CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

[pflu]

Here is a chart of the CDC hospitalizations by date which shows a continual increase in the rate. The numbers are cumulative and the underlying data is below, these figures were all taken from the CDC briefings.

Here is the underlying data...

2-May 13
3-May 30
4-May 35
7-May 42
8-May 57
9-May 104
12-May 116
15-May 173
18-May 200
20-May 247
22-May 300
28-May 507
4-Jun 770
11-Jun 1000
18-Jun 1600


On may 26th the CDC hinted at a peak...

"In the country as a whole, the influenza-like illness patterns are starting to decrease. There are still focal areas where ongoing cases and new hospital consolidations are a daily problem but in many parts of the country influenza-like illness is returning back down to the levels that we would expect for this time of year."

http://www.cdc.gov/media/transcripts/2009/t090526.htm



At today's briefing they walked away from that language...

"As the summer is approaching, influenza season has normally ended by now. However, the novel H1N1 influenza transmission continues in the United States"

http://www.cdc.gov/media/transcripts/2009/t090618.htm


You can't tell what the story is by looking at case counts anymore, but it seems apparent from the hospitalization numbers and the CDC language that the rate of infection has continued to increase nationwide and is doing so well outside of the official flu season.

 

[Lizw]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

Here is a chart of the CDC hospitalizations by date which shows a continual increase in the rate. The numbers are cumulative and the underlying data is below, these figures were all taken from the CDC briefings.

Wonder if our second wave is arriving early . . .

 

[gsgs]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

set it in relation to the amount of ILI around.

They claim ILI were decreasing, so are cases getting more severe ?

 

[The Mountains Voice]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

Here is the underlying data...

You can't tell what the story is by looking at case counts anymore, but it seems apparent from the hospitalization numbers and the CDC language that the rate of infection has continued to increase nationwide and is doing so well outside of the official flu season.

:applause:
That's awesome work PFLU!

As everyone probably knows - I've been pushing the theory that we are hitting the leading edge of exponential growth explosion of cases. This chart backs this up. As you so aptly pointed out - they were talking "Peak" weeks ago, but the chart clearly shows that this was not the case.

 

[pflu]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

gsgs,

Interesting point and a possibility.

Or is ILI decreasing because season flu is going away while novel h1n1 is hanging around?

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

How does this compare to the hospitalization rate at the beginning of a seasonal outbreak?

.

 

[wotan]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

Wonder if our second wave is arriving early . . .

Obviously I don't know, but we do seem to be seeing an increase in deaths in younger, healthy individuals. Also the shear number of deaths "feels" like it is increasing. Of course some of that could be due to the increase in overall number of case and not due to an increase in the lethality.

 

[the doctor]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

I think we are seeing the peak of our first wave now. If so, it should rapidly fall off in July. Lets hope so.

GW

 

[hongkonger]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

I would like to think that this is the peak and cases will soon fall, but I just don't understand why they should. The virus seems to be comfortable in all kinds of weather -- maybe the extremes of heat in Texas and Florida might be slowing it down, but there are plenty of more temperate places for it to spread over the summer. It surely is not going to peak now because it has already infected a significant proportion of susceptible people -- there are too many areas where it has yet to make a significant impact. Possibly it has already infected enough New Yorkers to slow up infection rates there (though I am not at all sure of that), but the rest of the country is wide open. Surely it has not infected more than 1% of the population of the U.S. If there are good reasons for optimism, even in the short term, I'd really like to hear them. I'm not a biologist and I'm just doing the best I can to try to understand what factors might affect the spread of a virus.

 

[JimO]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

If 1% have been infected, that would be over 3 million cases. Based on the numbers, I would guess that it's less than 0.1%. I'd be surprised if 3 million have even been exposed. I really hope we're near the peak, but with testing largely being curtailed except for serious cases, the reduction in reported cases might be giving a false impression that it isn't spreading further.

 

[The Mountains Voice]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

I think we are seeing the peak of our first wave now. If so, it should rapidly fall off in July. Lets hope so.

GW

I'm not so sure. I have very conflicting opinions on this. I think we're seeing some very hot weather in spots, and you have to wonder at what point this peters out. The CDC report due out tomorrow will probably tell us nothing. Deaths will jump. Hospitalizations will jump. But we already know that.

My thought is to see what happens between now and next Friday's report - because we are starting to see some of the really hotter weather coming in. But I do think that if it does hit a "temperature wall" so to speak - I'm not sure that this correlates to a complete die out. It may be that it just takes off in another area that is more accomodating. Sort of like they have rolling power blackouts.... we may have rolling infection waves - geographically following the cool spots.

