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Livestock and poultry price change warning! On August 1, the rising price of pigs "collapsed", and the price of eggs stagnated at a high level! what's going on
2023-08-01 06:00ShandongCreators in the field of finance and economics, vitality creators
At the beginning of August, in the domestic livestock and poultry breeding system, the recent trend of live pigs and eggs has been remarkable. Among them, the price of eggs has risen more than expected. In July, the price of eggs in the production and sales market rose by as much as 26.5%, and the price of eggs in the retail market generally rose. In the "5 yuan era", however, after the egg price soared, the market receiving level weakened, and the egg price showed a trend of consolidation at a high level! In the live pig market, the price of pigs is "on a rocket", and the center of gravity has moved up significantly. In the short term, the price of pigs has risen more than expected, and the market's acceptance of high prices has also weakened significantly, and the price is under pressure to pull back! So, what happened to the market? Here comes the detailed analysis!
1. The rising price of pigs "collapsed", and the northern market fell back!
In the hog market, in the middle and late July, the price of hogs rose more than expected, and the market showed a trend of "jumping up". Compared with yesterday's increase of 0.19 yuan/kg, the market continued to surge upwards, but the upward trend gradually "collapsed", the northern market fell back in response, and the southern market continued to make up the trend of substantial growth!
At present, the average price of live pigs across the country is close to 16.45 yuan/kg in Guizhou. Among them, the price of pigs in Fujian has soared to 17.7 yuan/kg, and the price has risen to a stage high. In the Xinjiang market, the price quoted by slaughter companies fell to 15.35 yuan/kg, and the price fell to a new domestic low! In the traditional high and low provinces, at present, the quotation in the Heijiliao area has dropped to 16.1~16.3 yuan/kg, while in the high price area, the price in the Sichuan and Chongqing market has risen to 16.3~16.5 yuan/kg, the price in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market is 16.3~16.7 yuan, Guangdong and Guangxi The regional rush is 17.05~17.6 yuan/kg!
On August 1, the increase in pig prices weakened. In the northern region, the price of pigs fluctuated and fell, while the southern market continued to make up for the increase. The market center of gravity moved up again, but the upward trend gradually "collapsed"! At present, the market is intertwined with long and short, and the analysis is as follows:
Positive aspects: First, in the southern region, the supply of medium and large pigs is relatively small, and the price of large pigs is relatively strong, and the price difference between the standard fertilizers is obviously inverted. At the beginning of the month, the hog slaughter plan was limited, the pace of retail pig farm slaughter was average, and the market’s bullish sentiment still existed; the third and second fattening were hot, and the enthusiasm for short-term fattening of low-standard pigs in the north and south regions became stronger, which further caused slaughter It is difficult to source pigs from the farm to the factory;
Negative aspects: First, the production capacity of live pigs remains high, the domestic supply of low- and medium-standard pigs is generally loose, and the risk of breeding end pressure is relatively high. In some areas, the market has accelerated the pace of market rallies; The sentiment of increasing the price of white strips is heating up, the order volume of slaughterhouses has decreased significantly, the operating rate has dropped sharply, the sentiment of accepting pigs at high prices has weakened, and the sentiment of lowering prices has risen slightly!
Therefore, based on the long-short market intertwined, it is expected that after the sharp rise in pig prices, the market may enter a stage of high-level adjustment, and the market may have downward pressure. It is still in the stage of a strong trend, but this round of rising pig prices is bound to overdraw the room for a rebound in pig prices in the future!
Second, egg prices are high and stagflation!
In the domestic egg market, in the middle and late July, with the plum blossoms in the southern region, household consumption demand rebounded, the demand for replenishment in the downstream market was active, and food factories also had a certain demand for replenishment. Egg prices rose more than expected. The price soared by 4.75~4.84 yuan/catties. Among them, in the sales area market, the egg price rebounded by 1.01 yuan in July, an increase of 26.5%. However, due to weak supply pressure in production areas, egg prices are mainly stagnant at high levels, and prices have entered a stage of sideways consolidation!
According to institutional analysis, currently, in the domestic production and sales market, the price of eggs in the production area is 4.72 yuan/catties, and in the sales area market, the price of eggs is 4.74 yuan/catties. Buying and selling show a certain stalemate!
It is understood that due to the active replenishment of chicks at the rearing end after the year, the scale of new laying hens in China has gradually rebounded recently, but due to the rise in egg prices, the enthusiasm of farmers to eliminate old chickens has weakened, and the stock of laying hens has rebounded in a narrow range. Theoretical Supply Level Enhanced! However, due to the impact of the rest period, the egg production rate has dropped significantly, the egg production capacity in the market is lower than expected, and the pressure to sell goods in production areas is weak!
In terms of consumer demand, recently, due to the widespread precipitation in most parts of the Middle East in China, the purchase and sale of eggs has been sluggish. Maintain a high sideways trend! However, with the gradual recovery of egg circulation in the production areas, residents in the sales area have become more resistant to the rise in egg prices, and the market's efforts to receive goods have deteriorated. Egg prices are still under pressure to fluctuate and fall. Channels and wholesale markets will still maintain low inventory. The phenomenon of rising egg prices is weak!
