Computational quantitative projections for H1N1 flu dynamics in the United States

[Shiloh]

Source: http://rocs.northwestern.edu/projects/swine_flu/

Computational quantitative projections for H1N1 flu dynamics in the United States

Last updated: May 4, 2009 6:40pm (GMT+6)
Projection as of May 4
The following maps show the projected number of cases in the United States at the county level. This is a worst case scenario, in which no containment measures are taken to mitigate the spread.

Video

We are using high performance computational techniques and multi-layer, large scale computer simulations to project the time course of the H1N1 flu epidemic in the United States. Our simulations yield projections and risk assessments of the epidemic outbreak in a worst case scenario, in which no containment measures are taken to mitigate the spread. Therefore, the actual case numbers are expected to be smaller as mitigation strategies and containment efforts become effective. We are constantly updating our forecast, taking into account new information on confirmed cases and more precise information on the transmissibilty and disease-specific parameters.

Our modeling is based on the current knowledge of the disease parameters and takes into account the backbone of spatial spread: A precise estimate of human mobility on spatial scales between a few and a few thousand kilometers. Our projections resolve the expected dynamics down to the county scale (3,109 counties in mainland United States). Details of our modeling approach are provided on the Methodology page.

 

[Dark Horse]

Re: Computational quantitative projections for H1N1 flu dynamics in the United States

CDC said yesterday that there were 700 probable cases in 44 states, so this model looks like a significant undercount.

 

[wotan]

Re: Computational quantitative projections for H1N1 flu dynamics in the United States

Bump.

We should be close to 2000 cases in just the USA by now!

 

[Rocky]

5,764 cases 9 deaths

5,764 cases 9 deaths

a little more than 2000

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm

Table. U.S. Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection
(As of May 21, 2009, 11:00 AM ET) States* Confirmed and Probable Cases Deaths
Alabama 64 cases 1 deaths
Arkansas 3 cases 0 deaths
Arizona 488 cases 2 deaths
California 553 cases 0 deaths
Colorado 55 cases 0 deaths
Connecticut 59 cases 0 deaths
Delaware 88 cases 0 deaths
Florida 122 cases 0 deaths
Georgia 25 cases 0 deaths
Hawaii 30 cases 0 deaths
Idaho 8 cases 0 deaths
Illinois 794 cases 0 deaths
Indiana 105 cases 0 deaths
Iowa 71 cases 0 deaths
Kansas 34 cases 0 deaths
Kentucky** 20 cases 0 deaths
Louisiana 73 cases 0 deaths
Maine 9 cases 0 deaths
Maryland 39 cases 0 deaths
Massachusetts 175 cases 0 deaths
Michigan 171 cases 0 deaths
Minnesota 39 cases 0 deaths
Mississippi 5 cases 0 deaths
Missouri 20 cases 1 deaths
Montana 9 cases 0 deaths
Nebraska 28 cases 0 deaths
Nevada 33 cases 0 deaths
New Hampshire 22 cases 0 deaths
New Jersey 22 cases 0 deaths
New Mexico 68 cases 0 deaths
New York 284 cases 1 deaths
North Carolina 12 cases 0 deaths
North Dakota 5 cases 0 deaths
Ohio 13 cases 0 deaths
Oklahoma 43 cases 0 deaths
Oregon 94 cases 0 deaths
Pennsylvania 61 cases 0 deaths
Rhode Island 8 cases 0 deaths
South Carolina 36 cases 0 deaths
South Dakota 4 cases 0 deaths
Tennessee 86 cases 0 deaths
Texas 556 cases 3 deaths
Utah 116 cases 1 deaths
Vermont 1 cases 0 deaths
Virginia 23 cases 0 deaths
Washington 411 cases 1 death
Washington, D.C. 13 cases 0 deaths
Wisconsin 766 cases 0 deaths
TOTAL*(48) 5,764 cases 9 deaths

 

[wotan]

Re: 5,764 cases 9 deaths

Re: 5,764 cases 9 deaths

a little more than 2000

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm

Yeah they were just a little off in their model, weren't they.

 

[tropical]

Re: Computational quantitative projections for H1N1 flu dynamics in the United States

Hmm, doesn't recently stated by USA media that there are probably already as 100.000 cases, but many with small symptoms even not reported as cases?

What with the theory of 10 times more cases than are reported or traced?

700-2000 cases? Such numbers are now at their fresh recent spreading in Japan ...

If the numbers are so small after 1 month, maybe it is realy an mediatic flu, as many countries fogging ... but from FT posts of Recombinomics projections, the numbers are much, much greater.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Computational quantitative projections for H1N1 flu dynamics in the United States

how many Mexflu-viruses do you estimate are there currently in USA ?

(ask that at CDC-briefings)

 

[wotan]

Re: Computational quantitative projections for H1N1 flu dynamics in the United States

how many Mexflu-viruses do you estimate are there currently in USA ?

(ask that at CDC-briefings)

Latest guidance suggests it is somewhere between ~5000 and ~360,000,000.

 

[Shiloh]

Re: Computational quantitative projections for H1N1 flu dynamics in the United States

They have updated their model today...:
http://rocs.northwestern.edu/projects/swine_flu/

(Note go to source page above for more info and simulations/projections)

"With our projections, we correctly identified hot spots and the overall geographical pattern of the novel virus in the United States. We proportionately estimated the number of cases that would be detected for each county of the continental US.

As of May 19, H1N1 influenza was widespread in the United States. The total number of cases was at 5,469 individuals and the infection had been reported in all but two states. Since the large majority of cases showed mild symptoms and testing shifted focus to the more severe cases, the official number of cases is no longer a good indicator for the actual cases of illness.

Sustained Phase: Analysis of Long-Term Impact

As of this week, we are shifting our focus towards a detailed analysis of the geographical pattern of the novel infection and assessment of the long-term impacts of this new virus. From the information obtained so far, we are also extracting information about this virus that will allow for a better understanding of the disease and more accurate models.

Last Projection
The following maps show the projected number of cases in the United States at the county level. The range of numbers represent the most likely outcome according to our model, a confidence interval of 90% (see below for explanation). This is a worst case scenario, in which no containment measures are taken to mitigate the spread. We used the confirmed cases as of May 6th for calibration and project from there on.

Because we adjust our simulations every 24?48 hours, our projections are subject to changes. At the moment our model projects a probable range of 6600?7900 by May 17, 2009 in United States.