sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Egg supply pressure has not been fully released, and the market may continue to fluctuate widely within a range.
2026-01-15 14:00:51
On January 15th, the main egg futures contract experienced a rapid surge during trading, reaching a high of 3085.00 yuan. As of press time, the main egg futures contract was trading at 3067.00 yuan, up 2.27%.
Egg futures contracts rose by more than 2%. What is the outlook for the market, and how should relevant institutions evaluate it?
Hualian Futures: Egg futures main contract may continue to fluctuate widely within a range
In the short term, the cost of egg production and the reluctance to sell among farmers are providing bottom support for egg prices. Market trading is improving, inventories at all stages are being digested, and the spot market is recovering. Previous egg price movements have fallen short of expectations, coupled with continued industry losses, accelerated culling of older hens, and insufficient restocking activity. The number of laying hens in production and new egg production may continue to decline. However, the medium-term egg supply pressure has not eased, and the main contract may continue to fluctuate widely within a range, with resistance levels around 3100-3150. In terms of options , a small position in call options for the longer-term contract can be considered .
CCB Futures: Egg futures contracts for near-month contracts fluctuated at low levels with a slight upward bias.
In the futures market, near-month contracts fluctuated at low levels with a slight upward bias this week, while far-month contracts experienced a certain decline. The stronger performance of near-month contracts is relatively easy to understand, mainly driven by spot market demand. The decline in far-month contracts is due to the earlier expectation of a turning point in egg inventory, which has been somewhat shaken by the current rise in egg prices, leading to a slight pullback. Looking ahead, the February and March contracts are absolute off-season contracts, and the focus for the foreseeable future will primarily be on widening the basis. Unless the intensity and duration of this round of price increases across production and sales regions exceed expectations, the February and March contracts are likely to continue fluctuating within a low range. Far-month contracts do indeed have the bullish factor of a turning point in egg inventory; attention should be paid to restocking. If the continued rise in egg prices weakens the valuation of far-month contracts, long positions in peak season contracts such as the May contract can be considered, with a rolling operation strategy.
Greenland Futures: Egg prices are expected to rise further in the short term.
In the short term, the national egg price increase trend continues, and further price increases are expected. Currently, egg prices remain within the range of feed cost to breeding cost; attention should be paid to downstream consumption strength and changes in inventory levels. However, the supply-demand imbalance in February may still pressure egg prices down to near feed cost levels again. In the medium term, the decline in the age of culled hens is insufficient to confirm over-culling, and chick restocking continues to increase month-on-month, indicating that egg supply pressure has not been fully released. Spot prices are expected to remain low, with a focus on the intensity and scale of culling driven by low prices. In the long term, the continued increase in the scale of egg-laying hen breeding may prolong the price bottoming period, significantly limiting the upside potential driven by culling in stages. Patience is needed to await the arrival of the over-culling-driven capacity reduction process at the breeding end.
zhttps://futures.cngold.org/jidan/c10287049.html
2026-01-15 14:00:51
On January 15th, the main egg futures contract experienced a rapid surge during trading, reaching a high of 3085.00 yuan. As of press time, the main egg futures contract was trading at 3067.00 yuan, up 2.27%.
Egg futures contracts rose by more than 2%. What is the outlook for the market, and how should relevant institutions evaluate it?
Hualian Futures: Egg futures main contract may continue to fluctuate widely within a range
In the short term, the cost of egg production and the reluctance to sell among farmers are providing bottom support for egg prices. Market trading is improving, inventories at all stages are being digested, and the spot market is recovering. Previous egg price movements have fallen short of expectations, coupled with continued industry losses, accelerated culling of older hens, and insufficient restocking activity. The number of laying hens in production and new egg production may continue to decline. However, the medium-term egg supply pressure has not eased, and the main contract may continue to fluctuate widely within a range, with resistance levels around 3100-3150. In terms of options , a small position in call options for the longer-term contract can be considered .
CCB Futures: Egg futures contracts for near-month contracts fluctuated at low levels with a slight upward bias.
In the futures market, near-month contracts fluctuated at low levels with a slight upward bias this week, while far-month contracts experienced a certain decline. The stronger performance of near-month contracts is relatively easy to understand, mainly driven by spot market demand. The decline in far-month contracts is due to the earlier expectation of a turning point in egg inventory, which has been somewhat shaken by the current rise in egg prices, leading to a slight pullback. Looking ahead, the February and March contracts are absolute off-season contracts, and the focus for the foreseeable future will primarily be on widening the basis. Unless the intensity and duration of this round of price increases across production and sales regions exceed expectations, the February and March contracts are likely to continue fluctuating within a low range. Far-month contracts do indeed have the bullish factor of a turning point in egg inventory; attention should be paid to restocking. If the continued rise in egg prices weakens the valuation of far-month contracts, long positions in peak season contracts such as the May contract can be considered, with a rolling operation strategy.
Greenland Futures: Egg prices are expected to rise further in the short term.
In the short term, the national egg price increase trend continues, and further price increases are expected. Currently, egg prices remain within the range of feed cost to breeding cost; attention should be paid to downstream consumption strength and changes in inventory levels. However, the supply-demand imbalance in February may still pressure egg prices down to near feed cost levels again. In the medium term, the decline in the age of culled hens is insufficient to confirm over-culling, and chick restocking continues to increase month-on-month, indicating that egg supply pressure has not been fully released. Spot prices are expected to remain low, with a focus on the intensity and scale of culling driven by low prices. In the long term, the continued increase in the scale of egg-laying hen breeding may prolong the price bottoming period, significantly limiting the upside potential driven by culling in stages. Patience is needed to await the arrival of the over-culling-driven capacity reduction process at the breeding end.
zhttps://futures.cngold.org/jidan/c10287049.html