tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Comp Immunol Microbiol Infect Dis
. 2021 Nov 27;80:101721.
doi: 10.1016/j.cimid.2021.101721. Online ahead of print.
Mathematical modeling of bird flu with vaccination and treatment for the poultry farms
Abdul Malek[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ashabul Hoque[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
A deterministic six-compartmental model was developed based on the progression of the disease in poultry, the epidemiological status of the individuals, and intervention measures. The Runge-Kutta method is applied to calculate the variables of the system of equations of the proposed model. The evolution of the epidemic provides some results, such as reproduction number, vaccine efficiency, and antiviral treatment. Numerical results show that the outbreak sizes known as the infected curves increase and decrease with the vaccine limitation rate and treatment rate, respectively, for a specific transmission rate. The calculated results of the reproduction number indicate that avian influenza would spread when vaccine efficiency is less than 70%, and the primary reproduction number is greater than 1. Finally, the disease-free equilibrium of the model is found locally and globally asymptotically stable for R[SUB]0[/SUB] < 1.
Keywords: Antiviral treatment; Basic reproduction number; Bird flu; SEIATR model; Stability analysis; Vaccination.
. 2021 Nov 27;80:101721.
doi: 10.1016/j.cimid.2021.101721. Online ahead of print.
Mathematical modeling of bird flu with vaccination and treatment for the poultry farms
Abdul Malek[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ashabul Hoque[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34891070
- DOI: 10.1016/j.cimid.2021.101721
Abstract
A deterministic six-compartmental model was developed based on the progression of the disease in poultry, the epidemiological status of the individuals, and intervention measures. The Runge-Kutta method is applied to calculate the variables of the system of equations of the proposed model. The evolution of the epidemic provides some results, such as reproduction number, vaccine efficiency, and antiviral treatment. Numerical results show that the outbreak sizes known as the infected curves increase and decrease with the vaccine limitation rate and treatment rate, respectively, for a specific transmission rate. The calculated results of the reproduction number indicate that avian influenza would spread when vaccine efficiency is less than 70%, and the primary reproduction number is greater than 1. Finally, the disease-free equilibrium of the model is found locally and globally asymptotically stable for R[SUB]0[/SUB] < 1.
Keywords: Antiviral treatment; Basic reproduction number; Bird flu; SEIATR model; Stability analysis; Vaccination.