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CDC Reports 509 New Deaths This Week - total 3,440

JimO

JimO

Well-known member
Source: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/#totalcases

U.S. Influenza and Pneumonia-Associated Hospitalizations
and Deaths from August 30 ? September 19, 2009
Posted October 2, 2009, 11:00 AM ET
Data reported to CDC by October 2, 2009, 12:00 AM ET Cases Defined by

Hospitalizations - Deaths

Influenza and Pneumonia Syndrome - 12,863 - 1,197
Influenza Laboratory-Tests - 3,311 - 182

Totals: 16,174 - 1,379 ​
 
Re: CDC Reports 443 New Deaths This Week - total 1,987

Re: CDC Reports 443 New Deaths This Week - total 1,987

JimO said:
Source: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/#totalcases

U.S. Influenza and Pneumonia-Associated Hospitalizations
and Deaths from August 30 ? September 19, 2009
Posted October 2, 2009, 11:00 AM ET
Data reported to CDC by October 2, 2009, 12:00 AM ET Cases Defined by

Hospitalizations - Deaths

Influenza and Pneumonia Syndrome - 12,863 - 1,197
Influenza Laboratory-Tests - 3,311 - 182

Totals: 16,174 - 1,379 ​
Click to expand...

The CDC seems to have updated some information and not other information on the 2 October 2009 update:

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/

The "Weekly Influenza Surveillance Report" is still the week ending 19 September 2009-Week 37. The "Percentage of Visits for Influenza-like Illness" is still the same as last week.

The CDC has also not changed the labeling for the data noted by JimO above. Last week's update was from August 30-Sept 19. I assume the data above should read August 30 - Sept 26.

Whatever the labeling, an increase of over 6,000 hospitalizations and 443 deaths in one week is not good news.
 
Re: CDC Reports 443 New Deaths This Week - total 1,987

Re: CDC Reports 443 New Deaths This Week - total 1,987

The fluview has now been updated.
Also note;

"The U.S. Virgin Islands and two states did not report (Montana and Nevada)."

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
 
Re: CDC Reports 443 New Deaths This Week - total 1,987

Re: CDC Reports 443 New Deaths This Week - total 1,987

RoRo said:
The fluview has now been updated.
Also note;

"The U.S. Virgin Islands and two states did not report (Montana and Nevada)."

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
Click to expand...

This may have been noticed by others before, but I just picked up on it....

It was interesting to note that when looking at this chart the deaths are being added retroactively. So, even though numbers may appear to be down for any given week, the true picture does not emerge until 2-3 weeks later. This makes real time (or at least weekly) data assessment impossible.

IPD38_small.gif
 
Re: CDC Reports 443 New Deaths This Week - total 1,987

Re: CDC Reports 443 New Deaths This Week - total 1,987

Niko said:
This may have been noticed by others before, but I just picked up on it....

It was interesting to note that when looking at this chart the deaths are being added retroactively. So, even though numbers may appear to be down for any given week, the true picture does not emerge until 2-3 weeks later. This makes real time (or at least weekly) data assessment impossible.
Click to expand...

Right. Those pediatric fatalities can be up to six weeks old before they're added. In many cases, the tens of kids in our dead children thread are not included yet. Look at that second peak beginning in the middle of August, exactly coinciding with resumption of school activities, but not obvious until today's data six weeks later. So very sad, even more so because for us, it was not unexpected.:banghead:
 
Re: CDC Reports 443 New Deaths This Week - total 1,987

Re: CDC Reports 443 New Deaths This Week - total 1,987

There is most certainly a timelag or confusion in diagnosis and reporting as is evident from JimO's new post of the child deaths that have been reported here or in the media. (JimO has counted 110 whereas the CDC reports 60 deaths from H1N1).

What is striking about the graph above is the radically different pattern in when deaths are occurring as well as how many deaths are occurring.

