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CDC swine flu bulletin 6/30/09

hawkeye

Well-known member
Bolding is mine..

Director's Update Brief
30 Jun 2009 815EDT
More Planning and Consultation

screenshot_01.jpg


• Timeline of major events and milestones between now and fall fluseason
• Overarching messages and key points
• Role of the White House, HHS, DHS, and other federal departmentsin
message delivery
• Important principles, challenges, themes that drive strategy
• Examples of Important Events/Milestones
– National Influenza Vaccine Summit: June 29-July 1
– Obama Administration Flu Preparedness Summit: July 9
– National Governors Association summer meeting: July 17-21
Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends priority
group for immunization

Southern Hemisphere H1N1 surveillance and monitoring data
available: August 31

National Vaccine Advisory Committee (NVAC) meeting: September
14-15


• Overarching messages:
Federal government working across all deptswith state, local, and
tribal officials to prepare for fall.

– During fall H1N1 and seasonal flu will be circulating together with
potential to affect large number of people with serious illness,social
disruption and even death.

– Uncertain how severe outbreak will be; planning assumption is that
H1N1 virus will be prevalent.

– People at all levels must plan accordingly and accept responsibility for
their role in prevention/response.
– There are things you can do:
• Prevention measures (hand hygiene/cough etiquette)
• Develop plans (family, workplace, school) to mitigate infection
• By working together we can potentially greatly reduce impact
 
Re: CDC swine flu bulletin 6/30/09

They listed neurocognitive disorders as an underlying condition. That is an absolutely incredible stretch.
 
Re: CDC swine flu bulletin 6/30/09

They listed neurocognitive disorders as an underlying condition. That is an absolutely incredible stretch.

Mental retardation (oligophrenic patients) could involve the so-called ipotalamus-ipophisis-surrenal glands and thus causes reduction in immune system response to infections.
 
Re: CDC swine flu bulletin 6/30/09

The same with obesity. Using their definitions, about 13% of the US population is obese (BMI >= 30) and about 1% morbidly obese (BMI >= 40)
 
Re: CDC swine flu bulletin 6/30/09

Isn't it already time for the next Update Brief to be out? Should have been released yesterday, correct? Does anyone have a link?
 
Re: CDC swine flu bulletin 6/30/09

why can't we get these reports? seems new ones are not being placed at this location. Does anyone have a report for July?
 
Re: CDC swine flu bulletin 6/30/09

Not-to-miss graphic on page 5, captioned as sensitive. Showing four major influences on reported case rate: 1) sought care; 2) specimen taken; 3) specimen tested; 4) sensitivity of test. This graphically illustrates a large number of actual cases being whittled down to a small number of reported cases, dues to the abovementioned factors. This fleshes out the recent CDC statement that modeling demonstrates over one million actual cases in the US. If only the MSM would publish it.
 
Re: CDC swine flu bulletin 6/30/09

Not-to-miss graphic on page 5, captioned as sensitive.

Every page is captioned as sensitive. ;) What I want to know is how people found these reports on this site to begin with - I can't find a page on astho.org that posts the links... ???
 
Re: CDC swine flu bulletin 6/30/09

Not-to-miss graphic on page 5, captioned as sensitive. Showing four major influences on reported case rate: 1) sought care; 2) specimen taken; 3) specimen tested; 4) sensitivity of test. This graphically illustrates a large number of actual cases being whittled down to a small number of reported cases, dues to the abovementioned factors. This fleshes out the recent CDC statement that modeling demonstrates over one million actual cases in the US. If only the MSM would publish it.

Isn't there still a jump from "reported influenza" to actual cases in the population?

In other words, if the triangle is more square-like, the sought care number is closer to the reported cases number. So there is a higher liklihood that all those seeking care actually have H1. And then, the sought care is a better indicator of total burden in the population (assuming a ratio or multiplier can be elucidated).

But if the triangle remains a triangle, many are seeking care due to concern or fear, but don't have the virus. The burden on the total population is less.

So while the triangle is interesting to whittle down reported cases, it's not that great in predicting total burden unless there's some numbers attached to the levels over time. And some basic relationships between sought care or reported cases and total burden may still need modelling.

Too bad Gapminder wasn't in triangles.

J.
 
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