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China - Controversy about the counting of COVID-19 cases

China reports asymptomatic cases -- nearly 150 -- for first time

APRIL 1, 2020 / 5:35 AM / UPDATED AT 3:05 PM

By
Darryl Coote & Danielle Haynes April 1 (UPI) -- China reported a surge in new COVID-19 infections on Wednesday after it included asymptomatic cases in its daily update for the first time.

Beijing's National Health Commission reported 36 confirmed infections of the novel coronavirus, 33 of which were imported, continuing a trend of more cases entering from outside the country than those transmitted locally.


However, the daily tally included 130 people who tested positive for COVID-19 without exhibiting any symptoms.

The move to include asymptomatic cases follows Premier Li Keqiang urging health officials on Saturday to pay close attention to patients without symptoms, who can spread the virus without detection.

On Tuesday, China's National Health Commission announced it had more than 1,500 asymptomatic patients under medical observation, and most of those cases were locally transmitted.

The combined 166 new cases China reported Wednesday is its highest increase since early last month.

Beijing said Wednesday it has recorded more than 81,500 confirmed cases since the pandemic began in December, although that number hadn't accounted for the asymptomatic cases. The commission also said two formerly asymptomatic patients were reclassified as confirmed cases after they began to exhibit symptoms....:tiphat:https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...728453/?mpst=2
 
Last edited:
asymptomatic infections have not been announced in the past. Once the decision is made, there are still some data and conditions that need to be clarified, so there is no cumulative number of asymptomatic infections nationwide, and nearly half of the provinces have not announced asymptomatic infections. ​
This situation shows that those who report asymptomatic infections still need to do more work and implement it quickly.​
http://opinion.china.com.cn/opinion_6_220406.html
 
Coronavirus study points to vast number of cases under the radar in China
  • Researchers in Hong Kong find that Covid-19 definitions make big differences to the pandemic’s bigger picture
  • Mainland China might have had four times as many infections as official total if broader criteria used, team says
Josephine Ma
Published: 7:00am, 23 Apr, 2020

China’s official tally of coronavirus cases could have quadrupled in mid-February if one broader system for classifying confirmed patients had been used from the outset of the pandemic, according to researchers at the University of Hong Kong.

In a study published in the medical journal The Lancet on Tuesday, the researchers said China might have had 232,000 confirmed cases – rather than the official total of about 55,000 – by February 20 if a revised definition adopted earlier in the month had been applied throughout.

“We estimated that there were at least 232,000 infections in the first epidemic wave of Covid-19 in mainland China,” they said, referring to the disease caused by the coronavirus.

“The true number of infections could still be higher than that currently estimated considering the possibility of under-detection of some infections, particularly those that were mild and asymptomatic, even under the broadest case definitions.”...:tiphat:https://www.scmp.com/print/news/chin...er-radar-china
 
Treyfish said:
Coronavirus study points to vast number of cases under the radar in China
  • Researchers in Hong Kong find that Covid-19 definitions make big differences to the pandemic’s bigger picture
  • Mainland China might have had four times as many infections as official total if broader criteria used, team says
Josephine Ma
Published: 7:00am, 23 Apr, 2020

China’s official tally of coronavirus cases could have quadrupled in mid-February if one broader system for classifying confirmed patients had been used from the outset of the pandemic, according to researchers at the University of Hong Kong.

In a study published in the medical journal The Lancet on Tuesday, the researchers said China might have had 232,000 confirmed cases – rather than the official total of about 55,000 – by February 20 if a revised definition adopted earlier in the month had been applied throughout.

“We estimated that there were at least 232,000 infections in the first epidemic wave of Covid-19 in mainland China,” they said, referring to the disease caused by the coronavirus.

“The true number of infections could still be higher than that currently estimated considering the possibility of under-detection of some infections, particularly those that were mild and asymptomatic, even under the broadest case definitions.”...:tiphat:https://www.scmp.com/print/news/chin...er-radar-china
Click to expand...

Here is the study link:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...089-X/fulltext
 
Coronvirus: Europe 'wary of confronting China over deaths'

By Gordon CoreraSecurity correspondent
  • 3 hours ago
  • China's real casualty figure is believed by some to be much higher than officials there say
China is continuing to under-report the true levels of deaths from Covid-19, national security officials in London and Washington believe.

But European officials are wary about directly challenging China over the figures, sources told the BBC. That concern also extends to confronting Beijing over an information campaign to improve its standing and distract from blame in the crisis.

China has denied allegations of a cover up, saying it has been transparent about its efforts to battle the virus.