When someone tells you "It is just the flu" or "the flu kills 30,000 each year"...you tell them, "Maybe, but during past flu seasons only about 80 or so children died and most of them die during the peak flu months between December and April/May. Children have not been dying in the summer. They did not die in the summer of 2006, 4 died in the summer of 2007, none in the summer of 2008, but A(H1N1) killed 46 this summer and has killed 14 since 30 August 2009."

This is not the usual flu and it is not killing the people it usually kills.
 
Re: CDC Reports 443 New Deaths This Week - total 1,987

Re: CDC Reports 443 New Deaths This Week - total 1,987

Good point Rainbow Lake.

With regards to the Seasonal Flu: I've found this:

Deaths from Flu---FULL STATISTCAL DATA OF SEASONAL FLU & PNUEMONIA

Deaths from Flu: 63,730 annual deaths for influenza and pneumonia (NVSR Sep 2001); estimated 20,000 deaths from flu (NIAID)
Cause of death rank: 7th leading cause of death in 1999 and 2000 is "pneumonia/influenza" (CDC)

Death rate extrapolations for USA for Flu: 63,729 per year, 5,310 per month, 1,225 per week, 174 per day, 7 per hour, 0 per minute, 0 per second. Note: this automatic extrapolation calculation uses the deaths statistic: 63,730 annual deaths for influenza and pneumonia (NVSR Sep 2001); estimated 20,000 deaths from flu (NIAID)

Deaths information for Flu: An estimated 100,000 hospitalizations and about 20,000 deaths occur each year from the flu or its complications. (Source: excerpt from Focus On The Flu: NIAID) ... average of 20,000 to 40,000 deaths per year. (Source: excerpt from Microbes in Sickness and in Health - Publications, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases: NIAID) ... in the United States more than 100,000 people are hospitalized and more than 20,000 people die from the flu and its complications every year. (Source: excerpt from The Flu, NIAID Fact Sheet: NIAID) ... In an average year, flu leads to about 20,000 deaths nationwide and many more hospitalizations. (Source: excerpt from What to Do About the Flu - Age Page - Health Information: NIA)
Average life years lost from Flu: 9.5 years for pneumonia/influenza (SEER)1; 10.9 for pneumonia/influenza in North Carolina2; 4.3 average YPLL/person for pneumonia and influenza in Michigan3.
Death statistics for Flu: The following are statistics from various sources about deaths and Flu:
36,655 female deaths for Influenza and Pneumonia in the USA 2000 (American Heart Association, 2002)
257 people died from influenza each year in the US 2001 (Deaths: Final data for 2001, NCHS, CDC)
0.1 people per 100,000 population died from influenza each year in the US 2001 (Deaths: Final data for 2001, NCHS, CDC)
Death statistics by age in the USA for influenza and pneumonia:
influenza and pneumonia caused 2.5% of deaths for age 1-4 years in USA 1999 [NVSR 2001]
influenza and pneumonia caused 1.3% of deaths for age 5-9 years in USA 1999 [NVSR 2001]
influenza and pneumonia caused 1.1% of deaths for age 10-14 years in USA 1999 [NVSR 2001]
influenza and pneumonia caused 0.5% of deaths for age 15-19 years in USA 1999 [NVSR 2001]
influenza and pneumonia caused 0.6% of deaths for age 20-24 years in USA 1999 [NVSR 2001]
influenza and pneumonia caused 1.2% of deaths for age 35-44 years in USA 1999 [NVSR 2001]
influenza and pneumonia caused 1.1% of deaths for age 45-54 years in USA 1999 [NVSR 2001]
influenza and pneumonia caused 3.2% of deaths for age 65 and over years in USA 1999 [NVSR 2001]
influenza and pneumonia caused 1.5% of deaths for age 65-74 years in USA 1999 [NVSR 2001]
influenza and pneumonia caused 2.7% of deaths for age 75-84 years in USA 1999 [NVSR 2001]
influenza and pneumonia caused 4.8% of deaths for age 85 and over in USA 1999 [NVSR 2001]
Death statistics by race in the USA for influenza and pneumonia:
19.2 per 100,000 women for influenza and pneumonia in USA 2001 (NCHS, 2003)
20.5 per 100,000 Hispanic/Latino people for influenza and pneumonia in USA 2001 (NCHS, 2003)
21.7 per 100,000 white people for influenza and pneumonia in USA 2001 (NCHS, 2003)
22.5 per 100,000 American Indian or Alaska Native people for influenza and pneumonia in USA 2001 (NCHS, 2003)
24.1 per 100,000 black people for influenza and pneumonia in USA 2001 (NCHS, 2003)
26.6 per 100,000 men for influenza and pneumonia in USA 2001 (NCHS, 2003)
3.5 per 100,000 Asian/Pacific Islander people for influenza and pneumonia in USA 2001 (NCHS, 2003)
43.7 per 100,000 people for influenza and pneumonia in USA 2001 (NCHS, 2003)
Death statistics in Australia for pneumonia and influenza:
1,353 men died from pneumonia and influenza in Australia 2002 (AIHW National Morbidity Database, Australia’s Health 2004, AIHW)
 
