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More than 20 countries have shot! Food ban "dominoes" spread to China, experts explain!
2022-06-02 07:02 World Wide Web
1,413
[Global Times reporter Ni Hao Global Times special correspondent Wu Qian in the United States] Editor's note: Wheat, corn, sunflower oil, rice, sugar... After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in the past three months, more than 20 countries and Regions have successively introduced export bans on agricultural products, and the "dominoes" of food bans have been overturned and spread to more countries and regions, making more and more countries and regions join the camp of food protectionism. In an interview with a Global Times reporter, a number of experts said that China is fully self-sufficient in basic food rations, and the current trend of food protectionism will not have a significant impact on China. However, as a major grain importer, the demand for broad grains such as soybeans, corn, and oilseeds requires China to further expand overseas import channels to avoid the risks brought by the turbulent international market.
who is the next
According to a report by India's "Economic Times" on May 31, a senior Thai industry official said on Monday that it was "impossible" to reach an agreement between Thailand and Vietnam to increase the price of rice. Three days ago, a Thai government spokesman just confirmed that Thailand and Vietnam plan to jointly raise rice prices. Jukyat, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said that Thailand and Vietnam are not the largest rice exporters, and they are less than India together. If prices are raised, they are worried that buyers will turn to competitors. It is reported that India, the largest rice exporter, accounts for about 40% of the global supply. Due to the weak Indian rupee and sufficient supply from major exporting countries, its price has hit a five-year low in recent days, and the media has repeatedly reported that the Indian government may tighten the price of rice. Export.
Rice is the latest domino to fall in the "domino" of the global grain export ban. According to public reports, India has banned the export of wheat and Indonesia has banned the export of palm oil. According to incomplete statistics, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, more than 20 countries and regions issued export bans on agricultural products.
Wang Zuli, an associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said in an interview with a Global Times reporter that, at least in the short term, the "dominoes" of food protectionism have been toppled in some countries and regions. He believes that since the outbreak of the epidemic, especially since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with the sharp rise in global food prices, a series of uncertain factors have almost formed a panic about food security, which has spread among countries.
When will the food crisis end?
Many countries have issued food export bans. Is there enough food in the world? Many experts interviewed by a reporter from the Global Times said that the global food supply and demand are basically in balance.
"With the advancement of science and technology, the global food production capacity has exceeded the population growth rate. If it is limited to eating, global food security will tend to improve." Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times reporter In the interview, he said that the biggest threat to global food security is the problem of distribution. Some countries have obvious surpluses, and some countries have shortages due to purchasing power problems. This is a long-term food pattern facing the world. In fact, there have been three food crises around the world since the beginning of this century due to natural disasters superimposed on geopolitical conflicts.
Zheng Fengtian, deputy dean of the School of Agriculture and Rural Development at Renmin University of China, told the Global Times that during the 2005-2008 global food crisis, major grain-producing countries implemented trade protectionism for food exports, such as India banning wheat exports and Vietnam reducing rice exports ; When the global food crisis broke out again in 2010-2012, Russia banned the export of wheat and other grains, and some Black Sea coastal countries such as Ukraine also implemented export quotas for grain exports.
Li Guoxiang said that from 2012 to 2020, the world's grain has entered a period of surplus, which will continue until the end of 2020. Since then, the world grain has entered a new cycle of price increases due to a series of factors. Li Guoxiang said, "The international community generally believes that this round of grain rising cycle will end in June this year, but due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the impact of the epidemic, this cycle is still in progress, and it is hard to say when it will end."
Who holds the pricing power and the right to speak?
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's grain output has remained stable at more than 1.3 trillion catties for seven consecutive years, fully capable of ensuring the food security of 1.4 billion people. However, in addition to rations, China still needs to import soybeans, corn, oilseeds and other generalized grains. According to China Customs data, China's corn imports in 2021 will reach 28.35 million tons, a record high, and the foreign dependence will be close to 10%. Soybean imports reached 96.518 million tons, domestic soybeans were only 16.4 million tons, and the import dependence was 85.5%.
