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China - Pork prices hit 3 year low and chicken industry continued losses in first quarter 2014

sharon sanders

Editor-in-Chief & President
machine translation

Liu Xiaoxu: pork bottoming inflection fade jiancang poultry stocks
At 13:56 on April 20, 2014 Stock Market Red Week microblogging I have something to say collection this article
Reuters clients Sina Finance Client: Friday, hundreds of companies to be listed in the pre-disclosure and other large-cap stocks or nuclear Film debut
  "Red Week" author Liu Xiaoxu

  Pork bottoming inflection fade

(9.98, 0.00, 0.00%)(36.88, 0.10, 0.27%)

(16.78, -0.19, -1.12%)

  "The typical situation of listed companies presented a microcosm of what is currently in the bottom area of ​​the pig farming industry." Anonymous analyst told reporters that "pork is still in the doldrums, breeding deep loss, while the emerging 'bottoming out' expectations and 'turning point' expectations but continued strength in supporting the farming sector. "

  Reporters learned that the pig farming industry for three years for a period of 1-4 years, is currently in the industry trough, boom reversed after 2011, the industry in 2015 is expected to boom once again usher in a high point, and the first since the second quarter is expected to the end of the third quarter or beginning to improve. Data show that pork is close to the cost of breeding, or 10.5 yuan to 11 yuan / kg, based on historical data, the short-term decline in hog prices already at the end. Since March of this year, pork prices have continued to fall rebounded from 10.5 yuan / kg rebounded to around 14 to 15 yuan / kg, the bounce rate of about 40%. Based on historical experience, the calendar year in May-September will usher in a certain range pork rebound. Slaughter and consumption according to the rhythm of peak judgment in June will be a rapid rise in pork price, July farming will enter the earnings period and maintained until September to October of double spending.

(9.13, 0.12, 1.33%)(8.80, -0.01, -0.11%)(10.38, 0.21, 2.06%)(6.76, 0.03, 0.45%)(5.51, -0.05, -0.90%)

  Ancestor chicken Union to limit production, industry usher in substantial positive

(7.84, -0.07, -0.88%)

  As China's white feather broiler industry's largest production companies, St. agricultural development in 2013 full-year net loss of 214 million yuan, based on the expected first quarter net loss of 95 million yuan ~ 125 million yuan; while China's largest progenitor breeder Health benefits of farming enterprises are loss 293 million yuan shares last year, based on expected first quarter net losses of 60 million to 70 million yuan ......

(9.65, 0.05, 0.52%)

  "Industry Long story short, from April 1, grandparent breeder over 50 weeks (Science Po 52 weeks) must be eliminated gradually reduced by 20% of the total." Recently held in limiting the production of progenitor chicken Union meeting, the white feather broiler industry associations to promote the early resumption of normal production can be reached through consensus basic research. "If these go to production of timely completion of (the current observation data is 2013Q2-3 began to cut), according to the White chicken production release schedule (goods on behalf of the lag more than 1 year), then the 2014 mid-industry boom is expected to gradually recover or even reverse, and part of the listed company's share price or poultry chain 4 to May ushered in the turning point of the situation improves. "analysts said.

  Excellent investment opportunity to usher in the feed industry


  Due to the continued decline in the early pork, chicken prices associated with aquaculture feed industry also significantly affected. Related feed listed companies have said in the earnings report, "adversely affected bird flu, pig cyclical fluctuations in supply, leading to heavy losses of livestock farming enterprises, which makes the feed to a certain extent reduce the sales demand."

http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hyyj/20140420/135618856741.shtml
 
Re: China - Pork prices hit 3 year low and chicken industry continued losses in first quarter 2014

An opinion about 1 food producer:

