China - Pig prices are rising - January 22, 2024, demand low for New Year?

[sharon sanders]

[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]Pig prices, this rise is unusual![/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]2024-01-22 10:17[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]On Monday, January 22, 2024, pig prices rose in many places. [/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑]In fact, since Saturday afternoon, reports from monitoring points on rising pig prices have been summarized on Souzhu.com. This rise in pig prices is unusual.[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]Big fat grab[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]Since January 12, the price of live pigs has bottomed out and rebounded. As of January 17, it began to fall, and it was not until January 20 that it rebounded again. [/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑]Starting from the afternoon of Saturday, January 20, Souzhu.com monitoring points have successively reported pig catching news. There has been a significant rebound in big fat pigs, especially small pigs in many places, and the increase is particularly obvious. [/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑]In fact, the price of big fat has been rebounding since it crashed to a low point on January 12. Now, the price of big fat is once again higher than that of standard pigs.[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]The piglets have already escaped[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]In December 2023, the price of piglets increased compared with November, from about 200 to about 260. In December, the price of piglets exceeded 300 yuan, reaching the range of 300-400 yuan. In January, the price of piglets reached the range of more than 450 yuan, see Article on January 16:[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑] [/FONT][/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]"Is the price of pigs going up? [/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑]Piglet prices have quietly started to rise! 》 .[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]The rise in piglet prices cannot escape the law of supply and demand, which means that the demand for piglets exceeds the supply. As mentioned in the article, either the enthusiasm for replenishing piglets has increased, or the number of piglets has shrunk significantly. [/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑]Combined with the declining market in the past three years, the latter accounts for a greater weight.[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]What is the reason for overcapacity reduction? [/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑]This is very important.[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]The reduction in the number of piglets shows that when the price of piglets increases, push forward 4 months and the number of sows or pregnant sows will decrease. [/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑]The price of piglets begins to increase in November, so the number of pregnant sows should decrease significantly around July. [/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑]Therefore, it is speculated that the big pig gap may be in May 2024.[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]However, the reduction of pregnant sows is not an active reduction in production.[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]Looking back around July, during the summer, Xiaofei was under severe pressure in various places. Many regions and group pig farms were infected, and the epidemic damage was not only infected in fattening pigs, but also in pregnant sows. [/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑]Superimposing the above factors, the big pig gap mentioned above may be in May 2024, or earlier![/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]Will this price increase come down quickly?[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]Referring to the previous article, [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]"[January 15th Pig Review] Why did pig prices plummet again last week? [/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑]Is this week's V-shaped rebound the bottom of the cycle? [/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑]》[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑] , March may be the turning point for large pig supply. [/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑]Referring to the above inference, there is also a gap in May (or earlier). Therefore, the editor sticks to the previous point of view. If the price goes up all the way this time, the demand for the Spring Festival will increase and the gap after the Spring Festival will be superimposed. [/FONT][/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]The price of pigs may not be very high after the Spring Festival. Difference.[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]Expectation, profit pig cycle[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑]Today, in addition to the obvious increase in big fat prices, the price of standard pigs has also begun to increase, and the increase rate is not lower than that of big fat prices. [/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑]However, we have to note that the current price has not yet reached the cost line of raising pigs. It remains to be seen whether it can rise to the profit range. On the other hand, it also remains to be seen whether the consumer side can bear the increase in prices. [/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑]However, judging from the current situation, this price rebound is different from every rebound since July 2023. In the past, the supply of pigs was relatively abundant, but this time, there are obviously not many pigs for retail investors in the market. Therefore, it is expected that the rise in pig prices will enter the profit range in one fell swoop and last for a period of time, giving the scarred pig industry a real chance to breathe.

source - zhttps://www.soozhu.com/article/489183/[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]

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[sharon sanders]

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China’s Lunar New Year Pork Gloom Exposes Deep Economic Trouble

• Festive season traditionally sees high demand for meats
• Sustained low pork prices worsening China’s deflationary fears

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By Hallie Gu and Alfred Cang
February 2, 2024 at 8:00 PM EST


For families across China preparing for Lunar New Year, the most important celebration in the calendar, pork is a must. An ingredient synonymous with prosperity and abundance, it’s used in countless dishes and cured for festive delicacies.

But in Beijing’s Xinmin market, vendor Wu Aizhen is struggling. Though pork prices have fallen by about a fifth compared to a year ago, she is selling a third less than she would in a normal holiday
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more... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-for-lunar-new-year-highlights-deflation-woes

 

[sharon sanders]

Average pork wholesale price rises before holiday


February 05, 2024 09:27 Source: Guangzhou Daily

　　Short-term supply and demand are favorable, spot prices are relatively high
　　Average pork wholesale price rises before holiday
　　According to the market operation monitoring system of the Ministry of Commerce, consumption demand in the pork market has increased recently. From January 22 to 28, the retail price of pork in 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country increased by 0.3% month-on-month. Pork prices rose the most in the eastern region, with Jinan, Xiamen and Qingdao rising by 3.6%, 3.1% and 1.5% respectively. Analysts believe that both supply and demand of pork will shrink in 2024, but the decline in supply may be greater than the decline in demand. It is expected that the price of white pork will increase year-on-year in 2024, and the profitability of upstream and downstream companies may improve to some extent.

　　The market begins stocking up for the Spring Festival as short-term demand picks up

　　According to the monitoring of the national pig big data center, on January 31, 2024, the price of three-yuan pigs in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) increased by 30%, fell by 0%, and showed an upward trend.
　　Industry leaders have also noticed this trend. On the evening of January 30, Muyuan held a telephone exchange conference. Qin Jun, secretary of the board of directors of Muyuan Co., Ltd., said that the company has noticed that the price of commercial pigs has recovered significantly. The price recovery has regional characteristics. Among them, the price of pigs in the region centered on Henan Province has increased significantly. "It is now in the peak season before the Spring Festival, and sales are at the same price. Looking at the whole year of 2024, it is a little more optimistic than 2023."

​more... zhttps://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2024/02-05/10159224.shtml