Re: CDC Reports 587 New Deaths This Week - total 2,393

Re: CDC Reports 587 New Deaths This Week - total 2,393

Source: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/#totalcases

U.S. Influenza and Pneumonia-Associated Hospitalizations
and Deaths from August 30 ? October 3, 2009

Posted October 9, 2009, 11:00 AM ET

Data reported to CDC by October 6, 2009, 12:00 AM ET

Cases Defined by - Hospitalizations - Deaths

Influenza and Pneumonia Syndrome - 12,384 - 1,544
Influenza Laboratory -Tests - 3,874 - 240

Totals - 16,258 - 1,784​
 
Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931

Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931

Source: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/#totalcases

U.S. Influenza and Pneumonia-Associated Hospitalizations
and Deaths from October 4 ? October 10, 2009

Posted October 16, 2009, 11:00 AM ET

Data reported to CDC by October 13, 2009, 12:00 AM ET

Cases Defined by - Hospitalizations - Deaths

Influenza and Pneumonia Syndrome - 15,696 - 2,029
Influenza Laboratory-Tests - 4,958 - 292​
 
Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931

Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931

JimO said:
Source: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/#totalcases

U.S. Influenza and Pneumonia-Associated Hospitalizations
and Deaths from October 4 ? October 10, 2009

Posted October 16, 2009, 11:00 AM ET

Data reported to CDC by October 13, 2009, 12:00 AM ET

Cases Defined by - Hospitalizations - Deaths

Influenza and Pneumonia Syndrome - 15,696 - 2,029
Influenza Laboratory-Tests - 4,958 - 292​
Click to expand...


Take another look at that. The chart previously said August 30-October 3. This one says October 4-October 10. Indicating those are 1 week totals. But in the notes for the chart it still says that is since August 30th.
 
Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

wotan said:
Take another look at that. The chart previously said August 30-October 3. This one says October 4-October 10. Indicating those are 1 week totals. But in the notes for the chart it still says that is since August 30th.
Click to expand...
That's a great point. I didn't catch that. RoRo has seen a lot of errors in the CDC's posted information. If those numbers are for one week only, that's a huge difference.

We need to run this to ground.
 
Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

JimO said:
That's a great point. I didn't catch that. RoRo has seen a lot of errors in the CDC's posted information. If those numbers are for one week only, that's a huge difference.

We need to run this to ground.
Click to expand...

I missed it the first time through as well. I'm pretty sure I haven't seen that particular error before (what I noticed in the past was updating date and timestamps on the files without updating the data. I don't believe it is one week or the MMWR is truly useless and this is going downhill fast. Hopefully they will fix whichever part of that chart is incorrect or explain what is going on.

