Re: China - Longhu: high incidence of pneumonia in elderly and children - air conditioning, indoor and outdoor temperature main reasons for increase - Shantou, Guangdong province
Shortage of Hospital Beds,
but
No Shortage
of
Human Hosts
GeneWurx and other teams have
documented that emergent H7N9 genetics have developed on
contemporary divergent paths. By the many commonalities shown in this thread of the "
air conditioning July virus" and emergent / host-transition influenzas, we would have to be more than a bit uncurious to not investigate the potential for under-reporting or failed testing of H7N9 in China.
With a
>25% Case Fatality Rate emergence in progress, why are these widely varied medical spokespersons not disclosing facts? Why are we not seeing simple identifying phrases in these press releases:
- "13 cases are pH1N1."
- "8 Influenza B infections were found."
- "4 cases were unsubtypable."
Animal-Human Interface or Human-Human Interface
We see
very little evidence that Emergent H7N9 incubated / transitioned in chickens and then spread from chickens to humans, certainly not as a primary vector. Conclusions to that effect should be considered unmerited according to the standard tools of observational science.
Is the recommendation of increased "
animal-human interface" surveillance offered by
Taubenberger, Morens and Fauci already less than optimal? Are we facing a
human-human interface with multiple clades of Emergent H7N9 (mild, moderate & severe) or, perhaps, a human-mammal-human cycle at this point?
H7N9 Avian Influenza A Virus and the
Perpetual Challenge of Potential Human Pandemicity
Morens DM, Taubenberger JK, Fauci AS. 2013. H7N9 Avian Influenza A Virus and the Perpetual Challenge of Potential Human Pandemicity. mBio 4(4):e00445-13. doi:10.1128/mBio.00445-13.
Abstract
At the same time, the H7N9 epizootic provides an opportunity to learn more about the mammalian/human adaptational capabilities of avian influenza viruses and challenges us to integrate virologic and public health research and surveillance at the animal-human interface.
H7N9 influenza:
History of similar viruses gives cause for concern
Although avian influenza viruses have not caused widespread human transmission in 94 years of surveillance, there have been numerous instances of avian influenza spillover and H7N9 "might arguably be more likely than other avian viruses to become human-adapted," write the authors. (Quote from JKT, DMM, ASF Pandemicity paper)
