• FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
  • We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.

China - Controversy about the counting of COVID-19 cases

the decisive question is, whether they can contain it, whether the cases are declining.
To decide this they should on days (intervals) where they change the criteria give _both_ counts,
the old one and the new one. When did they start to include more cases than before
and how many approximately ?
Is the decline since Feb.05 real or not ?
 
Overnight 14’840 cases, including 13’332 clinically diagnosed cases were reported from Hubei. (Because they issued a new guidance on this since last Friday - the 5th one.)

But WHO is not counting the additional 13,332 cases. :banghead:


"This is the first time China has reported clinically diagnosed cases in addition to laboratory-confirmed cases.

For consistency, we report here only the number of laboratory-confirmed cases.

WHO has formally requested additional information on the clinically diagnosed cases, in particular when these have occurred in the course of the outbreak and whether suspect cases were reclassified as clinically diagnosed cases."


https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=9a7406a4_2
 
Last edited:
Continuing to track only confirmed cases as WHO is doing at least gives a consistent baseline for time series comparisons. While it would have been beneficial to have each contact tested beginning with the 41 cases in in Wuhan, that did not happen. Also, there have been questions about the accuracy of the testing protocols in China. We are in the midst of flu season and only using clinical definitions (without testing) can inflate the number of cases. How much trust can we put in the counts presented by China.

After all, there is a clear advantage to maximizing the number of infected cases for the Chinese, it automatically lowers the CFR.
 
CFR is not so important at the moment, the main issue is to stop it. And it's only temporary ... the death-lag had been estimated at 22 days.

> WHO has formally requested additional information on the #COVID19 clinically diagnosed cases, in particular when these
> have occurred in the course of the outbreak and whether suspect cases were reclassified as clinically diagnosed cases.

Feb.10-Feb.14, daily new cases, old method only
Hubei_old,2097,1638,1508,1728,1282
Wuhan_old,1552,1104,1072,1330,1001
H-W_old , 545,534, 436, 398, 281


everything is going down, except deaths because of the death-time-lag

-------------edit-------------
well, hospitalisations in Hubei are still going up, this also has changed a bit
with the new cases - they have different sorts of hospitals.
The correction-number was first given today

hospitalised in Hubei on that day , Feb10-Feb14
25087,26121,33693,36719,38107-including 8309 with the new diagnosis
 
hat tip Shiloh to the change

hat tip to a FluTracker for the translation


Apparently diagnostic criteria for Hubei province changed again. 3rd change in 12 days.

Link to 6th version:

http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/...nt_5480948.htm


from page 4 of the attached pdf at the link above


SUSPECTED CASE - either fulfills one of the criteria under epidemiology and 2 under clinical; or no epidemiological evidence but fulfills all 3 of clinical signs

1 EPIDEMIOLOGY up to 14 days before symptom onset, has
1) history of travel to Wuhan or other places with reported cases, or reside in such areas
2) contact with confirmed case, by RT-PCR
3) contact with patients with fever or respiratory symptoms from Wuhan and adjacent areas or other areas with confirmed cases
4) part of a cluster with other confirmed cases

2 CLINICAL SIGNS
1) fever and/or respiratory symptoms
2) radiological evidence of coronavirus infection
3) normal or low white cell counts in early stage of illness, with low lymphocytes

CONFIRMED CASE

suspected case, plus either RT-PCR or genome sequence confirmation.
 
I have followed China for 14 years and I would not believe one thing that they say unless it is supported by independent sources.
 
