tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Clin Epidemiol Glob Health
. Apr-Jun 2021;10:100684.
doi: 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.100684. Epub 2020 Dec 25.
Dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Dhaka and Chittagong: Two business hubs of Bangladesh
Zakaria Shams Siam[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Md Arifuzzaman[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Md Salik Ahmed[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Faisal Ahamed Khan[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Md Harunur Rashid[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Md Shariful Islam[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: Having inadequate health care systems and poor socio-economic infrastructure, Bangladesh has been braving to contain the impact of current COVID-19 pandemic since March, 2020. To curb the diffusion of COVID-19, the local government has responded to the outbreak by enforcing a set of restricted measures on economic and social activities across the country.
Objectives: Here, we aim to assess the propagation of COVID-19 by estimating the coronavirus active cases and mortality rate in two major business hubs of Bangladesh, namely Dhaka and Chittagong city under flexible lockdown conditions.
Methods: We apply a data-driven forecasting model using Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered and Deaths status through time to deal with coronavirus outbreak.
Results: The epidemiological model forecasts the dire consequences for Dhaka city with 2400 death cases at the end of December, 2020, whereas Chittagong city might experience 14% more deaths than Dhaka if the severe restrictions are not implemented to control the pandemic.
Conclusion: Although lockdown has a positive impact in reducing the diffusion of COVID-19, it is disastrous for human welfare and national economies. Therefore, a unidirectional decision by the policymakers might cost a very high price on either way for a lower-middle-income country, Bangladesh. In this study, we suggest a fair trade-off between public health and the economy to avoid enormous death tolls and economic havoc in Bangladesh.
Keywords: Bangladesh; COVID-19; Epidemic model; Lockdown; SARS-CoV-2.
. Apr-Jun 2021;10:100684.
doi: 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.100684. Epub 2020 Dec 25.
Dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Dhaka and Chittagong: Two business hubs of Bangladesh
Zakaria Shams Siam[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Md Arifuzzaman[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Md Salik Ahmed[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Faisal Ahamed Khan[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Md Harunur Rashid[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Md Shariful Islam[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33392419
- PMCID: PMC7759449
- DOI: 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.100684
Abstract
Background: Having inadequate health care systems and poor socio-economic infrastructure, Bangladesh has been braving to contain the impact of current COVID-19 pandemic since March, 2020. To curb the diffusion of COVID-19, the local government has responded to the outbreak by enforcing a set of restricted measures on economic and social activities across the country.
Objectives: Here, we aim to assess the propagation of COVID-19 by estimating the coronavirus active cases and mortality rate in two major business hubs of Bangladesh, namely Dhaka and Chittagong city under flexible lockdown conditions.
Methods: We apply a data-driven forecasting model using Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered and Deaths status through time to deal with coronavirus outbreak.
Results: The epidemiological model forecasts the dire consequences for Dhaka city with 2400 death cases at the end of December, 2020, whereas Chittagong city might experience 14% more deaths than Dhaka if the severe restrictions are not implemented to control the pandemic.
Conclusion: Although lockdown has a positive impact in reducing the diffusion of COVID-19, it is disastrous for human welfare and national economies. Therefore, a unidirectional decision by the policymakers might cost a very high price on either way for a lower-middle-income country, Bangladesh. In this study, we suggest a fair trade-off between public health and the economy to avoid enormous death tolls and economic havoc in Bangladesh.
Keywords: Bangladesh; COVID-19; Epidemic model; Lockdown; SARS-CoV-2.