On 17 April, officials in Wuhan, t
...:tiphat:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52404612
 
|Apr 23, 2020,12:12pm EDT
China’s Early Coronavirus Cases May Have Been Four Times Higher Than Official Tally, New Study Suggests


Marley Coyne
Forbes Staff

Updated Apr 23, 2020, 04:47pm EDT TOPLINE

China reported approximately 55,000 coronavirus cases at the height of the country’s first wave in late February, but, according to a new study by researchers at the University of Hong Kong, the actual toll may be closer to 232,000, a finding that furthers evidence that China underreported its caseload.

Between January 15, 2020, and March 3, 2020, China issued seven different benchmarks that defined a coronavirus case, a moving target found to have a “substantial effect” on early case numbers, according to the researchers.

Initially very narrow, each of the first four definitions increased the scope of people considered infected, and had the fifth definition been used from the outset, there would have been four times as many cases reported by February 20, 2020, the study estimates.

The researchers were unable to collect necessary data after February 20 and therefore could not examine the effects of the sixth and seventh versions on estimated case count.

The data comes as tension between the United States and China over the latter’s handling of the virus continues to escalate, with the U.S. casting skepticism over China’s official case numbers and the country’s handling of the crisis in its early stages, including communicating the risk to the rest of the world....:tiphat:https://www.forbes.com/sites/marleyc.../#413100d53a18
 
?????

I do not know the bias (if any) of this media.

A list with 640k cases - one on each line?


Leaked Chinese Virus Database Covers 230 Cities, 640,000 Updates

New information may offer insight into the honesty of China’s coronavirus numbers.

BY ISAAC STONE FISH, MARIA KROL SINCLAIR | MAY 12, 2020, 8:32 PM

snip

While not fully comprehensive, the data is incredibly rich: There are more than 640,000 updates of information, covering at least 230 cities—in other words, 640,000 rows purporting to show the number of cases in a specific location at the time the data was gathered. Each update includes the latitude, longitude, and “confirmed” number of cases at the location, for dates ranging from early February to late April.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/12...-number-cases/
 
Source: https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...ppression-of-true-COVID-19-data-in-China.aspx

Cremation numbers reveal possible suppression of true COVID-19 data in China
Dr. Liji Thomas, MDBy Dr. Liji Thomas, MDJun 8 2020

A potentially explosive new study published on the preprint server medRxiv* in June 2020 suggests that the official Chinese statistics on COVID-19 cases or mortality are neither reliable nor credible. If true, such unreliable data during a crucial period of the pandemic in February and March 2020 could have seriously skewed the response and preparation of the rest of the world and altered the future course of the viral pneumonic illness.

The ongoing pandemic of COVID-19 has taken hundreds of thousands of lives and sickened over 7 million people all over the world in just over five months. Originating in China's Wuhan city, it has rapidly and extensively spread to over 188 countries and territories...
 
Shiloh said:
Source: https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...ppression-of-true-COVID-19-data-in-China.aspx

Cremation numbers reveal possible suppression of true COVID-19 data in China
Dr. Liji Thomas, MDBy Dr. Liji Thomas, MDJun 8 2020

A potentially explosive new study published on the preprint server medRxiv* in June 2020 suggests that the official Chinese statistics on COVID-19 cases or mortality are neither reliable nor credible. If true, such unreliable data during a crucial period of the pandemic in February and March 2020 could have seriously skewed the response and preparation of the rest of the world and altered the future course of the viral pneumonic illness.

The ongoing pandemic of COVID-19 has taken hundreds of thousands of lives and sickened over 7 million people all over the world in just over five months. Originating in China's Wuhan city, it has rapidly and extensively spread to over 188 countries and territories...
Click to expand...

Cremation based estimates suggest significant under- and delayed reporting of COVID-19 epidemic data in Wuhan and China

View ORCID ProfileMai He, Li Li, Louis P Dehner, View ORCID ProfileLucia Dunn
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.28.20116012
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
Abstract


