Source:
https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2020-01-26/doc-iihnzhha4690997.shtml
Translated:
Members of the Zhejiang Provincial Expert Group: The number of people infected by the epidemic will continue to increase, and it may gradually decline after at least one month
Ebara Title: How will the epidemic develop next? Provincial expert group members: still in the initial stage, the number of infections will gradually increase, and it may decline slowly after at least one month
Source: Hangzhou News
Yesterday, the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine notified the hospital of pneumonia cases of new coronavirus infection. Currently, a total of 5 patients are being treated, and some of them have developed severe illness.
Is the new coronavirus getting stronger? What is the development trend of future epidemics? Yesterday, the reporter interviewed members of the high-level expert group of the National Health Commission, academician Li Lanjuan, a well-known infectious disease expert in China, and an authoritative expert at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine.
5 cases have been treated so far
Existing patients have developed severe
Professor Sheng Jifang, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, deputy director of the State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Diagnosis and Treatment, and member of the pneumonia expert group for the diagnosis and treatment of new coronavirus infection in Zhejiang Province Most of them are mild patients, of course, the condition may slowly develop.
"We have a vacant building dedicated to treating patients with new coronary pneumonia. Up to now, the number of confirmed cases in our hospital has been 5 cases. Others are suspected cases, the final diagnosis has not yet been made, and some are isolated observations. Confirmed diagnosis The patients are relatively stable. Some of them have developed into severe cases, and there are no critically ill patients at present. "
Professor Shengsheng Jifang said that most of the work we are currently doing is still a screening job, because many fever patients who come to the hospital are still a common cold or flu.
These diagnosed patients have been effectively isolated and treated, and we are testing their condition changes every day, including body temperature and oxygen saturation index. So far, these have been relatively stable, but the patient's temperature has been relatively constant. high.
The youngest death in Wuhan is only 36 years old
The new crown virus is getting stronger?
On January 24, the youngest case of death from new coronary pneumonia occurred in Hubei Province at the age of 36. As soon as the news came out, many citizens were worried. Does this mean that the new coronavirus has become stronger?
On this issue, Academician Li Lanjuan's view is that there is a process for the development of infectious diseases. From infection to development and recovery, every infected person has such a process. At present, the new coronavirus is a newly discovered virus, which is still under research and observation. Secondly, the virus is also constantly mutating, it may become more severe, or it may become lighter. Both of these may have both. We need to continue to observe the change of the virus. We cannot use a case to determine whether the virus is a change. Stronger or weaker.
Professor Huang Jianrong, deputy director of the Department of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, deputy director of the State Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Diagnosis and Treatment, and member of the Zhejiang Provincial Expert Group on Diagnosis and Treatment of New Coronavirus Infection, said: There are many reasons for this.
Clinically speaking, patients who do not seek treatment in time after the onset, have underlying diseases themselves, or have complications during the onset often have a poor prognosis after treatment. Due to the specific circumstances of this patient, I It's not clear, so it's hard to judge. However, from this case alone, it cannot be concluded that the new coronavirus has become stronger. "
After the peak period has passed, the epidemic situation will show a downward trend
But get through this peak period
Still needs a process
怎样
What's the future development trend of new crown virus?
士 Academician Li Lanjuan said that the state has taken measures and Wuhan has closed the city. Wuhan personnel who have been exported before have also adopted corresponding isolation measures. Once it was found that the person came back from Wuhan or had a history of contact with Wuhan, they took the quarantine method, found one case, isolated one case, and controlled the source of infection.
As for the future trend of disease development, Academician Li said: "After the peak period, the epidemic situation will gradually decline, but there is still a process to get through this peak period."
Professor Huang Jianrong believes that the number of infected people will gradually increase in the next period, and it may gradually decrease after at least one month. According to the epidemiological investigation, it is still in the initial stage of new coronary pneumonia, and the number of cases is still rising. It may only decline after 2-3 incubation periods. 14 days is an incubation period, that is, two incubation periods are around one month.
