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Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection in Wales

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Avian influenza A virus (H7N7) associated with human conjunctivitis and a fatal case of acute respiratory distress syndrome

link to the full article is below,not sure if this helps sorry if im barking up the wrong tree.

http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=337057

The article's abstract mentions the possibility of an H7 pandemic.

The acute respiratory distress syndrome brings back memories of SARS from a coronovirus.

So an H7 or any other strain of virus that creates a pandemic, plus another opportunistic virus, suggests a pandemic with localized fatal outbreaks before the development of a more severe, or new strain, pandemic.

That's different from the generaly assumed fowl-mammal-H2H local - H2H mass proliferation model.

FT is justified, therefore, in closely following the development of other viral diseases. (aside from humanitarian grounds)


J.
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

The article's abstract mentions the possibility of an H7 pandemic.

The acute respiratory distress syndrome brings back memories of SARS from a coronovirus.

So an H7 or any other strain of virus that creates a pandemic, plus another opportunistic virus, suggests a pandemic with localized fatal outbreaks before the development of a more severe, or new strain, pandemic.

That's different from the generaly assumed fowl-mammal-H2H local - H2H mass proliferation model.

FT is justified, therefore, in closely following the development of other viral diseases. (aside from humanitarian grounds)


J.
H7 has always been a concern because of H2H, media reports and government pronouncements not withstanding. The linked article was on those positive for H7N7 sequences. The number positive for H7 antibodies was MUCH higher (over a thousand and counting when they stopped testing).
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

The article's abstract mentions the possibility of an H7 pandemic.

The acute respiratory distress syndrome brings back memories of SARS from a coronovirus.

So an H7 or any other strain of virus that creates a pandemic, plus another opportunistic virus, suggests a pandemic with localized fatal outbreaks before the development of a more severe, or new strain, pandemic.

That's different from the generaly assumed fowl-mammal-H2H local - H2H mass proliferation model.

FT is justified, therefore, in closely following the development of other viral diseases. (aside from humanitarian grounds)


J.
Influenza causes acute respiatory distress. In fact some investigators were looking at SARS because they initially thought it was avian influenza (the family from Hong Kong who visited Fujian province developed symptoms in early 2003, when the SARS coronavirus was taking off).
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

H7 viruses are also a concern, becuase, like H5 viruses they can convert into highly pathogenic forms quite readily, but not as readily as H5 viruses. H7 viruses will only become more pathogenic when additional amino acids are added to the cleavage site, whereas LPAI H5 viruses can become HPAI viruses by either an addition of an amino acid to the cleavage site or by substitution of an amino acid within the existing cleavage site.

Just becase its not particularly 'bad' at present, does not mean it will remain that way.

An H7N2 reassortment with H5N1 could be very bad indeed.
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

H7 viruses are also a concern, becuase, like H5 viruses they can convert into highly pathogenic forms quite readily, but not as readily as H5 viruses. H7 viruses will only become more pathogenic when additional amino acids are added to the cleavage site, whereas LPAI H5 viruses can become HPAI viruses by either an addition of an amino acid to the cleavage site or by substitution of an amino acid within the existing cleavage site.

Just becase its not particularly 'bad' at present, does not mean it will remain that way.

An H7N2 reassortment with H5N1 could be very bad indeed.
That is incorrect. Both H5 and H7 can convert by adding or changing amino acids at the cleavage site.

There is no evidence that an H5/H7 reassortant would be bad.
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

That is incorrect. Both H5 and H7 can convert by adding or changing amino acids at the cleavage site.

There is no evidence that an H5/H7 reassortant would be bad.

Can you qualify "bad"? For instance, I would consider any novel virus that spreads easily H2H as "bad" regardless of mortality rate.
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Hi. Looking at the latest update from the National Public Health Service for Wales http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/news.cfm?orgid=719&contentid=6796 Only two tests for H7N2 so far have been positive. I know initially they said there were four positives. I'm just wondering whether these other two might have been positive for type-A flu, but not an H7 subtype..? KBD
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

The first news release refers to H7N2 and specifies 4 persons. It could be badly written?

"...The Health Protection Agency is providing expert support and advice to the National Public Health Service for Wales after an H7N2 avian influenza infection was found in birds on a small farm in north Wales. The Agency has carried out tests on specimens from nine people associated with the incident; seven are from Wales and two were from north west England.
Four of the test results were positive - two of these were from Wales and two were from north west England.The remaining five test results came back as negative. However because these five cases were associated with the birds and had a compatible illness, they are being treated as a precaution.
H7N2 is a low pathogenic strain of avian flu...."
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Hi. Looking at the latest update from the National Public Health Service for Wales http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/news.cfm?orgid=719&contentid=6796 Only two tests for H7N2 so far have been positive. I know initially they said there were four positives. I'm just wondering whether these other two might have been positive for type-A flu, but not an H7 subtype..? KBD
Two were positive in Wales and the other two were from north west England (so not covered by the Wales info). I have seen no hints that the two in north west England were not H7, which is a pretty specific assay and not easily confused with H1 or H3. Assuming the H7 positives in the north are false is a step beyond speculation, unless there has been a specific announcement to that effect.
 
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Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

The first news release refers to H7N2 and specifies 4 persons. It could be badly written?

"...The Health Protection Agency is providing expert support and advice to the National Public Health Service for Wales after an H7N2 avian influenza infection was found in birds on a small farm in north Wales. The Agency has carried out tests on specimens from nine people associated with the incident; seven are from Wales and two were from north west England.
Four of the test results were positive - two of these were from Wales and two were from north west England.The remaining five test results came back as negative. However because these five cases were associated with the birds and had a compatible illness, they are being treated as a precaution.
H7N2 is a low pathogenic strain of avian flu...."
It's not the press release that was badly written. It was quite clear that two were from the north west and two were from Wales.