Background: Epidemiological data provide important information for decision making. COVID-19 statistics from China fall outside of recognized and accepted medical norms. As the epicenter of the COVID-19 initial outbreak, the epidemiological information from Wuhan affects the response and preparation of other parts of China and rest of the world. Here we estimated the incidence, death and starting time of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and China based on medical literature from China, official and non-official Chinese data sources. Methods: Data sources included literature on COVID-19 in China, official Chinese government figures, state-run and non state-run media reports. Our estimates are based on investigative media reports of crematory operations in Wuhan, which is considered as a common data end point to life. A range of estimates is presented by an exponential growth rate model from lockdown (Jan 23,2020) until the intervention started to show effects, which was estimated 14.5 days after lockdown. Results: For the cumulative infections and total deaths, under different assumptions of death rates (from 2.5% to 10%) and doubling time 6.4 days, the estimates projected on February 7, 2020 in Wuhan range from 305,000 to 1,272,000 for infections and from 6,811 to 7,223 for deaths - on the order of at least 10 times the official figures (13,603 and 545). The implied starting time of the outbreak is October 2019. Under the assumption of the official 3.14% death rate and doubling time of 2.54 days (which was derived based on Chinese official data), the infection cases reached 2.2 million on February 7. The estimates of cumulative deaths, based on both funeral urns distribution and continuous full capacity operation of cremation services up to March 23, 2020, give results around 36,000, more than 10 times of the official death toll of 2,524. Conclusions: Our study indicates a significant under-reporting in Chinese official data on the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan. The magnitude of discrepancy between our estimates based on cremation related data and Chinese official figures in early February, the critical time for response to the COVID-19 pandemic, suggests the need to reevaluate official statistics from China and consider all available and reasonable data sources for a better understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic.

...
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....28.20116012v2
 
Wuhan’s Covid-19 cases may have been 10 times higher: Study


About 4.4% of those tested were found to have specific antibodies that can fight off the pathogen that causes Covid-19, indicating they were infected sometime in the past, according to a serological survey of more than 34,000 people conducted in April by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • December 30, 2020, 07:29 IST
https://health.economictimes.indiat...-may-have-been-10-times-higher-study/80019474
 
Wuhan’s Covid-19 cases may have been 10 times higher: Study


About 4.4% of those tested were found to have specific antibodies that can fight off the pathogen that causes Covid-19, indicating they were infected sometime in the past, according to a serological survey of more than 34,000 people conducted in April by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • December 30, 2020, 07:29 IST
https://health.economictimes.indiat...-may-have-been-10-times-higher-study/80019474
 
Pathfinder said:
WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing – 21 December 2022

21 December 2022
...

Certainly, we are in a much better place with the pandemic than we were a year ago, when we were in the early stages of the Omicron wave, with rapidly increasing cases and deaths.

But since the peak at the end of January, the number of weekly reported COVID-19 deaths has dropped almost 90%.

However, there are still too many uncertainties and gaps for us to say the pandemic is over:

Gaps in surveillance, testing and sequencing mean we do not understand well enough how the virus is changing;

Gaps in vaccination mean that millions of people – especially health workers and older people – remain at high-risk of severe disease and death;

Gaps in treatment mean people are dying needlessly;

Gaps in health systems leave them unable to cope with surges in patients with COVID-19, flu and other diseases;

Gaps in our understanding of post-COVID-19 condition mean we do not understand how best to treat people suffering with the long-term consequences of infection;

And gaps in our understanding of how this pandemic began compromise our ability to prevent future pandemics.

We continue to call on China to share the data and conduct the studies we have requested, and which we continue to request.

As I have said many times before, all hypotheses about the origins of this pandemic remain on the table.

At the same time, WHO is very concerned over the evolving situation in China, with increasing reports of severe disease.

In order to make a comprehensive risk assessment of the situation on the ground, WHO needs more detailed information on disease severity, hospital admissions and requirements for ICU support.

WHO is supporting China to focus its efforts on vaccinating people at the highest risk across the country, and we continue to offer our support for clinical care and protecting its health system.

===

https://www.who.int/news-room/speech...-december-2022
Click to expand...

hat tip Michael Coston for the tip on the death reduction number today.



I do not know what the WHO is talking about!?!?

China REDUCED their death count by one today. How can China possibly have severe COVID-19 disease if only 8 deaths have been announced since December 1 (in a country with over 1.4 billion people)? Obviously something is amiss.

Here is the government report. My bolding:



The latest situation of the novel coronavirus pneumonia as of 24:00 on December 20

[FONT=微软雅黑][FONT=微软雅黑][/FONT][FONT=微软雅黑]
dys.jpg
[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=微软雅黑]Release time: 2022-12-21[/FONT]