October 4th is the first week of the 2009-2010 flu season. It would be the right time to reset again if they were going to do it.
 
Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

wotan said:
I missed it the first time through as well. I'm pretty sure I haven't seen that particular error before (what I noticed in the past was updating date and timestamps on the files without updating the data. I don't believe it is one week or the MMWR is truly useless and this is going downhill fast. Hopefully they will fix whichever part of that chart is incorrect or explain what is going on.

October 4th is the first week of the 2009-2010 flu season. It would be the right time to reset again if they were going to do it.
Click to expand...
I would be very surprised if the numbers were from Week 40. However, it is possible. The CDC shows 240 lab-confirmed deaths from 8/31-10/3 and then 292 lab-confirmed deaths in the recent report. If the new report is truly cumulative, then that means only 42 lab-confirmed deaths in Week 39. My tally shows 131 deaths between 9/27 and 10/7 (I need to start archiving my spreadsheets every Friday). Anyway, the CDC number is ~5.5 deaths per day in Week 39. We show ~13.1 deaths during the 10 days that included Week 39.

This gives me a sinking feeling that the current report could be for one week. Again, it is imperative to confirm this.
 
Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

JimO said:
I would be very surprised if the numbers were from Week 40. However, it is possible. The CDC shows 240 lab-confirmed deaths from 8/31-10/3 and then 292 lab-confirmed deaths in the recent report. If the new report is truly cumulative, then that means only 42 lab-confirmed deaths in Week 39. My tally shows 131 deaths between 9/27 and 10/7 (I need to start archiving my spreadsheets every Friday). Anyway, the CDC number is ~5.5 deaths per day in Week 39. We show ~13.1 deaths during the 10 days that included Week 39.

This gives me a sinking feeling that the current report could be for one week. Again, it is imperative to confirm this.
Click to expand...


The week 39 reported only added about 80 hospitalizations to the total. This one is several thousand higher if it is cumulative. But, the numbers have been fairly flat for this to be the exponential growth part of the wave, and with 16000 hospitalized in the last several weeks, the expectation is ~10% of those will die....
 
Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

:tiphat: High Risk

The chart was corrected to show those being cumulative numbers since August 30th.
 
Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

Here's the numbers for the US;


US deaths and hospitalizations by week..webp
 
Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

Ok - let's be frank here. These numbers do not reflect the number of people who have probably become ill with novel H1N1 in the U.S. That number is in the millions. And the number of deaths? - there is no way to know......H1N1 + ILI + pnuemonia + people who die of heart attacks 2 weeks after recovering from H1N1....etc....etc....etc......

Discussion here:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=128690
 
Re: CDC Reports 443 New Deaths This Week - total 1,987

Re: CDC Reports 443 New Deaths This Week - total 1,987

Deleted. Confused. Thought I saw a new chart for this week but it was still last week's. Maybe it changed and then changed back. Or I could just be going mad :-)
 
Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931?

A comparison of Week 40 MMWR 2009 with previous years;

week 40 MMWR.webp

P&I is up as a percentage of total deaths, but the number of deaths is not outside the expected range for week 40. The surveillance is not showing a huge number of excess deaths. The MMWR has numbers from 116 of the 122 surveillance cities and covers between 25 and 35% of the population. So times 3 gives you an idea of the absolute numbers of who died from what in the US in week 40.
 
Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931

Re: CDC Reports 547 New Deaths This Week - total 2,931

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/

U.S. Influenza and Pneumonia-Associated Hospitalizations
and Deaths from August 30 to October 17, 2009

Posted October 23, 2009, 11:00 AM ET

Data reported to CDC by October 20, 2009, 12:00 AM ET

Cases Defined by - Hospitalizations - Deaths

Influenza and Pneumonia Syndrome - 21,823 - 2,416
Influenza Laboratory-Tests - 8,204 - 411
 
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