Sunner Development: poultry chain usher in prosperity inflection, volume and price have started
Category: Research institutions: Qilu Securities Co. Researcher: Xie Gang Date :2014-04-22
Sunner Development released 2013 annual report, the company's annual revenue grew 14.85 percent to 4.708 billion yuan, net profit attributable to the listed company -2.19 billion, equivalent to EPS of $ -0.24. Which converted the company in 2013 Q4 profit 005 million yuan, nearly a year and a half for the first quarter show a profit. 2013 full-year economic slowdown poultry chain, the company single-season chicken fell 1.48 percent, and cost less to maintain long lines, leading to losses of 220 million yuan. 2013 poultry farming industry after the cold wave, not only affected "quick chicken", "H7N9 incident" and other negative factors, while significant excess industry supply, causing the domestic broiler industry downturn. We observed that the company grassroots single-season price data, found only in Q4 above the cost, single feather profit 0.1 yuan (Q4 price of 10,900 yuan / ton; Q1/2/3 single feather earnings were -1.4, -2.0, -0.2 million). At the same time the industry downturn also affected the company's production capacity release schedule slowed down in 2013 full-year sales growth of around 14% to 210 million birds. Overall, in 2013 the company has experienced the most difficult time of its listing, the single feather profit fell to historic low of -0.9 per year / Yu (not considering the extraction of inventory impairment provision 60 million yuan). In summary, in 2013 the company's main business of selling chicken loss of nearly 220 million yuan. Expected losses of the company to continue to 2014Q1 1 billion, but in March improvement was evident. A quarter of pork dropped by the frequent and domestic impact of avian flu, chicken prices continue to slump, gross chicken prices remained 3.85 yuan / feathers, chicken price the company about 9800 yuan / ton, monthly losses of 1.6 yuan / feathers; while the company in 2014 slaughter about 65 million birds in the first quarter, an increase of 15-20%. But grassroots monthly data show that since late March, the company significantly improved channels for customers, such as KFC and McDonald significant increase in sales rebounded due to restocking demand, the price growth of around 5%. 2014 ushered in the second quarter poultry industry chain to restore even reversed inflection point, it is recommended to continue the chain of poultry holdings, including St. agricultural development volume and price, is a key recommendation of the chain of poultry breeds. According to preliminary Shandong poultry industry research, the current downstream seed and meat industry losses to increase, especially ancestral farms, prompting seed plant since 2013 Q2-3 began to appear introduction by quarter decline; and March white feather Broiler Industry Alliance held a meeting aimed at controlling the total white feather chicken, while various progenitor field of production agreements, expected in 2014 is expected to decline in the amount of progenitor introduction of chicken to about 1.2 million units. Well, according to the growth cycle is estimated White chicken, poultry chain boom will appear in 2014 in the second half> first half of 2015> 2014, then the second half of 2014 or even reverse the gradual recovery industry boom, ushered in the secondary market in 4-5 months situation improves profitability inflection point. Industry trough, Sunner with industrial chain integration advantages and intensive management style counter-cyclical expansion, aimed at long-term sustainable and healthy development of the layout. (1) the company has increased efforts to develop excellent large customers, the company has with Wal-Mart (China) partnership, Wal-Mart is expected to become the largest supplier of chicken products directly. The future will continue to cooperate with the international renowned food production enterprises, multinational chain enterprises to develop new products and markets, expand sales channels. New products (2) can also be contrarian expansion in the industry recovery to pick up when the market for the company to seize the initiative, to further establish the company's leadership in the industry. Fujian Sunner Development (Pucheng) Co., Ltd. has six kinds of farms are now put into operation in late December 2013 was the start of broiler slaughter and processing. Oceanus Industrial is expected in the first half 2014 to achieve the first Parent farm production. We maintain our 2014-15 earnings forecasts, the company expects 2014-15 EPS0.09, 0.60 yuan, an increase of 138%, 569%. Overall, we expect that from May 2014 pork price will rebound into the channel, and is expected to maintain an overall upward trend in 5-9 months, the poultry stocks rebound level greater than pig stocks rebound, the proposed quarterly impact every animal jiancang poultry industry chain, promising probiotic shares, public and shares, St. agricultural development, new hopes and poultry stocks. We expect rapid increases if poultry chain of production capacity to the full, multi-year will usher in the second half of the industry or market reversal, triggering a whole chain of improving corporate earnings and valuations, and one species St. agricultural development will benefit the most. Maintain the company "overweight" rating, target price of 12 yuan, the corresponding 2015 20xPE.

http://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/q/go.php/vReport_Show/kind/lastest/rptid/2299329/index.phtml
 
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