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CDC Surveillance Week 25

gsgs

gsgs

Registered User
week 25 is available now at

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

During week 25 (June 21-27, 2009), influenza activity decreased in the United States

positives rate = 30.7% (down from 40%)
98% are ******-flu
The proportion of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) was below the national baseline
 
Re: CDC Surveillance Week 25

Hospitalization rates are increasing for all age groups...

Week 24:

EIP24_small.gif



Week 25:

EIP25_small.gif
 
Re: CDC Surveillance Week 25

You know, it's somewhat of an exercise in futility to argue over these data. I hope you are right gsgs and we see a dramatic drop in cases over the next few weeks. That might give the vaccine manufacturers time to catch up before and if we have a serious rebound in the fall. But, for myself, I think that there is enough uncertainty in the way the data are collected and reported that I am personally preparing for a sustained pandemic and advising family and friends to do the same.
 
Re: CDC Surveillance Week 25

I agree with JimO.
% of positif test doesn't say much. The denominator varies to much. Who is getting tested?
Check death
WTB
 
Re: CDC Surveillance Week 25

As a 61 year old layman who is trying to balance what is real and what is politics, I find all the numbers very confusing and therefore I count on Flutrackers for my information. Questions - 1) Why the 31 year gap in the 18 to 49 year old group? I would certainly like to have HALF of that back. 2) At this point in a pandemic, aren't the exact case counts for infections basically useless? I would think the medical and political folks would be more concerned with CFR's and a more exact baseline for age groups and exactly what "underlying" conditions are suspect. Sorry for the rant.

Oldman
 
Re: CDC Surveillance Week 25

WTB said:
I agree with JimO.
% of positif test doesn't say much. The denominator varies to much. Who is getting tested?
Check death
WTB
Click to expand...


I second that... Also the data on these fresh reports change as they are always incomplete. The confirmed cases bar which is dropping off this week has done that for every single weeks fresh report, next week's report will show it higher rather than lower because CDC will have more of the data.
 
Re: CDC Surveillance Week 25

QUOTE=oldman;260115]As a 61 year old layman who is trying to balance what is real and what is politics, I find all the numbers very confusing and therefore I count on Flutrackers for my information. Questions - 1) Why the 31 year gap in the 18 to 49 year old group? I would certainly like to have HALF of that back. 2) At this point in a pandemic, aren't the exact case counts for infections basically useless? I would think the medical and political folks would be more concerned with CFR's and a more exact baseline for age groups and exactly what "underlying" conditions are suspect. Sorry for the rant.

Oldman[/QUOTE]Here are a couple of charts I got from a posted article published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

When looking at the charts, keep in mind that the 2009 data includes illnesses and deaths from seasonal flu from the first quarter, which are largely at the two extremes of the graph.

The attachment wasn't the correct file and now I can't upload the correct one - I'm getting an error message saying that it's an invalid file. I'll keep working on it. Sorry.
 
Last edited:
Re: CDC Surveillance Week 25

I can't get the file to open, which I take to mean you are still having problems with it. Do I understand you to say there is a W shaped mortality curve this year?
 
Re: CDC Surveillance Week 25

pflu said:
I second that... Also the data on these fresh reports change as they are always incomplete. The confirmed cases bar which is dropping off this week has done that for every single weeks fresh report, next week's report will show it higher rather than lower because CDC will have more of the data.
Click to expand...
The CDC also posted the data a day early this week due to the holiday. Some of the states did not report in time and they missed data collected the last 24 hours in the reporting period.
 
Re: CDC Surveillance Week 25

JimO said:
The CDC also posted the data a day early this week due to the holiday. Some of the states did not report in time and they missed data collected the last 24 hours in the reporting period.
Click to expand...

Nice find, I saw those white states in the map but didn't connect the dots as to why they didn't report.
 
Re: CDC Surveillance Week 25

gsgs said:
those are "cumulative" hospitalization rates. It always goes up
by definition.

compare with the seasonal wave:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/EIP20.htm
Click to expand...

Your comparison chart shows previous years up to week 17 (ending may 2nd), yet the CDC chart is from week 20 (official end of flu season), this is another example of data manipulation by the CDC. Here is the chart you referenced...

EIP20.GIF


This shows older Novel H1N1 hospitalizations though May 23rd and incomplete data from previous years. If previous year data and current H1N1 data through week 25 was shown you would see the red line spike away from Green Blue and Purple.
 
Re: CDC Surveillance Week 25

JimO said:
The CDC also posted the data a day early this week due to the holiday. Some of the states did not report in time and they missed data collected the last 24 hours in the reporting period.
Click to expand...

did they mention that somewhere ? (they really should !)
 
Re: CDC Surveillance Week 25

cumulative presentation of EIP-data is not so good, IMO.
They didn't use cumulative numbers for serotype testing
or ILI either.
Also, I can't find the numbers, only the chart.
For the other charts they have a link to see the chart-data,
but not for EIP.
Maybe the 10 states have the data and we can add them
up (weighted)


http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/osr/site/eip/sites.htm
 
Re: CDC Surveillance Week 25

gsgs said:
did they mention that somewhere ? (they really should !)
Click to expand...

Why point out what they are trying to hide. This is the first white I've seen on that map since swine broke...


u1.jpg


Notice how it's NJ, Utah, and DC. Why not North Dakota, Idaho, or Vermont. It's a game they can play because the only people who care are a few crack pots like us who are actually following this.
 
Re: CDC Surveillance Week 25

gsgs said:
those are "cumulative" hospitalization rates. It always goes up by definition.

compare with the seasonal wave:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/EIP20.htm
Click to expand...
Yes, but the bar chart represents new deaths for each reporting period, and the slope of the cumulative line hasn't decreased. When the situation begins to improve, the slope of the line for cumulative data will decrease until it is horizontal. I know that you know all this, but am just pointing it out for those who don't.

As I said before, I think we'll have a sustained pandemic into the fall, but I will be happy and relieved to be completely wrong.
 
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