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CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

How is it possible that there were 21 more patiens hospitalized June 11 than June 18 ?



Posted by "pflu" Yesterday June 18, 2009, 06:29 PM

Here is the underlying data...

2-May 13
3-May 30
4-May 35
7-May 42
8-May 57
9-May 104
12-May 116
15-May 173
18-May 200
20-May 247
22-May 300
28-May 507
4-Jun 770
11-Jun 1000
18-Jun 1600



Posted by "pflu" Today, June 19,2009 12:16 PM

underlying data...

2-May 13
3-May 30
4-May 35
7-May 42
8-May 57
9-May 104
12-May 116
15-May 173
19-May 229
20-May 247
21-May 249
22-May 302
25-May 317
27-May 426
28-May 507
2-Jun 716
4-Jun 770
5-Jun 1027
11-Jun 1621
 
Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

The changes sure indicate a much steeper increase in hospitalizations. As I stated above, that number could be over 3,000 by the end of this week.
 
Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

JimO said:
The changes sure indicate a much steeper increase in hospitalizations. As I stated above, that number could be over 3,000 by the end of this week.
Click to expand...


I agree... unfortunately the duration between reports is getting longer and longer.

Can you post your state tabulations in this thread or a new one?

Maybe with all of us working on it we can come up with additional state numbers and possibly a more detailed picture.
 
Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

Yes, they went from about 50 two days ago, to 92 yesterday, and, as you indicated, 107 today.
 
Last edited:
Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

pflu said:
I agree... unfortunately the duration between reports is getting longer and longer.

Can you post your state tabulations in this thread or a new one?

Maybe with all of us working on it we can come up with additional state numbers and possibly a more detailed picture.
Click to expand...
I have a thread going under United States and if I knew how to post a link to the thread, I'd do it. Unfortunately, I have to run to a meeting and actually do some work. I'll update it tonight.
 
Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

look at New York.
We have some statistics from New York and it's declining there.
Was that a pandemic wave ?

Very few deaths and hospitalizations, mainly children affected,
school closures did help.
6.9% reported ILI-symptoms 1.May - 20.May but only
~20% of the ILI-wave was in that period, peak 26.May.
OTOH I think these reports are an overestimate, people
say they had ILI but "only" had a cold.
Anyway, multiplying by 5 gives 35% of the population infected ...
They should really repeat that questioning and ask
New Yorkers now, how many had had it.

So, I assume other cities will see the same pattern with delay.
In many regions there is almost nothing yet.
 
Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

CDC has weekly updated charts of cumulative hospitalization
rates, latest here:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/EIP23.htm

but the curves are flat, hard to estimate the trend,
and other than with the other graphs they don't give
the underlying data.

But the data(numbers) should be available somewhere !


biggest increase in the 0-2Y group

---------edit-------------
see here for the last seasonal "wave" :
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/EIP20.htm

cumulative is not so informative, IMO.
And give the data, please, as with the other graphs.
(which is appreciated) Also the epidemic curve, please.
Do you hear me, CDC ?
 
Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

Not really clear what the graph is measuring- Hospitalizations of ILI or, tested/confirmed H1N1 cases?

reason I ask, if its confirmed infections, is the rates of change may also be reflecting testing delay. without factoring that in, its hard to figure out what the curve ereally should look like. I'm guessing ( And would appreciate feedback!) that if its ILI, then the curve is probably cleaner and a bit more reflective of real growth.

Thoughts?
 
Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

Good points, LMonty. Either way it probably represents pretty clean and reliable data. Most ILI at this time of year and esp in an under 60 age group probably represents pandemic flu and also this group of hospitalized patients is the most likely group to get good testing. This should put a point on hospitals improving their infection control methods relative to this among other things. Testing delays should be minimal esp now that most state labs are up to snuff. Pubic reporting unfortunately seems to be delayed. This sort of nontransparency didn't work out well in 1918 as well documented in Barry's 'The Great Influenza'.
 
Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

gsgs said:
CDC has weekly updated charts of cumulative hospitalization
rates, latest here:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/EIP23.htm

but the curves are flat, hard to estimate the trend,
and other than with the other graphs they don't give
the underlying data.

But the data(numbers) should be available somewhere !


biggest increase in the 0-2Y group

---------edit-------------
see here for the last seasonal "wave" :
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/EIP20.htm

cumulative is not so informative, IMO.
And give the data, please, as with the other graphs.
(which is appreciated) Also the epidemic curve, please.
Do you hear me, CDC ?
Click to expand...


Those charts show the rate as a percentage of the population and include all hospitalizations, they don't isolate H1N1. Pretty useless charts in these early stages of the outbreak, which is probably why the CDC is throwing them back in there recently.
 
Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

gsgs said:
.......they don't give
the underlying data.

But the data(numbers) should be available somewhere !
Click to expand...

That's the big question - why don't they just publish the data? They publish select data, using questionable collection techniques/standards - and they keep certain data streams locked in a private vault.

I'm sorry - but many of us have had this conversation here at FluTrackers often - of what use is data / charts, when the data cannot be confirmed.

And it should be pointed out that releasing a chart on a Per Population Axis is probably one of the most mellow, no-threatening curves you could base this on. I doubt that is accidental. My guess is that at the point the Population Axis approach starts showing a more visualy alarming curve - they'll find yet another less alarming visual on the chart numbers to present.
 
Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

Numbers are weak because then need to be interpreted in their context.
The rate of hospitalisation wich is nb of new hospitalisation over a period of time can be treacky. In the begining of the pandemic somme people were hospitalised just to prevent the spread of the virus. Now in Canada we are saying to poeple to stay at home unless they need acute medical attention. And now we have the definition of hospitalised, I have to investigate cases in my juridiction. Our definition is more then 24 hrs in emergency or admission on ward. But some hospitals, they admit everybody after 4 hrs and later discharged them... So what is a real hospitalisation....

We also follow the number of visit in the emergency, the number of call for flu in our medical 24hrs phone services. We do have all the death from flu or pneumonia in the last 24hrs by hospital. Those numbers haven't moved yet. But md on the first line, mostly pediatrician tell us that they see more influanza cases then in the middle of january to year ago ( before vaccination of 0 to 2 years old). I wouldn't bet on a calm summer yet.

The only number who is realiable, is death... And the only graph that will give you a real sense of what going on is new death by week. And that seem to go up...

wtb
 
Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

WTB said:
..........
The only number who is realiable, is death... And the only graph that will give you a real sense of what going on is new death by week. And that seem to go up...

wtb
Click to expand...

#6 on the list...

Specific changes/outcomes to watch for:

1 - non-response to anti-viral therapy (one or more)

2 - increase in cases without underlying medical conditions

3 - more credible "leaks" from HCW that conflict with mild "official" statements

4 - increase in % of cases with serious illness

5 - quicker progression to severe disease and death

6 - increase in death rates

7 - death clusters
Click to expand...


http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=110649

.
 
Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

There is a time-lapse between the initial detection of influenza H1N1 and the death report because patients could stay in hospital for weeks before the fatal outcome.

If the overall number of probable/confirmed cases can double - for example - in a month, the same cumulative number of deaths cases will double with a delay of some weeks.

So, the ''sudden'' increase in deaths cases is not unexpected.

We remain without reliable data about case-fatality rate, at this point.

We need:

-- the total number of hospitalized patients;
-- % of these patients in ICU;
-- % of the ICU patients under ventilators;
-- % of the ICU patients under ventilator discharged;
-- % of the ICU patients with bacterial superinfection (eg: intubation pneumonia, P aureginosa...)
-- time on ventilators and outcome;
-- age and co-morbidity;
-- treatment regimen;

If we want to calculate a decent CFR these information should be actively researched or obtained.

It is no longer acceptable a delay in knowledge of these vital informations.
 
Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

it's not so important how they define hospitalitation, as long as
they stick with the definition and don't change it from week to week.

Mainly we want to see the trend, not the absolute numbers
 
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