Treyfish
Moderator
November 14, 2009
Danger is approaching.
Department of Microbiology, University of Hong Kong, Professor Guan Yi as the SARS pathogen was first discovered one of the academics, have fully proved their academic status. His most immediate concern is the new flow and avian influenza virus A (H5N1) in the future whether a particular day which genetic mixing, and then variations.
At present, the new A flow has swept the globe, but in more than 20 countries, the avian flu virus, the long-term dwelling. Guan Yi said, "If the two gene mixing occurs, it will be a huge disaster."
The academic community recognized the new A strong flow of communication, but still easy-to-treatment; and the avian flu to birds as the main residential body, less common cases of bird to human transmission, and interpersonal communication or not, has not yet been confirmed, but in the world have In some cases, nearly 60% of the patients died.
"Both the formation of a new virus, most likely both the high mortality rate and the spread of power." Guan Yi pointed out that although this is a small probability event, but with a flow of a pandemic, the human body can easily become the new virus, "assembly workshop. "
Another danger is growing.
Prior to Canada, the United States, Argentina and other countries have reported cases of pigs infected with a stream, according to the report of the WHO network, pigs infected with avian flu cases have occurred in the Asian region. "Avian influenza is not so pig disease, which makes hiding the pig is likely to be a flow of the virus will mutate to another place." Guan Yi said.
In this connection, a long newspaper interview with the World Health Organization (WTO) Guan Yi, a networking session to introduce the possibility of virus mutation path, and past history of influenza-related experience.
Chinese officials the possibility of virus mutation also hold a high degree of vigilance, the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Health and CDC since last week on China's domestic animal infected with a stream of detection has an initial conclusion: so far no cases found to be infected, further expansion of Monitoring ongoing.
FENG Zi-jian, director of CDC Emergency Response Office of the State in an exclusive interview to the concerns Guan Yi responded and introduced the mutation of existing mechanisms for tracking the virus, and measures. He said, "closely monitor the virus mutation trend is the next phase of disease control system, the most important work."
"Variant" possibility
"21st Century": A stream of new viruses which may be related to influenza viruses which genetic mixing? How to measure their own risk?
Guan Yi: A flow in this new type of influenza virus before the outbreak of the prevalence of influenza in the world in 1977 old H1N1 virus and H3N2 virus-based, that is, the current seasonal influenza. Health reorganization is possible, but after the reorganization of toxicity will not be too much more than H3N2, which re-appeared many times in history, nothing to fear.
Now, the "specialty" is that another influenza virus subtype H5N1, also known as "bird flu" ( "bird flu" virus included H9N2, H7N7, etc.), more than 20 countries around the world the long-term存在. Observational records from an existing view, although its fatality rate is nearly 60%, but in itself is difficult to pass from birds to people, from a very low risk of human transmission.
However, due to the new A stream of the number of infections are too many people can not be excluded will also get the avian flu and the new A stream, so that the virus may be to artificial "workshop" in the hybrid gene, again in the crowd to form a new virus can be spread .
As the number of cases of avian influenza H5N1 is not much less such a possibility, but can not be completely ruled out. We must remind the whole world, there may be Genghen virus at the back.
Restructuring the occasion is also likely to occur in pigs. A pig is now spread to the already detected many, the Americas, many European countries have had. I have dedicated access to the WHO's records, pigs infected with H5N1 bird flu case detected in Hanoi, Vietnam, some people have been to, and the pigs are not symptoms of the disease, if the case of a stream, more easily hidden state began to cross.
A consequence of current spread equally in both directions, probably end of next year or after the beginning of turning into a general seasonal influenza, lethal than it is now much smaller. Another possibility is the emergence of new viruses. Therefore, virus detection must be strengthened to avoid the discovery of new virus caught off guard.
"21st Century": A stream has not yet detected the virus, "mutation", from the current data shows that the "mutation" can predict the occurrence period of time?
