Ronan Kelly
Retired 2020
Climate change and the potential global distribution of Aedes
aegypti: spatial modelling using geographical information
system and CLIMEX
Hassan M. Khormi1,2, Lalit Kumar3
1 KACST GIS Technology Innovation Centre, Umm Al-Qura University, P.O. Box 715, Makkah, 21955, Saudi
Arabia; 2 Department of Geography, Umm Al-Qura University, P.O. Box 715, Makkah, 21955, Saudi Arabia;
3 Ecosystem Management, University of New England, Armidale NSW 2351 Australia
Abstract. We examined the potential added risk posed by global climate change on the dengue vector Aedes aegypti abundance using CLIMEX, a powerful tool for exploring the relationship between the fundamental and realised niche of any
species. After calibrating the model using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records,
we estimated potential distributions of the mosquito under current and future potential scenarios. The impact of climate
change on its potential distribution was assessed with two global climate models, the CSIRO-Mk3.0 and the MIROC-H,
run with two potential, future emission scenarios (A1B and A2) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. We compared today?s climate situation with two arbitrarily chosen future time points (2030 and 2070) to see the
impact on the worldwide distribution of A. aegypti. The model for the current global climate indicated favourable areas for
the mosquito within its known distribution in tropical and subtropical areas. However, even if much of the tropics and subtropics will continue to be suitable, the climatically favourable areas for A. aegypti globally are projected to contract under
the future scenarios produced by these models, while currently unfavourable areas, such as inland Australia, the Arabian
Peninsula, southern Iran and some parts of North America may become climatically favourable for this mosquito species.
The climate models for the Aedes dengue vector presented here should be useful for management purposes as they can be
adapted for decision/making regarding allocation of resources for dengue risk toward areas where risk infection remains and
away from areas where climatic suitability is likely to decrease in the future.
Keywords: Aedes aegypti, climate change, CLIMEX, dengue, geographical information system, infection.
....
Full paper at http://www.geospatialhealth.unina.it/articles/v8i2/gh-v8i2-08-khormi.pdf
aegypti: spatial modelling using geographical information
system and CLIMEX
Hassan M. Khormi1,2, Lalit Kumar3
1 KACST GIS Technology Innovation Centre, Umm Al-Qura University, P.O. Box 715, Makkah, 21955, Saudi
Arabia; 2 Department of Geography, Umm Al-Qura University, P.O. Box 715, Makkah, 21955, Saudi Arabia;
3 Ecosystem Management, University of New England, Armidale NSW 2351 Australia
Abstract. We examined the potential added risk posed by global climate change on the dengue vector Aedes aegypti abundance using CLIMEX, a powerful tool for exploring the relationship between the fundamental and realised niche of any
species. After calibrating the model using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records,
we estimated potential distributions of the mosquito under current and future potential scenarios. The impact of climate
change on its potential distribution was assessed with two global climate models, the CSIRO-Mk3.0 and the MIROC-H,
run with two potential, future emission scenarios (A1B and A2) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. We compared today?s climate situation with two arbitrarily chosen future time points (2030 and 2070) to see the
impact on the worldwide distribution of A. aegypti. The model for the current global climate indicated favourable areas for
the mosquito within its known distribution in tropical and subtropical areas. However, even if much of the tropics and subtropics will continue to be suitable, the climatically favourable areas for A. aegypti globally are projected to contract under
the future scenarios produced by these models, while currently unfavourable areas, such as inland Australia, the Arabian
Peninsula, southern Iran and some parts of North America may become climatically favourable for this mosquito species.
The climate models for the Aedes dengue vector presented here should be useful for management purposes as they can be
adapted for decision/making regarding allocation of resources for dengue risk toward areas where risk infection remains and
away from areas where climatic suitability is likely to decrease in the future.
Keywords: Aedes aegypti, climate change, CLIMEX, dengue, geographical information system, infection.
....
Full paper at http://www.geospatialhealth.unina.it/articles/v8i2/gh-v8i2-08-khormi.pdf