I suspect the two from Wales were the vet and a family member (as in child), while the two from the north west were investigators called in by the local vet.

I am sure that the child's classmate know the student's identity and relationship to the farm. Since media reports also indicate that the farm owners initially had symptoms, they may have infected the child. Since the owners were tested late, they had probably already cleared the virus, so they were negative, but will almost certainly be positive in a convalescent antibody test.
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Can you qualify "bad"? For instance, I would consider any novel virus that spreads easily H2H as "bad" regardless of mortality rate.
A reassortant with an increased H2H efficiency would be H7, so it is not clear that such a virus would be virulent, because an H7 may not fit in with H5 internal genes, and therefore the cases may be even milder and less infectious than H7N2. This was seen in reassortant tests with H5N1 done by the CDC with human flu genes.
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

they couldn't get any reassortants at all. Not viable.

But they could only test some possible combinations and few possible strains ,
of course.
 
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Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Would someone mind please posting the URL to the government statement that gives the details of the 2 positives from N-W England? Thanks
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

A reassortant with an increased H2H efficiency would be H7, so it is not clear that such a virus would be virulent, because an H7 may not fit in with H5 internal genes, and therefore the cases may be even milder and less infectious than H7N2. This was seen in reassortant tests with H5N1 done by the CDC with human flu genes.

Why is the M230I in the UK cases spreading more quickly than the M230I in Al Gharbaya? Are there other genes in the RBD that are different in these two cases?

.
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Why is the M230I in the UK cases spreading more quickly than the M230I in Al Gharbaya? Are there other genes in the RBD that are different in these two cases?

.
M230I is on H7 in Engkand and on H5 in Egypt.
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Avian flu contacts 'identified'
Health officials say they have identified all the people who came into close contact with an outbreak of avian flu at a smallholding in north Wales.

The number of people who may have had contact with the disease rose over the weekend to 142.
The disease, which is the H7N2 strain of bird flu, not the more virulent H5N1, was first found last week among chickens at a farm near Corwen, Conwy.
Children at a Denbighshire school are being offered anti-viral medication.
A year five pupil at Ysgol Henllan suspected of contracting the virus has been linked to the smallholding.
A dozen children aged nine and 10 and two teachers at the school are being given tamiflu treatments as a precaution.
School meeting
The National Public Health Service of Wales has said a total of 142 people have had either direct or indirect contact with the smallholding.
Four people have tested positive for bird flu and 12 have flu-like symptoms, but no-one is seriously ill.
Of the 142 to come into contact with the virus, 47 came into contact "in the household setting," 14 in the school and 81 in "the workplace setting".
Health officials held a meeting for concerned parents at the school on Monday evening, in which it was stressed the risk of anyone contracting the virus is very small.


Another meeting for those who could not attend is planned for Tuesday evening.
Hugh Pennington, a microbiologist and bird flu expert from Aberdeen University, said there was no risk of the virus being spread from person to person.
Professor Pennington said: "You have to be in quite close contact with infected birds to get infected.
"It doesn't spread from one infected person to another.
"It's still a bird virus - someone infected isn't going to cause any more human cases."
Professor Pennington added that distribution of tamiflu was a sensible precaution.
Birds slaughtered
The first confirmed case involved a smallholding at Llanfihangel Glyn Myfyr, Conwy.
Owners Tony Williams and Barbara Cowling, who have tested negative for the virus, called in a vet after their Rhode Island Red chickens began to die.
They bought the chickens at Chelford Market at Macclesfield, Cheshire, some 70 miles (112 km) away, on 7 May.
A total of 30 chickens from the smallholding have now been slaughtered after 15 birds died.
Officials have stressed that the disease found at the Conwy farm was the H7N2 strain of bird flu, not the more virulent H5N1.
The second possible case emerged on Saturday about 35 miles (56 km) away, at a farm on the outskirts of Efailnewydd, near Pwllheli. It has also been linked to the market.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/wales/6699595.stm
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Would someone mind please posting the URL to the government statement that gives the details of the 2 positives from N-W England? Thanks

Here's the text on the four positives

"Four of the test results were positive - two of these were from Wales and two were from north west England.The remaining five test results came back as negative. However because these five cases were associated with the birds and had a compatible illness, they are being treated as a precaution"
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

M230I is on H7 in Engkand and on H5 in Egypt.
So why aren't the Egyptian cases spreading as quickly as the UK cases, since they both have M230I?

.
 
Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Re: Confirmation of Avian Influenza H7N2 Infection

Here is more text, clearly stating that the four patients were positive for avian influenza (bold added)

The Health Protection Agency is providing expert support and advice to the National Public Health Service for Wales after an H7N2 avian influenza infection was found in birds on a small farm in north Wales. The Agency has carried out tests on specimens from nine people associated with the incident; seven are from Wales and two were from north west England.
Four of the test results were positive - two of these were from Wales and two were from north west England.The remaining five test results came back as negative. However because these five cases were associated with the birds and had a compatible illness, they are being treated as a precaution.
H7N2 is a low pathogenic strain of avian flu. It is different to the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain currently circulating in South East Asia, and in Europe last year. In almost all human cases to date, H7N2 infection has generally been associated with a mild disease. The risk to the general public is considered to be very low.
Pat Troop, Chief Executive of the Health Protection Agency said:-
?As a routine precaution, we have tested those who were associated with the infected or dead birds and reported flu-like symptoms. We tested samples from nine people in our laboratories and confirmed infection in four.
?These test results confirm that human infection with the avian flu virus has occurred. The cases so far have been associated with the infected birds. ?It is important to remember that H7N2 avian flu remains largely a disease of birds.
 
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