Guan Yi: "variation" There are two cases. One is the spread of the virus to escape antibody, in the gene sequence occurred there, "point mutation", a variation in the beginning of an influenza pandemic, the medium-term the likelihood of not much less due to human antibodies, the virus spread easily go on to survive , there is no variation of the pressure, now still in this "window period."
Global Influenza Surveillance Network conclusion of a long-term follow-up study show that the new virus has circulated for a year to a year and a half, a significant increase in infection after the virus may begin to mutate in order to evade the body's immunity.
Such a change is not dramatic, just as production of seasonal flu vaccine every year, we always have to carry out replacement of their original vaccine strains is to deal with this mutation.
There is also a "variant" is with the other influenza viruses, particularly influenza A viruses of other subtypes hybridization, genetic recombination occurs. For example, I have played, and now a stream of new viruses, like the assembly out of a car, in the 1908 flu pandemic through the "H1", to the flu pandemic of 1979 took "N1", the formation of this now The new virus, and the ability to reproduce very effectively.
This reorganization is a chance occurrence, but a flow of more widely spread, more opportunities to encounter other viruses occur would clearly increase the risk.
How to strengthen the "tracking"?
"21st Century": In view of possible "variations", how to ensure that the existing influenza surveillance efforts to identify and analyze research? The new problem is the spread of humans and animals should have a new deal?
FENG Zi-jian: We have noted the recent public and media on the "variability" special concern, but do not have an anomalous situation. October has been an increase in severe cases, in fact, or a result of increased number of cases.
"Variant or not" is not based on the will of the people, the most important is to strengthen surveillance, early detection, rapid response. Now to track and judge the virus is mutating and is mainly in two ways.
The first analysis of the clinical severity of the disease. Serious and deaths mainly accounted for the proportion of the total number of cases, there is an obvious change. If the fatality rate increased, it shows a variation of the virus may occur.
2 is a network laboratory specimens collected from patients for genetic sequence analysis to detect the major influenza virus gene "locus" is changed.
National network of laboratories in order to present the human, although can not do all the specimens were detected, but the focus and death in severe cases of the collection is highly valued. Obtained from clinical specimens, sent to a laboratory, and then the analysis of level-reporting procedures and operating standards are very detailed. Focus of the next phase of the disease control is to continue to strengthen the monitoring and transmission of the virus of investigation.
"21st Century": how to ensure a high degree of concern about the epidemic of the A stream, it will not ignore the other influenza such as avian flu outbreak? Whether there will be all patients are assumed to be a stream of patients with the situation?
Guan Yi: This weeks the mainland does not bird flu cases reported in the past month, there will always be a few.
Disease control department needs to assume that "variant" will appear, can not take their luck. Virus samples must be right to conduct a comprehensive inspection. Surveillance of other infectious diseases can not be relaxed.
WHO should strengthen the existing global influenza network. Like the new A spread to pigs, but also Canada's first test, and later through the WHO network of conference call two scientists in the country more than 100 countries around the world, scientists report, This so that everyone began to search pigs.
FENG Zi-jian: Avian flu does, also went to the winter peak period, discovered in China in January this year, 8 cases, recent cases have not yet detected.
We have made special arrangements in respect of other infectious diseases. Although the A flow is the moment the main problem to devote relatively large work force, but other diseases, especially bird flu, and no relaxation of detection.
Confirmed influenza technical guidance is very clear. We request that a case of samples sent to the network of laboratories, use the generic detection of influenza reagents, gradually sub-samples where the virus type, in the end to determine what kind of influenza viruses. A stream is not only a new detection reagent.
If you do not come out at the local laboratory testing, requiring the fastest time in the original specimens sent to the National Influenza Center for testing, the aircraft will use aircraft, trains will use the train. This is the National Laboratory for more than 400 network monitoring requirements
:tiphat:http://news.ifeng.com/world/special/zhuliugan/zuixinbaodao/200911/1114_6347_1435111.shtml
Danger is approaching.