Compared with SARS
It's hard to say which is more contagious
But the current fatality rate
Lower than SARS and H7N9
These days, the new coronavirus circulating on the Internet is more infectious than SARS, but the mortality rate is relatively low. Is this correct?
In this regard, Academician Li Lanjuan said that it cannot be said that SARS is more contagious. Like SARS at that time, it was also very contagious. After one person was infected, dozens of people were infected.
"The new coronavirus is still a new virus, and we are still studying it, so it is difficult to compare who is more infectious now. But compared with the H7N9 avian influenza virus of the year, the new coronavirus is developing into a severe disease. In the future, its fatality rate will be lower than H7N9. "
Academician Li Lanjuan said that the severe incidence of H7N9 is higher than that of new coronary pneumonia. The severe incidence of H7N9 was in the early 40% to 50% fatality rate. Later, after rescue, the fatality rate was reduced to 10% More than a dozen, a significant decrease compared to the previous, but there is still such a high mortality rate.
However, this outbreak of new coronary virus infection has caused a lot of people, but the number of deaths is still relatively small. Of course, it is estimated that the number of critically ill patients will increase in the later stage, and the intensity of treatment needs to be strengthened. According to statistics, its mortality rate is lower than that of H7N9.
"Even in severe cases, our four-antibody-two-balance treatment plan is also useful for the treatment of this new type of coronavirus-infected severe pneumonia patients."
士
Academician Li Lanjuan said, our four-antibody-two-balanced diagnosis and treatment program in the fight against H7N9 avian influenza, for patients with antiviral therapy, antishock therapy, antihypoxemia and secondary infections. The two balances are to maintain the balance of water and electrolyte acid-base and microecological balance. This set of schemes and methods is still very effective in the treatment of severe patients with new coronavirus infection.
According to Professor Huang Jianrong, judging from the current situation, citizens need not be too panic. Pneumonia, SARS, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome infected by the new coronavirus are all caused by the coronavirus. In terms of lethality, SARS is about 10% and Middle East respiratory syndrome is about 33%. At present, the mortality rate of pneumonia caused by new coronavirus infection is only about 5%, which is far lower than that caused by other two coronaviruses.
Citizens should not be too panic
Just isolate the source of infection
The whole society is still safe
目前 "At present, we have isolated the patients with new coronary pneumonia that have been found, and the contacts are also doing medical observation. The whole society is still safe. Don't be nervous about this, and don't make everyone risk yourself."
士
Academician Li Lanjuan said that as long as there is no history of contact in Wuhan, not everyone will be infected. The key is to find out in time, find the source of infection, and isolate in time so that the epidemic can be controlled.
"In fact, the best way to control the epidemic is to control the source. At this point, the country has made a very wise decision-Wuhan closed the city. At present, many outbreaks in Hubei Province have also been dealt with accordingly, as far as possible Controlling patients to travel to other provinces has greatly reduced the spread of the virus. "
Professor Huang Jianrong suggested that for Hangzhou citizens, the most important thing is to minimize contact with people from Wuhan or those who have been to Wuhan. During the Spring Festival, you rarely go to public places. If you go out, you must wear a mask and wash your hands often. Also pay attention to maintain adequate sleep and improve immunity.
Professor Sheng Jifang said that even if they are really infected with the new crown pneumonia virus, people should not be too panic. The key is to go to the hospital for early treatment, early treatment, and to the hospital in time. If you are not infected, especially if you have no history of epidemics, for example, you have no history of exposure in Wuhan, nor do you have symptoms such as fever and cough.
Of course, if there is a history of epidemics or people from the endemic area, the most important thing is isolation. If you have a history of contact in Wuhan, don't hide it, you must tell the truth and automatically isolate it. Also, if you have symptoms and epidemiological history, you should come to the hospital in time, and you can effectively isolate and treat them after investigation.
Correspondent | Rui Wang
Editor-in-Chief: Zhao Ming
