tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Chaos Solitons Fractals
. 2022 Mar;156:111812.
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.111812. Epub 2022 Jan 20.
Effect of vaccine efficacy on disease transmission with age-structured
Lu Yin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], YiKang Lu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], ChunPeng Du[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Lei Shi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Recent outbreaks of novel infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19, H2N3) have highlighted the threat of pathogen transmission, and vaccination offers a necessary tool to relieve illness. However, vaccine efficacy is one of the barriers to eradicating the epidemic. Intuitively, vaccine efficacy is closely related to age structures, and the distribution of vaccine efficacy usually obeys a Gaussian distribution, such as with H3N2 and influenza A and B. Based on this fact, in this paper, we study the effect of vaccine efficacy on disease spread by considering different age structures and extending the traditional susceptible-infected-recovery/vaccinator(SIR/V) model with two stages to three stages, which includes the decision-making stage, epidemic stage, and birth-death stage. Extensive numerical simulations show that our model generates a higher vaccination level compared with the case of complete vaccine efficacy because the vaccinated individuals in our model can form small and numerous clusters slower than that of complete vaccine efficacy. In addition, priority vaccination for the elderly is conducive to halting the epidemic when facing population ageing. Our work is expected to provide valuable information for decision-making and the design of more effective disease control strategies.
Keywords: Age structure; Birth-death process; Disease spreading; Population ageing; Vaccination behaviors.
. 2022 Mar;156:111812.
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.111812. Epub 2022 Jan 20.
Effect of vaccine efficacy on disease transmission with age-structured
Lu Yin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], YiKang Lu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], ChunPeng Du[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Lei Shi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35075336
- PMCID: PMC8769716
- DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.111812
Abstract
Recent outbreaks of novel infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19, H2N3) have highlighted the threat of pathogen transmission, and vaccination offers a necessary tool to relieve illness. However, vaccine efficacy is one of the barriers to eradicating the epidemic. Intuitively, vaccine efficacy is closely related to age structures, and the distribution of vaccine efficacy usually obeys a Gaussian distribution, such as with H3N2 and influenza A and B. Based on this fact, in this paper, we study the effect of vaccine efficacy on disease spread by considering different age structures and extending the traditional susceptible-infected-recovery/vaccinator(SIR/V) model with two stages to three stages, which includes the decision-making stage, epidemic stage, and birth-death stage. Extensive numerical simulations show that our model generates a higher vaccination level compared with the case of complete vaccine efficacy because the vaccinated individuals in our model can form small and numerous clusters slower than that of complete vaccine efficacy. In addition, priority vaccination for the elderly is conducive to halting the epidemic when facing population ageing. Our work is expected to provide valuable information for decision-making and the design of more effective disease control strategies.
Keywords: Age structure; Birth-death process; Disease spreading; Population ageing; Vaccination behaviors.