[FONT=仿宋][FONT=仿宋]From 00:00 to 24:00 on December 20, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 3,101 new confirmed cases. Among them, 52 were imported cases (18 in Guangdong, 17 in Sichuan, 4 in Heilongjiang, 4 in Shanghai, 4 in Shandong, 3 in Liaoning, 1 in Chongqing, and 1 in Gansu); 3,049 local cases (1,171 in Guangdong, 1 in Beijing) 544 cases, 245 cases in Jiangxi, 204 cases in Chongqing, 184 cases in Fujian, 127 cases in Yunnan, 119 cases in Hunan, 108 cases in Shanghai, 86 cases in Sichuan, 59 cases in Tianjin, 37 cases in Zhejiang, 36 cases in Henan, 32 cases in Shanxi, and 22 cases in Shaanxi , 17 cases in Shandong, 16 cases in Guizhou, 15 cases in Hebei, 7 cases in Jiangsu, 6 cases in Heilongjiang, 5 cases in Qinghai, 4 cases in Guangxi, 3 cases in Inner Mongolia, and 2 cases in Hainan). There were no new deaths. There were 12 new suspected cases, all local cases (all in Shanghai).[/FONT]
[FONT=仿宋][FONT=仿宋][FONT=仿宋_GB2312][FONT=仿宋]There were 1,953 newly cured and discharged cases on that day[/FONT][/FONT] , including 44 imported cases and 1,909 local cases (993 in Guangdong, 360 in Beijing, 127 in Yunnan, 76 in Chongqing, 75 in Fujian, 72 in Sichuan, 30 in Henan, and 30 in Guizhou. 30 cases, 21 cases in Hubei, 19 cases in Shaanxi, 15 cases in Liaoning, 13 cases in Hainan, 12 cases in Heilongjiang, 10 cases in Shanghai, 10 cases in Zhejiang, 9 cases in Shandong, 8 cases in Inner Mongolia, 7 cases in Jiangsu, 6 cases in Hebei, and 5 cases in Shanxi , 5 cases in Hunan, 3 cases in Tianjin, 1 case in Anhui, 1 case in Guangxi, and 1 case in Qinghai), 54,918 close contacts were released from medical observation, and the number of severe cases increased by 53 from the previous day.[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=仿宋][FONT=仿宋][FONT=仿宋_GB2312][FONT=仿宋]There are 475 confirmed cases imported from abroad[/FONT][/FONT] (no severe cases), and no existing suspected cases. A total of 28,760 confirmed cases, a total of 28,285 cured and discharged cases, and no deaths.[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=仿宋][FONT=仿宋][FONT=仿宋_GB2312][FONT=仿宋]As of[/FONT][/FONT] 24:00 on December 20, according to reports from 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, there were 37,111 confirmed cases (including 329 severe cases), a total of 343,855 cured and discharged cases, and a total of 5,241 deaths. [/FONT][SUP][FONT=仿宋][FONT=仿宋_GB2312][FONT=仿宋]*[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/SUP][FONT=仿宋][FONT=仿宋_GB2312][FONT=仿宋] , a total of 386,276 confirmed cases have been reported[/FONT][/FONT] , and there are 31 suspected cases. A total of 15,345,209 close contacts have been traced, and 252,610 close contacts are still under medical observation.[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=仿宋][FONT=仿宋]A total of 9,096,294 [FONT=仿宋_GB2312][FONT=仿宋]confirmed cases have been reported from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan . [/FONT][/FONT]Among them, there were 489,096 cases in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (106,785 cases were discharged, 11,243 deaths), 1,659 cases in Macau Special Administrative Region (1,270 cases were discharged, 16 deaths), and 8,605,539 cases in Taiwan (13,742 cases were discharged, 14,931 deaths).[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=仿宋][FONT=仿宋][FONT=仿宋_GB2312][FONT=仿宋]Remarks: [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][SUP][FONT=仿宋][FONT=仿宋_GB2312][FONT=仿宋]*[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/SUP][FONT=仿宋][FONT=仿宋_GB2312][FONT=仿宋] Beijing [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=仿宋][FONT=仿宋_GB2312][FONT=仿宋]reduced [/FONT][/FONT][FONT=仿宋_GB2312][FONT=仿宋]1 case[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]

http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/20221...e7c9758a.shtml
 
Afaik, the official Chinese stance is that dying with Covid does not imply dying from Covid, unless there are absolutely no other morbidities detected.
That may help understand how they rationalize these numbers.
 
December 22, 20226:28 AM EST
Last Updated 2 hours ago


China COVID deaths probably running above 5,000 per day - UK research firm Airfinity

Reuters

BEIJING, Dec 22 (Reuters) - More than 5,000 people are probably dying each day from COVID-19 in China, health data firm Airfinity estimated, offering a dramatic contrast to official data from Beijing on the country's current outbreak.

The UK-based firm said it had used modelling based on regional Chinese data to produce figures that also put current daily infections in the country at above a million.