I am going to come to the support of China again. It has been disappointing, if not surprising, to watch the US MSM's disbelief in the Chinese numbers given that the US has been in an economic/sanctions and propaganda war with the Russia/China alliance for some time. I note each time the media wants to hold up countries which have handled their outbreak well they list S Korea and Singapore but not China. This is not a fair comparison as of the three China is in far the best position and got sucker-punched and bought time for the rest of us time to prepare, at great cost to themselves, which we squandered. Bruce Alyward's WHO team had free reign to look at the situation on the ground and at all the data and I have not heard a peep from any of them doubting the data. Korea got lucky in their first cases were is a small religious sect with a very young age distribution and excellent records of its membership which greatly reduced the case fatality rate and made contract tracing simple. Singapore is a small island, one of the richest countries in the world and probably has the world's best healthcare system. How anyone can believe that China is fudging its numbers to any significant extent defeats me. They openly reported their numbers climb to 4000/day and have now reopened most of the country to fairly normal levels of economic activity with the expected signs of increased transmission, by which I mean their daily cases have increased from 20 to 60, in a population the size of N America and Europe combined. It will be interesting to watch how they use the accelerator and breaks to keep numbers manageable. In contrast nearly all of the 18,000 new case in the graph below came from Europe and N America. If China had not controlled their outbreak they would be reporting 40,000 cases a day by now which is beyond any countries ability to hide.
If you want to look at countries who are fudging their number then the US, and my country the UK, would be good examples. I would argue that in both cases their governments failed to learn from China that controlling the outbreak by testing and contact tracing (per the WHO guidelines) first and worrying about the economic consequences afterwards is the way to go. An act of hubris led them to think their healthcare systems could handle things better and in the balance between their population's health, and economic health, things could be safely skewed a little more towards the economy. The consequence has been a slow ramp up of testing capacity and a laissez faire attitude towards contact tracing leading to a period of undocumented community spread and major under reporting. I expect the consequence of this mistake to become apparent in the next few weeks as both countries surpass Italy's disease burden - Italy at least moved faster and earlier.



The graph is from today's WHO sit-rep. (You need to mentally redistribute the 23th Feb spike across the days around it as it is an artefact of China's ramping up of testing being out stripped by the rate of epidemic growth from about the 4th of Feb.)
The dangers at present are India/Pakistan/Bangladesh and Africa. The Indian sub-continent contains more people than China but very poor healthcare for its population size. The African continent is the largest outside Asia, in population terms, again with poor facilities. I can not see how either can contain this without massive outside help, which is not going to be forthcoming. Expect them to follow an Italian trajectory without any breaking mechanism. A million cases a day from the sub continent with a CFR of near 10% would not surprise me as most would be lucky to see a doctor and will get absolutely zero treatment of any kind. All the main outbreaks, to date, are occurring in wealthy countries where very few have suffered entirely without support and many have never got to the ICU stage due to oxygen support early enough to blunt disease progression. We do not know yet what the CFR is for someone in a hut with poor nutrition while in the womb and throughout life, no medicine of any kind and quite possibly no one to even bring them food and water. I fear it will be a rude awakening for us all and the only slim hope is that once over the balance of what we spend preparing to fight each other and what we spend preparing to fight disease will be be re-assessed.
 

Attachments

  • sit rep.webp
    sit rep.webp
    27 KB · Views: 2
JJackson - you can believe China all you want but the fact remains that no disease outbreak has a curve like China's COVID-19 cumulative cases curve. It goes up and up and then abruptly stops the ascent and has a straight line. This is ridiculous. All disease outbreaks have a cumulative bell curve. You know this.

As to all other countries....well...all of them downplay their bad news. It is a matter of degrees.

And the main stream media? Forget it.

The fact is that the global elites don't give a **** about regular people. They play us every way they can by manipulating the governments, international organizations, and the media.
 
Sharon the cumulative case curve only ever goes up and up. The daily case curve will rise peak and fall exactly as it does in the graph of Chinese cases. Both are however misleading because the normal distribution curve we saw for 1918 or 2009 are a reflection of a disease reaching a natural R(0) of one or less due to acquired herd immunity post mitigation with no serious attempt at containment. For a disease with a natural R(0) of 2 half the population needs to be immune for it to fall to one by this means. China, if you believe the real number of cases to be a million, would have 1/1,400 or 0.0007% of its population immune if antibodies give complete immunity. For COVID herd immunity would require nearer a billion infection. No country has reached a point where herd immunity is playing any significant role. If the exponential growth is blunted, or reversed, it is due to social distancing and associated containment measure. Some of the comments I am seeing imply this will peak in a few months I would say 'you ain't seen nothing yet'.

