Cfr=0.005%

[gsgs]

http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=19319
(hattip Peter Osborn)

By 23 August there had been 3179 recorded cases (97.8% reported as confirmed),
including 972 hospitalisations, 114 intensive care admissions, and 16 deaths.
Influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance in general practice suggests that 7.5% (95% CI: 3.4?11.2)
of the population of New Zealand had symptomatic infection, giving a case fatality ratio of 0.005%. Hospitalisations were markedly higher for Māori (age standardised relative risk (RR)=3.0, 95% CI: 2.9?3.2)
and Pacific peoples (RR=6.7, 95% CI: 6.2?7.1) compared with Europeans and others. The apparent
decline of the pandemic (shown by all surveillance systems) cannot be fully explained.
New Zealand remains in the middle of its traditional influenza season, the influenza A(H1N1)v virus
appears relatively infectious, and we estimate that only about 11% of the population have been
infected by this novel agent.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Cfr=0.005%

compare with Australia :

NZop=4.1M,hosp=972(237perM),dead=16(3.9perM)
OZop=20.3M,hosp~6000(296perM),dead~180(8.9perM)




0.05% is ~1/20 that of seasonal flu, did they also search for indirect deaths,
seasonal variations in total deaths as what is used for the 0.1% estimate
of seasonal flu ? I have to read the whole paper...

And then, still more than 5% was oldflu over the whole season, I think.
So, how many died in NZ (and Oz) in total (all causes) during this flu-season ?
(and compare that with previous seasons and deaths for the whole year)

 

[gsgs]

Re: Cfr=0.005%

only 7.5% of the population symptomatically infected, 11% including
asymptomatic cases.
Remember the 7% estimate for New York City.
So, why does CDC assume 30% for USA this fall/winter ??
Why do they assume (well, planning scenario") 30000-90000 deaths ?


> The apparent decline of the pandemic (shown by all surveillance
> systems) cannot be fully explained.

can they explain the seasonal decline each season ?


------------------------
NZ:
68% European origin
9% Asian origin
7% Pacific origin
15% Maori

Maori and Pacific people had 3 times higher hospitalization rate
so I get 165 Eurasians hospitalized per M. and 493 Maori,Pacificians

while Australians are 95% of European origin (British,Irish)

 

[Andy2000]

Re: Cfr=0.005%

Brazil's population is 191,241,714
11% attack rate
21,036,589 (21 million infections)
602 deaths in Brazil (probably a lot more)
CFR=0.003

California's population is 36 million
11% attack rate
3,960,000 infections
150 deaths (FT)
CFR=0.004

Australia's population is 21,007,310
11% attack rate
2,310,804 infections
147 deaths
CFR=0.006

I second the question - where do the planners get their attack rate estimates from?
Do 2nd waves infect more of the population for reasons other than seasonality - both Australia and Brazil are in winter flu season?
Also, if 11% of US population may have become infected in a 1st wave and another 11% gets infected in a second that's getting closer to 30% attack rate predicted in some plans.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Cfr=0.005%

estimates from serology or questioning people.

CAR ignores asymptomatic infections

when you compute the CFR you must estimate all deaths,
not only the reported deaths.
This includes deaths which are almost undetectable as being caused
by flu like deaths from heart-attack, accidents,...whatever.

They estimated these deaths by seasonal variations in total deaths
and comparing with the severety of the flu-season.

So, what we need are estimates of total deaths from all causes
in these countries during the flu-wave period.
USA has the 122-cities death surveilance , but no such
system in Brazil,Argentina,Australia,New Zealand,... ?!?

And the annual death-statistics often takes years until
updates are shown.
Some cities may give timely death-statistics.

Melbourne ? Buenos Aires ? Sao Paulo ? Auckland ?

-------------
Andy2000's link below, but hopefully clickable
http://bit.ly/h6MSJ

J10 ff is influenza, use "J10" in keyword-searches
hey, I found it for 1863: http://gazette.slv.vic.gov.au/images/1863/V/general/15.pdf

 

[Andy2000]

Re: Cfr=0.005%

http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/0704E1206AE55EB5CA25757C00137C46/$File/33030_2007.pdf

This pdf is Australia's causes of death report for 2007 from their department of statistics.

Pages 11-12, 26, 43-45 seem to be on the subject of influenza.

Unfortunately it is yearly.



But this website on page 13/19 has a chart similar to MMWR

Rate of deaths classified as influenza and pneumonia as per NSW Registered
Death Certificates, 2004-2009
http://www.emergency.health.nsw.gov.au/swineflu/resources/pdf/case_statistics_200809.pdf

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Cfr=0.005%

A few weeks back in a CDC doc these were the percentages of deaths in US by race:
Hispanic & Latino 35%
White 44%
Black 15%
Asian 3%
Native 1%
Hawaiian&Pacific Islander .4%

 

[gsgs]

Re: Cfr=0.005%

US-population:
75% white(44)
12.3% black(15)
3.6% Asia(3)
0.9% native(1)
12.5% Hispanics(35)

most increased for Hispanics. Also more severe, higher mortality
in Mexico,South America