Department of Microbiology, University of Hong Kong, Professor Guan Yi as the SARS pathogen was first discovered one of the academics, have fully proved their academic status. His most immediate concern is the new flow and avian influenza virus A (H5N1) in the future whether a particular day which genetic mixing, and then variations.
At present, the new A flow has swept the globe, but in more than 20 countries, the avian flu virus, the long-term dwelling. Guan Yi said, "If the two gene mixing occurs, it will be a huge disaster."
The academic community recognized the new A strong flow of communication, but still easy-to-treatment; and the avian flu to birds as the main residential body, less common cases of bird to human transmission, and interpersonal communication or not, has not yet been confirmed, but in the world have In some cases, nearly 60% of the patients died.
"Both the formation of a new virus, most likely both the high mortality rate and the spread of power." Guan Yi pointed out that although this is a small probability event, but with a flow of a pandemic, the human body can easily become the new virus, "assembly workshop. "
Another danger is growing.
Prior to Canada, the United States, Argentina and other countries have reported cases of pigs infected with a stream, according to the report of the WHO network, pigs infected with avian flu cases have occurred in the Asian region. "Avian influenza is not so pig disease, which makes hiding the pig is likely to be a flow of the virus will mutate to another place." Guan Yi said.
In this connection, a long newspaper interview with the World Health Organization (WTO) Guan Yi, a networking session to introduce the possibility of virus mutation path, and past history of influenza-related experience.
Chinese officials the possibility of virus mutation also hold a high degree of vigilance, the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Health and CDC since last week on China's domestic animal infected with a stream of detection has an initial conclusion: so far no cases found to be infected, further expansion of Monitoring ongoing.
FENG Zi-jian, director of CDC Emergency Response Office of the State in an exclusive interview to the concerns Guan Yi responded and introduced the mutation of existing mechanisms for tracking the virus, and measures. He said, "closely monitor the virus mutation trend is the next phase of disease control system, the most important work."
"Variant" possibility
"21st Century": A stream of new viruses which may be related to influenza viruses which genetic mixing? How to measure their own risk?
Guan Yi: A flow in this new type of influenza virus before the outbreak of the prevalence of influenza in the world in 1977 old H1N1 virus and H3N2 virus-based, that is, the current seasonal influenza. Health reorganization is possible, but after the reorganization of toxicity will not be too much more than H3N2, which re-appeared many times in history, nothing to fear.
Now, the "specialty" is that another influenza virus subtype H5N1, also known as "bird flu" ( "bird flu" virus included H9N2, H7N7, etc.), more than 20 countries around the world the long-term存在. Observational records from an existing view, although its fatality rate is nearly 60%, but in itself is difficult to pass from birds to people, from a very low risk of human transmission.
However, due to the new A stream of the number of infections are too many people can not be excluded will also get the avian flu and the new A stream, so that the virus may be to artificial "workshop" in the hybrid gene, again in the crowd to form a new virus can be spread .
As the number of cases of avian influenza H5N1 is not much less such a possibility, but can not be completely ruled out. We must remind the whole world, there may be Genghen virus at the back.
Restructuring the occasion is also likely to occur in pigs. A pig is now spread to the already detected many, the Americas, many European countries have had. I have dedicated access to the WHO's records, pigs infected with H5N1 bird flu case detected in Hanoi, Vietnam, some people have been to, and the pigs are not symptoms of the disease, if the case of a stream, more easily hidden state began to cross.
A consequence of current spread equally in both directions, probably end of next year or after the beginning of turning into a general seasonal influenza, lethal than it is now much smaller. Another possibility is the emergence of new viruses. Therefore, virus detection must be strengthened to avoid the discovery of new virus caught off guard.
"21st Century": A stream has not yet detected the virus, "mutation", from the current data shows that the "mutation" can predict the occurrence period of time?