The graph below shows the UK 2009 pandemic curve, the point to note is the numbers on the y axis, over a 100,000 cases at the peak for 50 million population. We are currently entering a shutdown mode (better late than never) with this being the last day of school for most. There are 30 data points over 7 months i.e. if yesterday's UK new case count was real it would need to be multiplied by 25 to match the graphs scale which would be ~17,000 which would put us at about the 1st of Jul on this epidemic curve. Even the drop from the high peak is only due to flu's extreme seasonality and there is no evidence to support this for COVID, just wishful thinking and hope. Increased UV will definitely help cut fomite transmission but other seasonal factors are an unknown.

 

Attachments

  • 2009.webp
    2009.webp
    30.8 KB · Views: 2
Sharon the cumulative case curve only ever goes up and up. The daily case curve will rise peak and fall exactly as it does in the graph of Chinese cases. Both are however misleading because the normal distribution curve we saw for 1918 or 2009 are a reflection of a disease reaching a natural R(0) of one or less due to acquired herd immunity post mitigation with no serious attempt at containment. For a disease with a natural R(0) of 2 half the population needs to be immune for it to fall to one by this means. China, if you believe the real number of cases to be a million, would have 1/1,400 or 0.0007% of its population immune if antibodies give complete immunity. For COVID herd immunity would require nearer a billion infection. No country has reached a point where herd immunity is playing any significant role. If the exponential growth is blunted, or reversed, it is due to social distancing and associated containment measure. Some of the comments I am seeing imply this will peak in a few months I would say 'you ain't seen nothing yet'.

The graph below shows the UK 2009 pandemic curve, the point to note is the numbers on the y axis, over a 100,000 cases at the peak for 50 million population. We are currently entering a shutdown mode (better late than never) with this being the last day of school for most. There are 30 data points over 7 months i.e. if yesterday's UK new case count was real it would need to be multiplied by 25 to match the graphs scale which would be ~17,000 which would put us at about the 1st of Jul on this epidemic curve. Even the drop from the high peak is only due to flu's extreme seasonality and there is no evidence to support this for COVID, just wishful thinking and hope. Increased UV will definitely help cut fomite transmission but other seasonal factors are an unknown.

filedata/fetch?id=839156&d=1584719893

I agree with your UK graph and this is exactly what we are not seeing in China despite their claim of no new cases. Their case growth simply stopped on a dime and flattened. Magic! No new growth anymore!

Maybe they have some vaccine to prevent COVID-19 that they should be telling the world about.



 

Attachments

  • chinagraph.webp
    chinagraph.webp
    49.1 KB · Views: 2
Sharon looking at the graph the point I would take from it is the individual case curves for China and Italy are identical they both went from negligible to 2000 cases in 14 days. The slight drop in China growth rate from the about the 10th to 20th is not real but due to limited testing and needs the mental massaging to smooth over the jump on the 13th. but the flattening to almost zero increase in daily case number I think is real and due to the draconian measures taken. I read this graph as showing it has taken about a month for China's measures to control the epidemic and expect Italy to follow a similar trajectory but will have to put up with another months growth as per China's curve first. Iran's numbers I would interpret as deviating due to insufficient testing in a badly damaged economy. The US and UK have the same growth curve but, for the reasons given above, it just is not showing up yet. Our public's are due for an unpleasant shock once they find out that they are actually about to become Italy but did not know it because their governments did not contact trace or test as rigorously.
Sharon feel free to come back in a month or two with an 'I told you so' because it should be more than clear by then which of us is closer to the truth.
For the rest of you Sharon and I are good friends and I am sure we will still be long after all of this is over. She has far more experience watching how China reports disease outbreaks in their area where I have only followed this outbreak in detail so I take her concerns very seriously I am just viewing the available data and interpreting it in light of standard epidemiological modelling.
 
Sharon looking at the graph the point I would take from it is the individual case curves for China and Italy are identical they both went from negligible to 2000 cases in 14 days. The slight drop in China growth rate from the about the 10th to 20th is not real but due to limited testing and needs the mental massaging to smooth over the jump on the 13th. but the flattening to almost zero increase in daily case number I think is real and due to the draconian measures taken. I read this graph as showing it has taken about a month for China's measures to control the epidemic and expect Italy to follow a similar trajectory but will have to put up with another months growth as per China's curve first. Iran's numbers I would interpret as deviating due to insufficient testing in a badly damaged economy. The US and UK have the same growth curve but, for the reasons given above, it just is not showing up yet. Our public's are due for an unpleasant shock once they find out that they are actually about to become Italy but did not know it because their governments did not contact trace or test as rigorously.
Sharon feel free to come back in a month or two with an 'I told you so' because it should be more than clear by then which of us is closer to the truth.
For the rest of you Sharon and I are good friends and I am sure we will still be long after all of this is over. She has far more experience watching how China reports disease outbreaks in their area where I have only followed this outbreak in detail so I take her concerns very seriously I am just viewing the available data and interpreting it in light of standard epidemiological modelling.

