tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Elife. 2018 Feb 27;7. pii: e30756. doi: 10.7554/eLife.30756. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]Conjunction of factors triggering waves of seasonal influenza.[/h] Chattopadhyay I[SUP]1[/SUP], Kiciman E[SUP]2[/SUP], Elliott JW[SUP]1[/SUP], Shaman JL[SUP]3[/SUP], Rzhetsky A[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] Using several longitudinal datasets describing putative factors affecting influenza incidence and clinical data on the disease and health status of over 150 million human subjects observed over a decade, we investigated the source and the mechanistic triggers of influenza epidemics. We conclude that the initiation of a pan-continental influenza wave emerges from the simultaneous realization of a complex set of conditions. The strongest predictor groups are as follows, ranked by importance: (1) the host population's socio- and ethno-demographic properties; (2) weather variables pertaining to specific humidity, temperature, and solar radiation; (3) the virus' antigenic drift over time; (4) the host populations land-based travel habits, and; (5) recent spatio-temporal dynamics, as reflected in the influenza wave auto-correlation. The models we infer are demonstrably predictive (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve 80%) when tested with out-of-sample data, opening the door to the potential formulation of new population-level intervention and mitigation policies.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] epidemiology; global health; viruses
PMID: 29485041 DOI: 10.7554/eLife.30756
Free full text
[h=1]Conjunction of factors triggering waves of seasonal influenza.[/h] Chattopadhyay I[SUP]1[/SUP], Kiciman E[SUP]2[/SUP], Elliott JW[SUP]1[/SUP], Shaman JL[SUP]3[/SUP], Rzhetsky A[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] Using several longitudinal datasets describing putative factors affecting influenza incidence and clinical data on the disease and health status of over 150 million human subjects observed over a decade, we investigated the source and the mechanistic triggers of influenza epidemics. We conclude that the initiation of a pan-continental influenza wave emerges from the simultaneous realization of a complex set of conditions. The strongest predictor groups are as follows, ranked by importance: (1) the host population's socio- and ethno-demographic properties; (2) weather variables pertaining to specific humidity, temperature, and solar radiation; (3) the virus' antigenic drift over time; (4) the host populations land-based travel habits, and; (5) recent spatio-temporal dynamics, as reflected in the influenza wave auto-correlation. The models we infer are demonstrably predictive (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve 80%) when tested with out-of-sample data, opening the door to the potential formulation of new population-level intervention and mitigation policies.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] epidemiology; global health; viruses
PMID: 29485041 DOI: 10.7554/eLife.30756
Free full text