Guan Yi: "variation" There are two cases. One is the spread of the virus to escape antibody, in the gene sequence occurred there, "point mutation", a variation in the beginning of an influenza pandemic, the medium-term the likelihood of not much less due to human antibodies, the virus spread easily go on to survive , there is no variation of the pressure, now still in this "window period."
Global Influenza Surveillance Network conclusion of a long-term follow-up study show that the new virus has circulated for a year to a year and a half, a significant increase in infection after the virus may begin to mutate in order to evade the body's immunity.
Such a change is not dramatic, just as production of seasonal flu vaccine every year, we always have to carry out replacement of their original vaccine strains is to deal with this mutation.
There is also a "variant" is with the other influenza viruses, particularly influenza A viruses of other subtypes hybridization, genetic recombination occurs. For example, I have played, and now a stream of new viruses, like the assembly out of a car, in the 1908 flu pandemic through the "H1", to the flu pandemic of 1979 took "N1", the formation of this now The new virus, and the ability to reproduce very effectively.
This reorganization is a chance occurrence, but a flow of more widely spread, more opportunities to encounter other viruses occur would clearly increase the risk.
How to strengthen the "tracking"?
"21st Century": In view of possible "variations", how to ensure that the existing influenza surveillance efforts to identify and analyze research? The new problem is the spread of humans and animals should have a new deal?
FENG Zi-jian: We have noted the recent public and media on the "variability" special concern, but do not have an anomalous situation. October has been an increase in severe cases, in fact, or a result of increased number of cases.
"Variant or not" is not based on the will of the people, the most important is to strengthen surveillance, early detection, rapid response. Now to track and judge the virus is mutating and is mainly in two ways.
The first analysis of the clinical severity of the disease. Serious and deaths mainly accounted for the proportion of the total number of cases, there is an obvious change. If the fatality rate increased, it shows a variation of the virus may occur.
2 is a network laboratory specimens collected from patients for genetic sequence analysis to detect the major influenza virus gene "locus" is changed.
National network of laboratories in order to present the human, although can not do all the specimens were detected, but the focus and death in severe cases of the collection is highly valued. Obtained from clinical specimens, sent to a laboratory, and then the analysis of level-reporting procedures and operating standards are very detailed. Focus of the next phase of the disease control is to continue to strengthen the monitoring and transmission of the virus of investigation.
"21st Century": how to ensure a high degree of concern about the epidemic of the A stream, it will not ignore the other influenza such as avian flu outbreak? Whether there will be all patients are assumed to be a stream of patients with the situation?
Guan Yi: This weeks the mainland does not bird flu cases reported in the past month, there will always be a few.
Disease control department needs to assume that "variant" will appear, can not take their luck. Virus samples must be right to conduct a comprehensive inspection. Surveillance of other infectious diseases can not be relaxed.
WHO should strengthen the existing global influenza network. Like the new A spread to pigs, but also Canada's first test, and later through the WHO network of conference call two scientists in the country more than 100 countries around the world, scientists report, This so that everyone began to search pigs.
FENG Zi-jian: Avian flu does, also went to the winter peak period, discovered in China in January this year, 8 cases, recent cases have not yet detected.
We have made special arrangements in respect of other infectious diseases. Although the A flow is the moment the main problem to devote relatively large work force, but other diseases, especially bird flu, and no relaxation of detection.
Confirmed influenza technical guidance is very clear. We request that a case of samples sent to the network of laboratories, use the generic detection of influenza reagents, gradually sub-samples where the virus type, in the end to determine what kind of influenza viruses. A stream is not only a new detection reagent.
If you do not come out at the local laboratory testing, requiring the fastest time in the original specimens sent to the National Influenza Center for testing, the aircraft will use aircraft, trains will use the train. This is the National Laboratory for more than 400 network monitoring requirements
:tiphat:http://news.ifeng.com/world/special/zhuliugan/zuixinbaodao/200911/1114_6347_1435111.shtml