We will never know the truth about China. Ever.

Deaths we won't know for sure - because they cremated all the bodies. I bet the gov doesn't even know how many have died. Dead people were taken out of their homes and cremated with no COVID-19 test done even though they had the symptoms. Same for many in the hospitals pre-testing.

Compared to Italy the China death per case ratio looks like a bad joke.

China case official cumulative case count = 80,967
deaths = 3,268

Italian official cumulative case count = 41,035
deaths = 3,405

I rest my case.

I will not be engaging in this convo anymore.
 
China 'didn't report 43,000 silent carriers'

3 hours ago

A Hong Kong newspaper says China's government excluded from its statistics about one-third of people who tested positive for the new coronavirus but showed no symptoms.

The South China Morning Post reported on Monday that classified government data it obtained show that more than 43,000 so-called silent carriers were not counted in the number of confirmed cases by the end of February....The authorities also said they would not disclose the number of silent carriers in the country......:tiphat:https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200323_37/
 
Should China count recovered coronavirus patients who test positive again?
  • Hubei health official says the cases aren’t considered new but the people will be sent back to hospital for observation
  • Estimates vary but Guangdong says about 14 per cent of those discharged test positive again
Authorities in Hubei say they will not count patients who test positive again after discharge as fresh cases. Photo: Xinhua
Patients who test
positive for coronavirus
after being discharged from hospital will not be classified as fresh cases and there is no evidence that they remain infectious, according to a top health official in the central Chinese province where the pathogen was first detected.


Tu Yuanchao, deputy director of the health commission in Hubei province, said people who tested positive and showed coronavirus symptoms a second time would be sent to designated hospitals for treatment until they met discharge conditions again, the official Hubei Daily reported on Monday. They would then be observed for two weeks in isolation.

But they would not be counted as new cases, Tu was quoted as saying.

“Those who retest positive have already been reported as confirmed cases in their initial test, so they will not be repeatedly counted as new cases,” he said.....
...
Wang Xinhua, president of Guangzhou Medical University, said there were usually two reasons discharged patients tested positive again for coronavirus.

“One is because they were only carrying a small amount of virus when they were discharged. More tests will need to be conducted on such patients for accuracy,” Wang said.

“The other possible situation is that the patients get reinfected. It’s not clear if they have acquired a strong immunity after recovery. [Reinfection] is not a high possibility but it is still possible.”


Peng Zhiyong, director of intensive care at Wuhan University’s Zhongnan Hospital, said that only 1 per cent of patients fell into the category.

“It is extremely rare for patients to retest positive after they recover,” Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily quoted Peng as saying on March 14.

In another article on Sunday, People’s Daily reported that 5 to 10 per cent of cases in “certain isolation areas in Wuhan” tested positive again after being discharged. But it did not specify the total number or locations.

Apart from Hubei and Guangdong, similar cases have be...:tiphat:https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...ients-who-test
 
hat tip Gert van der Hoek




Yuan Yang

@YuanfenYang
?
9h
China's plummeting coronavirus case count looks v promising. But local medics tell us the numbers are too rosy: “the [authorities] are using all their means to control the new case count,” & the detected symptomatic cases are “the tip of the iceberg” -
@ft

Hidden infections challenge China’s claim coronavirus is under control
Official figures suggest a breakthrough but local medics reveal unreported cases
ft.com
61
896
1.1K
Show this thread
Yuan Yang

@YuanfenYang
?
8h
Replying to
@YuanfenYang
4/ I'm personally surprised that the National Health Commission won't just release the asymptomatic patient count, since this has been called for for over a month now, and it would not cost the NHC anything to do so.
5
23
57
Yuan Yang

