tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Clin Infect Dis
. 2020 Oct 20;ciaa1584.
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1584. Online ahead of print.
Different transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and influenza suggest the relative efficiency of isolation/quarantine and social distancing against COVID-19 in China
Hao Lei[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xifeng Wu[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Xiao Wang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Modi Xu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yu Xie[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Xiangjun Du[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Benjamin J Cowling[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Yuguo Li[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Yuelong Shu[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) are vital to reducing the transmission risks. However, the relative efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 remains controversial, since social distancing and isolation/quarantine were implemented almost at the same time in China.
Methods: In this study, surveillance data of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza in the year 2018-2020 were used to quantify the relative efficiency of NPIs against COVID-19 in China, since isolation/quarantine was not used for the influenza epidemics. Given that the relative age-dependent susceptibility to influenza and COVID-19 may vary, an age-structured Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model was built to explore the efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 under different population susceptibility scenarios.
Results: The mean effective reproductive number, Rt, of COVID-19 before NPIs was 2.12 (95% confidential interval (CI): 2.02-2.21). By March 11, 2020, the overall reduction in Rt of COVID-19 was 66.1% (95% CI: 60.1%-71.2%). In the epidemiological year 2019/20, influenza transmissibility reduced by 34.6% (95% CI: 31.3%-38.2%) compared with that in the epidemiological year 2018/19. Under the observed contact patterns changes in China, social distancing had similar efficiency against COVID-19 in three different scenarios. By assuming same efficiency of social distancing against seasonal influenza and COVID-19 transmission, isolation/quarantine and social distancing could lead to a 48.1% (95% CI: 35.4%-58.1%) and 34.6% (95% CI: 31.3%-38.2%) reduction of the transmissibility of COVID-19.
Conclusions: Though isolation/quarantine is more effective than social distancing, given that typical basic reproductive number of COVID-19 is 2-3, isolation/quarantine alone could not contain the COVID-19 pandemic effectively in China.
Keywords: COVID-19; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; effective reproductive number; efficiency; influenza.
. 2020 Oct 20;ciaa1584.
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1584. Online ahead of print.
Different transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and influenza suggest the relative efficiency of isolation/quarantine and social distancing against COVID-19 in China
Hao Lei[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xifeng Wu[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Xiao Wang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Modi Xu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yu Xie[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Xiangjun Du[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Benjamin J Cowling[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Yuguo Li[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Yuelong Shu[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33080000
- DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1584
Abstract
Background: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) are vital to reducing the transmission risks. However, the relative efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 remains controversial, since social distancing and isolation/quarantine were implemented almost at the same time in China.
Methods: In this study, surveillance data of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza in the year 2018-2020 were used to quantify the relative efficiency of NPIs against COVID-19 in China, since isolation/quarantine was not used for the influenza epidemics. Given that the relative age-dependent susceptibility to influenza and COVID-19 may vary, an age-structured Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model was built to explore the efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 under different population susceptibility scenarios.
Results: The mean effective reproductive number, Rt, of COVID-19 before NPIs was 2.12 (95% confidential interval (CI): 2.02-2.21). By March 11, 2020, the overall reduction in Rt of COVID-19 was 66.1% (95% CI: 60.1%-71.2%). In the epidemiological year 2019/20, influenza transmissibility reduced by 34.6% (95% CI: 31.3%-38.2%) compared with that in the epidemiological year 2018/19. Under the observed contact patterns changes in China, social distancing had similar efficiency against COVID-19 in three different scenarios. By assuming same efficiency of social distancing against seasonal influenza and COVID-19 transmission, isolation/quarantine and social distancing could lead to a 48.1% (95% CI: 35.4%-58.1%) and 34.6% (95% CI: 31.3%-38.2%) reduction of the transmissibility of COVID-19.
Conclusions: Though isolation/quarantine is more effective than social distancing, given that typical basic reproductive number of COVID-19 is 2-3, isolation/quarantine alone could not contain the COVID-19 pandemic effectively in China.
Keywords: COVID-19; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; effective reproductive number; efficiency; influenza.