One interesting factor I do not see discussed much in this comparison context to historical pandemics - is the modern travel factor. We've NEVER had a pandemic with this level of social mobility.

I think it goes without saying that the Southern Hemisphere continues to gain momentum (imo). It could very well be that the flu simply hitchikes a ride to a Northern Hemisphere region temporarily downshifting to a mild temperature week. The flu takes off - then dies as a hotspell hits, but as it dies out - another downshifting region gets another visitor.

THAT realy disturbs me in regards to this CDC / Utah type media blackouts. Something like that would keep interest lower, easier for the Powers That Be to keep sweeping it under the rug as it just keeps jumping locales.

But anyway, that is something that is growing in me - the fact that we might be headed for a long drawn out rolling wave effect - until Fall.

 

[hongkonger]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

I agree that there are more likely 0.1% infected than 1%. I only said "surely there are not more than 1% infected" to err on the safe side and convey my point that the flu is not likely to have infected enough people to cause it to slow down on that basis.

 

[hongkonger]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

The Mountain's Voice -- yes, that seems very likely to me.

 

[gsgs]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

CDC maintains a secret list of hospitalizations ?
shouldn't it be somewhere on their webpage ?

 

[The Mountains Voice]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

CDC maintains a secret list of hospitalizations ?
shouldn't it be somewhere on their webpage ?

I've never found it. Almost the only time I see the number of hospitalizations mentioned - is in random statements. So they've obviously got data available for reference.

 

[JimO]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

I agree that there are more likely 0.1% infected than 1%. I only said "surely there are not more than 1% infected" to err on the safe side and convey my point that the flu is not likely to have infected enough people to cause it to slow down on that basis.

It's interesting to look at the number of infections in clusters where it has really taken hold. Milwaukee, for example, has reported over 2,600 cases. If the CDC's estimate of actual cases being at least 20x the confirmed cases, then there have probably been over 50,000 infected there, which is 5.4% of the City's population. It will be interesting to see if the infection rate continues to increase there and how that compares with seasonal flu infection rates. The result could indicate how it will spread in other communities.

NYC has estimated that up to 0.5 million people have had the flu, which is 6.1% of the population. Their case count is lower than Milwaukee because they have not been testing as aggressively, but again, it will be interesting to see if the infection rate increases over the coming months.

As an aside, I believe that Harvard is doing a study in Milwaukee, which is probably why they are still testing cases that are not strictly hospitalizations or deaths.

 

[Desolation_anonymous]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

Perhaps I don't understand virus replication well enough, as far as temperatures inside living bodies and outside and the such, but can someone please explain to me how, if the optimal replication rate for this flu is the temperature of a bird (41 degrees celcius = 105.8 degrees fahrenheit) hotter temperatures are supposed to slow down the spread? I know that typically temperatures with hotter weather bring less dry conditions (theories as to why flu and colds spread so well in winter- cold weather somehow =dry air), is this why, or am I missing something?

Would areas like where I live, where temperatures during summer range 90-116 degrees, theoretically see a decrease, even though our weather is always very, very dry, even in summer?

 

[pflu]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

I added the data from the Director Brief's which adds additional reported case dates and refines the last 1600 figure which was actually 1627 from June 11th.

underlying data...

2-May 13
3-May 30
4-May 35
7-May 42
8-May 57
9-May 104
12-May 116
15-May 173
19-May 229
20-May 247
21-May 249
22-May 302
25-May 317
27-May 426
28-May 507
2-Jun 716
4-Jun 770
5-Jun 1027
11-Jun 1621

 

[The Mountains Voice]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

underlying data...

Don't know where you found the hospitalization numbers - but the chart looks ugly...... like the leading edge of an exponential curve.

 

[JimO]

Re: CDC Reported Hospitalizations Rate Increasing

Don't know where you found the hospitalization numbers - but the chart looks ugly...... like the leading edge of an exponential curve.

It's hard to find hospitalization numbers on the state health department sites and I've been trying to track it over that past week. With only 14 states providing numbers, I have a total of 1,393 as of last night. That doesn't include most of NY (only the City and Onondoga County have numbers), WI (with the highest cases), TX, PA, MI, IL, NJ, VA, FL and others. I wouldn't be surprised if the hospitalization numbers are 1.5 to 2 times the number from June 11th.