@YuanfenYang
?
8h
5/ A silver lining: if there are indeed a large number of unreported asymptomatic carriers in Wuhan who have since recovered, that increases the chances that immunity has developed in the population to guard against a second wave.
7
20
80Yuan Yang Retweeted
 
posted with permission.

hat tip to Jason Gale


Stacks of Urns in Wuhan Prompt New Questions of Virus’s Toll
2020-03-27 05:06:05.974 GMT


By Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- The long lines and stacks of ash urns
greeting family members of the dead at funeral homes in Wuhan
are spurring questions about the true scale of coronavirus
casualties at the epicenter of the outbreak, renewing pressure
on a Chinese government struggling to control its containment
narrative.
The families of those who succumbed to the virus in the
central Chinese city, where the disease first emerged in
December, were allowed to pick up their cremated ashes at eight
local funeral homes starting this week. As they did, photos
circulated on Chinese social media of thousands of urns being
ferried in.
Outside one funeral home, trucks shipped in about 2,500
urns on both Wednesday and Thursday, according to Chinese media
outlet Caixin. Another picture published by Caixin showed 3,500
urns stacked on the ground inside. It’s unclear how many of the
urns had been filled.
People who answered the phone at six of the eight funeral
homes in Wuhan said they either did not have data on how many
urns were waiting to be collected, or were not authorized to
disclose the numbers. Calls were not answered at the other two.
Some families said they had been forced to wait for several
hours to pick up the ashes. The photos circulated as mass deaths
from the virus spiked in cities across the west, including
Milan, Madrid and New York, where hospitals were erecting tents
to handle the overflow as global infections soar past 500,000,
with 24,000 dead.
According to Chinese government figures, 2,535 people in
Wuhan have died of the virus. The announcement that a lockdown
in place since January would be lifted came after China said its
tally of new cases had hit zero and stepped up diplomatic
outreach to other countries hard hit by the virus, sending some
of them medical supplies.
But some in China have been skeptical of the accuracy of
the official tally, particularly given Wuhan’s overwhelmed
medical system, authorities’ attempts to cover up the outbreak
in its initial stages, and multiple revisions to the way
official cases are counted. Residents on social media have
demanded disciplinary action against top Wuhan officials.
China’s Hidden Symptom-Free Virus Cases Means Epidemic Not
Over
Many people who died had Covid-19 symptoms, but weren’t
tested and excluded from the official case tally, Caixin said.
There were also patients who died of other diseases due to a
lack of proper treatment when hospitals were overwhelmed dealing
with those who had the coronavirus.
There were 56,007 cremations in Wuhan in the fourth quarter
of 2019, according to data from the city’s civil affairs agency.
The number of cremations was 1,583 higher than those in the
fourth quarter of 2018 and 2,231 higher than the fourth quarter
of 2017.

Mourning Restrictions

The families of the deceased may not be able to say a
proper goodbye to their loved ones just yet. Wuhan’s government
issued a statement on Thursday prohibiting individuals in the
city from tomb-sweeping activities until April 30, meaning they
would not be able to observe the traditional April 4 Ching Ming
Festival, or tomb sweeping holiday. Other provinces including
Guangxi and Zhejiang have also announced similar restrictions.
Two locals in Wuhan who have lost family members to the
virus said online that they were informed they had to be
accompanied by their employers or officials from neighborhood
committees when picking up the urns, likely as a measure against
public gatherings.
“I was told by district government to wait until further
notice on when I can pick up my father’s ashes,” one Wuhan
resident using the name “Xue Zai Shou Zhong,” meaning “snow in
hand,” posted on Weibo. “There is a staggered arrangement for
urn collecting.”
Another Weibo user using the handle Adagier said she lost
her husband to the coronavirus and had since been contacted by
police warning her not to be too emotional -- and to stop
posting online.
“I have only one demand,” she wrote. “I want to give my
husband a proper burial as soon as possible.”