Livestock and poultry price change warning! On August 1, the rising price of pigs "collapsed", and the price of eggs stagnated at a high level! what's going on! How do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!
zhttps://mbd.baidu.com/newspage/data/landingsuper?context=%7B%22nid%22%3A%22news_985566 4988970000505%22%7D&n_type=1&p_from=4
2023-08-01 06:00ShandongCreators in the field of finance and economics, vitality creators
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At the beginning of August, in the domestic livestock and poultry breeding system, the recent trend of live pigs and eggs has been remarkable. Among them, the price of eggs has risen more than expected. In July, the price of eggs in the production and sales market rose by as much as 26.5%, and the price of eggs in the retail market generally rose. In the "5 yuan era", however, after the egg price soared, the market receiving level weakened, and the egg price showed a trend of consolidation at a high level! In the live pig market, the price of pigs is "on a rocket", and the center of gravity has moved up significantly. In the short term, the price of pigs has risen more than expected, and the market's acceptance of high prices has also weakened significantly, and the price is under pressure to pull back! So, what happened to the market? Here comes the detailed analysis!
In the hog market, in the middle and late July, the price of hogs rose more than expected, and the market showed a trend of "jumping up". Compared with yesterday's increase of 0.19 yuan/kg, the market continued to surge upwards, but the upward trend gradually "collapsed", the northern market fell back in response, and the southern market continued to make up the trend of substantial growth!
At present, the average price of live pigs across the country is close to 16.45 yuan/kg in Guizhou. Among them, the price of pigs in Fujian has soared to 17.7 yuan/kg, and the price has risen to a stage high. In the Xinjiang market, the price quoted by slaughter companies fell to 15.35 yuan/kg, and the price fell to a new domestic low! In the traditional high and low provinces, at present, the quotation in the Heijiliao area has dropped to 16.1~16.3 yuan/kg, while in the high price area, the price in the Sichuan and Chongqing market has risen to 16.3~16.5 yuan/kg, the price in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market is 16.3~16.7 yuan, Guangdong and Guangxi The regional rush is 17.05~17.6 yuan/kg!
On August 1, the increase in pig prices weakened. In the northern region, the price of pigs fluctuated and fell, while the southern market continued to make up for the increase. The market center of gravity moved up again, but the upward trend gradually "collapsed"! At present, the market is intertwined with long and short, and the analysis is as follows:
Positive aspects: First, in the southern region, the supply of medium and large pigs is relatively small, and the price of large pigs is relatively strong, and the price difference between the standard fertilizers is obviously inverted. At the beginning of the month, the hog slaughter plan was limited, the pace of retail pig farm slaughter was average, and the market’s bullish sentiment still existed; the third and second fattening were hot, and the enthusiasm for short-term fattening of low-standard pigs in the north and south regions became stronger, which further caused slaughter It is difficult to source pigs from the farm to the factory;
Negative aspects: First, the production capacity of live pigs remains high, the domestic supply of low- and medium-standard pigs is generally loose, and the risk of breeding end pressure is relatively high. In some areas, the market has accelerated the pace of market rallies; The sentiment of increasing the price of white strips is heating up, the order volume of slaughterhouses has decreased significantly, the operating rate has dropped sharply, the sentiment of accepting pigs at high prices has weakened, and the sentiment of lowering prices has risen slightly!
Therefore, based on the long-short market intertwined, it is expected that after the sharp rise in pig prices, the market may enter a stage of high-level adjustment, and the market may have downward pressure. It is still in the stage of a strong trend, but this round of rising pig prices is bound to overdraw the room for a rebound in pig prices in the future!
Second, egg prices are high and stagflation!
In the domestic egg market, in the middle and late July, with the plum blossoms in the southern region, household consumption demand rebounded, the demand for replenishment in the downstream market was active, and food factories also had a certain demand for replenishment. Egg prices rose more than expected. The price soared by 4.75~4.84 yuan/catties. Among them, in the sales area market, the egg price rebounded by 1.01 yuan in July, an increase of 26.5%. However, due to weak supply pressure in production areas, egg prices are mainly stagnant at high levels, and prices have entered a stage of sideways consolidation!
According to institutional analysis, currently, in the domestic production and sales market, the price of eggs in the production area is 4.72 yuan/catties, and in the sales area market, the price of eggs is 4.74 yuan/catties. Buying and selling show a certain stalemate!
It is understood that due to the active replenishment of chicks at the rearing end after the year, the scale of new laying hens in China has gradually rebounded recently, but due to the rise in egg prices, the enthusiasm of farmers to eliminate old chickens has weakened, and the stock of laying hens has rebounded in a narrow range. Theoretical Supply Level Enhanced! However, due to the impact of the rest period, the egg production rate has dropped significantly, the egg production capacity in the market is lower than expected, and the pressure to sell goods in production areas is weak!
In terms of consumer demand, recently, due to the widespread precipitation in most parts of the Middle East in China, the purchase and sale of eggs has been sluggish. Maintain a high sideways trend! However, with the gradual recovery of egg circulation in the production areas, residents in the sales area have become more resistant to the rise in egg prices, and the market's efforts to receive goods have deteriorated. Egg prices are still under pressure to fluctuate and fall. Channels and wholesale markets will still maintain low inventory. The phenomenon of rising egg prices is weak!
Livestock and poultry price change warning! On August 1, the rising price of pigs "collapsed", and the price of eggs stagnated at a high level! what's going on! How do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!
zhttps://mbd.baidu.com/newspage/data/landingsuper?context=%7B%22nid%22%3A%22news_985566 4988970000505%22%7D&n_type=1&p_from=4