gsgs
Registered User
Source: http://www.infirmiers.com/actualites/actualites/grippe-ah1n1-le-calme-avant-la-tempete.html
Seize up has (H1N1): The calm one before the storm The winter wave of new influenza has (H1N1)
perhaps did not arrive yet because of the softness of the climate, estimated Thursday the president
of the commission " diseases transmissibles" high council of public health (HCSP), Pr Christian
Perronne, with the course of a press conference with the ministry for health. It made state of a
" small wavelet before summer" in France and currently a " background noise with persistence of case.
But this is not because today a large epidemic movement is not seen that will not come in the next
few weeks. That will strike large agglomerations in France, like ' Island-of-France". The specialist
underlined the importance of the climate in an epidemic. In the southern hemisphere, there was a
small epidemic wave, because in particular the winters are less rigorous there, specifies it by
underlining softness noted these last weeks in our regions. For the southern hemisphere, " one
cannot judge completely" of the width of the epidemic because the population is also " less importante"
than in the northern hemisphere, adds he. Pr Perronne recalled that the mortality in the world analyzes
had shown that the proportion of death of the influenza has (H1N1) was similar to that for the seasonal
flu but that there would be approximately three times more death parce than approximately three times
more people should be infected by this new virus. In addition, these deaths will touch more the young
subjects, the children and the expectant mothers. He added that the National Sanitary Surveillance
Institute (InVS) carried out modelings on the subject, on the basis of scenario various going from most
optimistic to most pessimistic. The width of vagueness, the existence or not of a second will depend
on the adhesion in the vaccination campaign, of the use of oseltamivir (Tamiflu*, Rock) and of the
capacities of care of reanimation, estimates Christian Perronne. If that it is not a puncture of recall
aiming at remobiliser concern I make monk with Achel!!! Where was it shown that the proportion of
death of influenza A/H1N1 was similar to that for the seasonal flu? To say that there will be a large
epidemic movement in the next weeks concerns the obviousness! Every year there is million French
reached of the influenza and between 2500 and 5000 who die about it! It is sure, soon, one will give
to us an account - each day - of ten death - at least - due to influenza! Imagine that we have a surmortality
due to the h3n2 as in this beginning 2009; they would be then 30 to 40 died per day which would be
announced until spring! I also know that there is no real stat on the number of deaths due to the seasonal flu,
but it is quite convenient to evoke the generally allowed figures as soon as he is question of the vaccination
campaign.
Seize up has (H1N1): The calm one before the storm The winter wave of new influenza has (H1N1)
perhaps did not arrive yet because of the softness of the climate, estimated Thursday the president
of the commission " diseases transmissibles" high council of public health (HCSP), Pr Christian
Perronne, with the course of a press conference with the ministry for health. It made state of a
" small wavelet before summer" in France and currently a " background noise with persistence of case.
But this is not because today a large epidemic movement is not seen that will not come in the next
few weeks. That will strike large agglomerations in France, like ' Island-of-France". The specialist
underlined the importance of the climate in an epidemic. In the southern hemisphere, there was a
small epidemic wave, because in particular the winters are less rigorous there, specifies it by
underlining softness noted these last weeks in our regions. For the southern hemisphere, " one
cannot judge completely" of the width of the epidemic because the population is also " less importante"
than in the northern hemisphere, adds he. Pr Perronne recalled that the mortality in the world analyzes
had shown that the proportion of death of the influenza has (H1N1) was similar to that for the seasonal
flu but that there would be approximately three times more death parce than approximately three times
more people should be infected by this new virus. In addition, these deaths will touch more the young
subjects, the children and the expectant mothers. He added that the National Sanitary Surveillance
Institute (InVS) carried out modelings on the subject, on the basis of scenario various going from most
optimistic to most pessimistic. The width of vagueness, the existence or not of a second will depend
on the adhesion in the vaccination campaign, of the use of oseltamivir (Tamiflu*, Rock) and of the
capacities of care of reanimation, estimates Christian Perronne. If that it is not a puncture of recall
aiming at remobiliser concern I make monk with Achel!!! Where was it shown that the proportion of
death of influenza A/H1N1 was similar to that for the seasonal flu? To say that there will be a large
epidemic movement in the next weeks concerns the obviousness! Every year there is million French
reached of the influenza and between 2500 and 5000 who die about it! It is sure, soon, one will give
to us an account - each day - of ten death - at least - due to influenza! Imagine that we have a surmortality
due to the h3n2 as in this beginning 2009; they would be then 30 to 40 died per day which would be
announced until spring! I also know that there is no real stat on the number of deaths due to the seasonal flu,
but it is quite convenient to evoke the generally allowed figures as soon as he is question of the vaccination
campaign.