Its estimates were "in stark contrast to the official data which is reporting 1,800 cases and only seven official deaths over the past week," it said in a statement.

more...

https://www.reuters.com/world/china...ove-5000-per-day-uk-research-firm-2022-12-22/
 
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/list_gzbd.shtml
https://wp.m.163.com/163/page/news/v..._nw_=1&_anw_=1
http://www.hnhx.gov.cn/portal/ztzl/e...501index_1.htm


2022-12-03,CHN 4213,GD 1868,BJ 708,YN 130,CQ 260,HUB 015,FU 086,SI 188,HUN 066
2022-12-13,CHN 2291,GD 1044,BJ 476,YN 016,CQ 179,HUB 002,FU 070,SI 073,HUN 001
2022-12-23,CHN 4128,GD 1737,BJ 580,YN 309,CQ 283,HUB 258,FU 338,SI 94,HUN 109
2022-12-24.CHN
2022-12-25,CHN 2668,GD 1182,BJ 340,YN 189,CQ 181,HUB 155,FU 142,SI 68,HUN 87
2022-12-26,CHN 4436,GD 1976,BJ 628,YN 290,CQ 283,HUB 256,FU 217,SI 157,HUN 143




The last week of NHC reports:
 
Last edited:
From now on, daily epidemic information will no longer be released, and relevant epidemic information
will be released by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention for reference and research.

I find them with keyword search : 时新型冠状病毒感染疫情最新情况
2022-12-03,CHN 4213,GD 1868,BJ 708,YN 130,CQ 260,HUB 015,FU 086,SI 188,HUN 066
2022-12-13,CHN 2291,GD 1044,BJ 476,YN 016,CQ 179,HUB 002,FU 070,SI 073,HUN 001

2022-12-23,CHN 4128,GD 1737,BJ 580,YN 309,CQ 283,HUB 258,FU 338,SI 094,HUN 109
2022-12-24.CHN
2022-12-25,CHN 2668,GD 1182,BJ 340,YN 189,CQ 181,HUB 155,FU 142,SI 068,HUN 087
2022-12-26,CHN 4436,GD 1976,BJ 628,YN 290,CQ 283,HUB 256,FU 217,SI 157,HUN 143
2022-12-27,CHN 5231,GD 2233,BJ 892,YN 378,CQ 271,HUB 200,FU 345,SI 125,HUN 205,SX 072
2022-12-28,CHN 5102,GD 2239,BJ 996,YN 087,CQ 315,HUB 198,FU 348,SI 088,HUN 213,SX 112
2022-12-29,CHN 5515,GD 2400,BJ 908,YN 068,CQ 331,HUB 254,FU 520,SI 120,HUN 260,SX 141
 
Translation Google

China insists official Covid data is transparent: state media

Merlin Lint 5 hours ago Last update: 2022-12-30
...
China has insisted that the data it publishes on Covid-19 deaths has always been transparent, state media reported, although the official figures are tiny compared to other countries and that its hospitals are overwhelmed with infections.

Beijing's release of all information about the virus was done "in a spirit of openness", a senior health official said at a press briefing hosted by China's State Council, Xinhua reported Thursday evening.

A national disease control body said there were around 5,500 new local cases and one death on Friday, but with mass testing ending and criteria narrowing for what counts as a Covid death, those numbers are no longer supposed to reflect reality. Some experts estimate that there could be up to 9,000 daily deaths.

"China has always released information on deaths and serious cases of Covid-19 in a spirit of openness and transparency," Jiao Yahui of the National Health Commission (NHC) told reporters on Thursday.

Jiao said China only counts Covid-19 deaths as cases of people who died of virus-induced respiratory failure after testing positive with a nucleic acid test, rather than other countries that include all deaths within 28 days of positive tests.

Jiao said:

China has always stuck to scientific criteria for judging Covid-19 deaths, from start to finish, which are in line with international criteria.

The NHC said last week it would no longer publish the official daily Covid death toll.

Health risk analysis firm Airfinity said it currently estimates 9,000 daily deaths and 1.8 million infections per day in China, while it also expects 1.7 million deaths across the country by the end of April 2023.

The Britain-based researchers said their model was based on data from regional Chinese provinces, before changes in infection reporting were implemented, combined with case growth rates from other former countries. zero-Covid when they lifted the restrictions.

China announced this week that it would end mandatory quarantine upon arrival, after announcing earlier in the month that it had dropped a series of strict measures to contain the coronavirus.

The world's most populous country will downgrade its handling of Covid-19 from January 8, treating it as a Class B infection, rather than a more serious Class A infection.

Liang Wannian, head of the NHC's Covid response expert group, called the measures appropriate, scientific and based on law, Xinhua reported.

The state news agency reported that Liang said the change did not mean China was abandoning the virus, but rather directed resources to the most important areas of epidemic control and treatment. infected people.

https://news-24.fr/la-chine-insiste...les-de-covid-sont-transparentes-medias-detat/
 
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