At present, China imports corn mainly from the United States and Ukraine, imports of rapeseed mainly from Canada, and imports of palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia. Soybeans mainly come from the United States, Brazil, Argentina and other countries.
"Food security depends on supply, and supply is mainly determined by production, inventory and import," Li Guoxiang said in an interview with the Global Times reporter that grain import is also a necessary means to ensure food security. The manifestation of food insecurity is wrong.”
At present, China is further promoting the diversification of grain imports. According to Bloomberg News, Chinese grain traders have begun to import corn from Brazil, which may reach 250,000 to 400,000 tons. Liu Dong, a corn analyst at the Agricultural Products Division of Shanghai Ganglian, told the Global Times that 70% of China's corn imports are imported from the United States, and the risk of relying on a single market is relatively high. From the perspective of food security, based on domestic supply and demand, we will further expand imports Channels will make China more calm in dealing with changes in the supply and demand environment of the corn market in the future.
In addition, on February 18, the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement to allow the import of Myanmar corn that meets the relevant requirements. On February 23, China began to allow wheat imports from the entire territory of Russia. In addition, according to information from Canada, China has recently lifted the three-year canola import restriction imposed on Canada.
Zheng Fengtian told the Global Times reporter that although there is no problem with China's food ration security, the sharp rise and fall of international food prices will still have an adverse impact on China's food security. Due to the high monopoly of global grain trade, the tying of US dollar capital and the pricing power of the Chicago commodity market in the United States, the United States and other western countries dominate the global grain market. He believes that China is still exploring the right to speak in the global grain market, encouraging and supporting domestic grain enterprises to go global, carry out international cooperation in grain warehousing, logistics, processing, and trade, and establish Dalian and Zhengzhou commodity exchanges in China. As an emerging food trade country, it is still a long way to establish a considerable voice in the international arena.
zhttps://news.sina.com.cn/w/2022-06-02/doc-imizmscu4673888.shtml#/
2022-06-02 07:02 World Wide Web
1,413
[Global Times reporter Ni Hao Global Times special correspondent Wu Qian in the United States] Editor's note: Wheat, corn, sunflower oil, rice, sugar... After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in the past three months, more than 20 countries and Regions have successively introduced export bans on agricultural products, and the "dominoes" of food bans have been overturned and spread to more countries and regions, making more and more countries and regions join the camp of food protectionism. In an interview with a Global Times reporter, a number of experts said that China is fully self-sufficient in basic food rations, and the current trend of food protectionism will not have a significant impact on China. However, as a major grain importer, the demand for broad grains such as soybeans, corn, and oilseeds requires China to further expand overseas import channels to avoid the risks brought by the turbulent international market.
who is the next
According to a report by India's "Economic Times" on May 31, a senior Thai industry official said on Monday that it was "impossible" to reach an agreement between Thailand and Vietnam to increase the price of rice. Three days ago, a Thai government spokesman just confirmed that Thailand and Vietnam plan to jointly raise rice prices. Jukyat, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said that Thailand and Vietnam are not the largest rice exporters, and they are less than India together. If prices are raised, they are worried that buyers will turn to competitors. It is reported that India, the largest rice exporter, accounts for about 40% of the global supply. Due to the weak Indian rupee and sufficient supply from major exporting countries, its price has hit a five-year low in recent days, and the media has repeatedly reported that the Indian government may tighten the price of rice. Export.
Rice is the latest domino to fall in the "domino" of the global grain export ban. According to public reports, India has banned the export of wheat and Indonesia has banned the export of palm oil. According to incomplete statistics, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, more than 20 countries and regions issued export bans on agricultural products.
Wang Zuli, an associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said in an interview with a Global Times reporter that, at least in the short term, the "dominoes" of food protectionism have been toppled in some countries and regions. He believes that since the outbreak of the epidemic, especially since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with the sharp rise in global food prices, a series of uncertain factors have almost formed a panic about food security, which has spread among countries.