--With assistance from Dandan Li and Claire Che.
 
posted with permission.

hat tip to Jason Gale


Stacks of Urns in Wuhan Prompt New Questions of Virus’s Toll
2020-03-27 05:06:05.974 GMT


By Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- The long lines and stacks of ash urns
greeting family members of the dead at funeral homes in Wuhan
are spurring questions about the true scale of coronavirus
casualties at the epicenter of the outbreak, renewing pressure
on a Chinese government struggling to control its containment
narrative.
The families of those who succumbed to the virus in the
central Chinese city, where the disease first emerged in
December, were allowed to pick up their cremated ashes at eight
local funeral homes starting this week. As they did, photos
circulated on Chinese social media of thousands of urns being
ferried in.
Outside one funeral home, trucks shipped in about 2,500
urns on both Wednesday and Thursday, according to Chinese media
outlet Caixin. Another picture published by Caixin showed 3,500
urns stacked on the ground inside. It’s unclear how many of the
urns had been filled.
People who answered the phone at six of the eight funeral
homes in Wuhan said they either did not have data on how many
urns were waiting to be collected, or were not authorized to
disclose the numbers. Calls were not answered at the other two.
Some families said they had been forced to wait for several
hours to pick up the ashes. The photos circulated as mass deaths
from the virus spiked in cities across the west, including
Milan, Madrid and New York, where hospitals were erecting tents
to handle the overflow as global infections soar past 500,000,
with 24,000 dead.
According to Chinese government figures, 2,535 people in
Wuhan have died of the virus. The announcement that a lockdown
in place since January would be lifted came after China said its
tally of new cases had hit zero and stepped up diplomatic
outreach to other countries hard hit by the virus, sending some
of them medical supplies.
But some in China have been skeptical of the accuracy of
the official tally, particularly given Wuhan’s overwhelmed
medical system, authorities’ attempts to cover up the outbreak
in its initial stages, and multiple revisions to the way
official cases are counted. Residents on social media have
demanded disciplinary action against top Wuhan officials.
China’s Hidden Symptom-Free Virus Cases Means Epidemic Not
Over
Many people who died had Covid-19 symptoms, but weren’t
tested and excluded from the official case tally, Caixin said.
There were also patients who died of other diseases due to a
lack of proper treatment when hospitals were overwhelmed dealing
with those who had the coronavirus.
There were 56,007 cremations in Wuhan in the fourth quarter
of 2019, according to data from the city’s civil affairs agency.
The number of cremations was 1,583 higher than those in the
fourth quarter of 2018 and 2,231 higher than the fourth quarter
of 2017.

Mourning Restrictions

The families of the deceased may not be able to say a
proper goodbye to their loved ones just yet. Wuhan’s government
issued a statement on Thursday prohibiting individuals in the
city from tomb-sweeping activities until April 30, meaning they
would not be able to observe the traditional April 4 Ching Ming
Festival, or tomb sweeping holiday. Other provinces including
Guangxi and Zhejiang have also announced similar restrictions.
Two locals in Wuhan who have lost family members to the
virus said online that they were informed they had to be
accompanied by their employers or officials from neighborhood
committees when picking up the urns, likely as a measure against
public gatherings.
“I was told by district government to wait until further
notice on when I can pick up my father’s ashes,” one Wuhan
resident using the name “Xue Zai Shou Zhong,” meaning “snow in
hand,” posted on Weibo. “There is a staggered arrangement for
urn collecting.”
Another Weibo user using the handle Adagier said she lost
her husband to the coronavirus and had since been contacted by
police warning her not to be too emotional -- and to stop
posting online.
“I have only one demand,” she wrote. “I want to give my
husband a proper burial as soon as possible.”

--With assistance from Dandan Li and Claire Che.
 
Not exactly honest...follow the money people.....


Estimates Show Wuhan Death Toll Far Higher Than Official Figure

2020-03-27

snip

Another popular estimate is based on the cremation capacity of the funeral homes, which run a total of 84 furnaces with a capacity over 24 hours of 1,560 urns city-wide, assuming that one cremation takes one hour.

This calculation results in an estimated 46,800 deaths.

A resident of Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital, said most people there now believe that more than 40,000 people died in the city before and during the lockdown.


"Maybe the authorities are gradually releasing the real figures, intentionally or unintentionally, so that people will gradually come to accept the reality," the resident, who gave only his surname Mao, said.

more...

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/chi...020182846.html
 
Back
Top Bottom