tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Clin Epidemiol Glob Health
. May-Jun 2022;15:101052.
doi: 10.1016/j.cegh.2022.101052. Epub 2022 May 5.
Modelling the impact of perfect and imperfect vaccination strategy against SARS CoV-2 by assuming varied vaccine efficacy over India
Nikhila Yaladanda[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Rajasekhar Mopuri[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Hari Prasad Vavilala[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: The outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has swiftly spread globally and caused public health and socio-economic disruption in many countries. An epidemiological modelling studies in the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) has played an important role for making effective public health policy to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The aim of the present study is to investigate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the COVID-19 pandemic in India.
Methods: We have applied compartment mathematical model susceptible-vaccination-infectious-removed (SVIR) with different range of vaccine efficacy scenarios and predicted the population to be covered for vaccination per day in India as well as state level was performed.
Results: The model assumed that a vaccine has 100% efficacy, predicted that >5 million populace to be vaccinated per day to flatten the epidemic curve in India. Similarly, different vaccination mechanisms such as 'all-or-nothing' (AoN) and leaky vaccines does not have potential discordance in their effectiveness at higher efficacies (>70%). However, AoN vaccine was found to be marginally effective than leaky at lower efficacies (<70%) when administered at the higher coverage strategies. Further state level analyses were performed and it was found that 0.3, 0.3, 0.2 and 1 million vaccinations required per day in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Kerala and Maharashtra as it assumes that the vaccine efficacy is 70%.
Conclusion: The proposed modelling approach shows a range of assumptions on the efficacy of vaccine which helps the health authorities to prioritize the vaccination strategies to prevent the transmission as well as disease.
Keywords: All or nothing; COVID-19; Efficacy; India; Leaky; SVIR compartmental model; Vaccination.
. May-Jun 2022;15:101052.
doi: 10.1016/j.cegh.2022.101052. Epub 2022 May 5.
Modelling the impact of perfect and imperfect vaccination strategy against SARS CoV-2 by assuming varied vaccine efficacy over India
Nikhila Yaladanda[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Rajasekhar Mopuri[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Hari Prasad Vavilala[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35535224
- PMCID: PMC9068602
- DOI: 10.1016/j.cegh.2022.101052
Abstract
Background: The outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has swiftly spread globally and caused public health and socio-economic disruption in many countries. An epidemiological modelling studies in the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) has played an important role for making effective public health policy to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The aim of the present study is to investigate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the COVID-19 pandemic in India.
Methods: We have applied compartment mathematical model susceptible-vaccination-infectious-removed (SVIR) with different range of vaccine efficacy scenarios and predicted the population to be covered for vaccination per day in India as well as state level was performed.
Results: The model assumed that a vaccine has 100% efficacy, predicted that >5 million populace to be vaccinated per day to flatten the epidemic curve in India. Similarly, different vaccination mechanisms such as 'all-or-nothing' (AoN) and leaky vaccines does not have potential discordance in their effectiveness at higher efficacies (>70%). However, AoN vaccine was found to be marginally effective than leaky at lower efficacies (<70%) when administered at the higher coverage strategies. Further state level analyses were performed and it was found that 0.3, 0.3, 0.2 and 1 million vaccinations required per day in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Kerala and Maharashtra as it assumes that the vaccine efficacy is 70%.
Conclusion: The proposed modelling approach shows a range of assumptions on the efficacy of vaccine which helps the health authorities to prioritize the vaccination strategies to prevent the transmission as well as disease.
Keywords: All or nothing; COVID-19; Efficacy; India; Leaky; SVIR compartmental model; Vaccination.