United States from 2001 to 2009 and among synthetic data simulated from a deterministic, age-specific spatial metapopulation model.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] Winter holidays reduced flu transmission and delayed the trajectory of flu season epidemics. The holiday period is marked by a shift in relative risk of disease from children towards adults. Model results indicated that holidays delay epidemic peaks and synchronize incidence across locations, and contact reductions from school closures rather than age-specific mixing and travel produce these observed holiday flu dynamics.
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] Winter holidays delay seasonal influenza epidemic peaks and shift disease risk towards adults due to changes in contact patterns. These findings may inform targeted influenza information and vaccination campaigns during holiday periods.
? The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] United States; age patterns; epidemiology; influenza; travel patterns; winter holidays
PMID: 28031259 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiw642
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]