Port congestion in China is 'getting worse by the day': Breakwave Advisors Founder
August 20, 2021
Breakwave Advisors Founder and Managing Partner John Kartsonas breaks down how Chinese port congestion is impacting the United States.
Video Transcript
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JOHN KARTSONAS: Well, I think the situation is getting worse by the day. But again, it all depends on how the virus will progress in China.
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And it's not only, obviously, on the container side. You see the same thing on the dry bulk side. As we speak, about 15% of the dry bulk fleet is basically waiting and congested outside ports. So it's both the container ships, which, obviously, affect the consumer spending, and the dry bulk. And I think that will be with us for a while because, obviously, shipping and the massive amount of cargo that they move takes a lot of time to clear and return to some kind of a normal situation.
AKIKO FUJITA: So when you say it's going to be with us for some time, what kind of backlog are we talking about? And what specific goods do you think are most likely to be affected?
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But again, you know, as we know, the waves come and go all the time. And it's not only in one particular spot, like the Ningbo port of Shanghai. You have at least a dozen ports that this is happening. So this is causing basically freight rates to increase substantially because, you know, if you have one ship and three cargoes, these three cargoes are competing for the one ship. And whoever pays the most is taking the ship.
And that's what's happening today with freight rates. I mean, if you look at the Baltic Dry Index, which is a very well known industry shipping, if it's an 11-year high, actually, every day now for the last few weeks, that same thing goes on the container side. So I think pricing is very related to the supply and demand. And the supply, which is the congestion, is very high today.
JARED BLIKRE: Well, you say this is going to take a while to play out. We're already thinking about the holiday season here. And I've seen some-- a few reports that are raising the hairs on the back of my neck here. I'm just wondering, how bad could it get-- and I don't want to get into any fear mongering. But could there be some kind of meltdown if the situation worsens?
JOHN KARTSONAS: Well, I mean, I don't know what the meltdown is in terms of, like, measuring, but in reality, it is, you're talking about tens of thousands of ships that are moving, like, an immense amount of cargo every day. Now, this machine was very well oiled until, basically, the COVID-19 crisis. And now, it's a mess. I think that's the best you can describe it. It's very difficult for people to plan. It's very difficult for people to basically make plans for the next month, let alone six months down the road, because the waves come and go.
So let's say, another virus wave in China or in certain ports happens. Immediately, you have the same issue. And it's not only about the crew on board. It's about the people who work on the docks, right? You have all the pilots. So China is putting a lot of measures in order to prevent that. And that's causing more and more delays. Can it spill into next year? I think it can. But for now, I think as we focus on the holiday season, things will-- I think, like, people should expect delays in deliveries, that people who actually buy goods, consumer goods, do the same thing.
https://news.yahoo.com/port-congesti...155400755.html