When will the food crisis end?
Many countries have issued food export bans. Is there enough food in the world? Many experts interviewed by a reporter from the Global Times said that the global food supply and demand are basically in balance.
"With the advancement of science and technology, the global food production capacity has exceeded the population growth rate. If it is limited to eating, global food security will tend to improve." Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times reporter In the interview, he said that the biggest threat to global food security is the problem of distribution. Some countries have obvious surpluses, and some countries have shortages due to purchasing power problems. This is a long-term food pattern facing the world. In fact, there have been three food crises around the world since the beginning of this century due to natural disasters superimposed on geopolitical conflicts.
Zheng Fengtian, deputy dean of the School of Agriculture and Rural Development at Renmin University of China, told the Global Times that during the 2005-2008 global food crisis, major grain-producing countries implemented trade protectionism for food exports, such as India banning wheat exports and Vietnam reducing rice exports ; When the global food crisis broke out again in 2010-2012, Russia banned the export of wheat and other grains, and some Black Sea coastal countries such as Ukraine also implemented export quotas for grain exports.
Li Guoxiang said that from 2012 to 2020, the world's grain has entered a period of surplus, which will continue until the end of 2020. Since then, the world grain has entered a new cycle of price increases due to a series of factors. Li Guoxiang said, "The international community generally believes that this round of grain rising cycle will end in June this year, but due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the impact of the epidemic, this cycle is still in progress, and it is hard to say when it will end."
Who holds the pricing power and the right to speak?
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's grain output has remained stable at more than 1.3 trillion catties for seven consecutive years, fully capable of ensuring the food security of 1.4 billion people. However, in addition to rations, China still needs to import soybeans, corn, oilseeds and other generalized grains. According to China Customs data, China's corn imports in 2021 will reach 28.35 million tons, a record high, and the foreign dependence will be close to 10%. Soybean imports reached 96.518 million tons, domestic soybeans were only 16.4 million tons, and the import dependence was 85.5%.
At present, China imports corn mainly from the United States and Ukraine, imports of rapeseed mainly from Canada, and imports of palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia. Soybeans mainly come from the United States, Brazil, Argentina and other countries.
"Food security depends on supply, and supply is mainly determined by production, inventory and import," Li Guoxiang said in an interview with the Global Times reporter that grain import is also a necessary means to ensure food security. The manifestation of food insecurity is wrong.”
At present, China is further promoting the diversification of grain imports. According to Bloomberg News, Chinese grain traders have begun to import corn from Brazil, which may reach 250,000 to 400,000 tons. Liu Dong, a corn analyst at the Agricultural Products Division of Shanghai Ganglian, told the Global Times that 70% of China's corn imports are imported from the United States, and the risk of relying on a single market is relatively high. From the perspective of food security, based on domestic supply and demand, we will further expand imports Channels will make China more calm in dealing with changes in the supply and demand environment of the corn market in the future.
In addition, on February 18, the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement to allow the import of Myanmar corn that meets the relevant requirements. On February 23, China began to allow wheat imports from the entire territory of Russia. In addition, according to information from Canada, China has recently lifted the three-year canola import restriction imposed on Canada.
Zheng Fengtian told the Global Times reporter that although there is no problem with China's food ration security, the sharp rise and fall of international food prices will still have an adverse impact on China's food security. Due to the high monopoly of global grain trade, the tying of US dollar capital and the pricing power of the Chicago commodity market in the United States, the United States and other western countries dominate the global grain market. He believes that China is still exploring the right to speak in the global grain market, encouraging and supporting domestic grain enterprises to go global, carry out international cooperation in grain warehousing, logistics, processing, and trade, and establish Dalian and Zhengzhou commodity exchanges in China. As an emerging food trade country, it is still a long way to establish a considerable voice in the international arena.
zhttps://news.sina.com.cn/w/2022-06-02/doc-imizmscu4673888.shtml#/