case-count discussion

[gsgs]

first post for the updates only


weekly : http://magictour.free.fr/whoe41b.GIF


daily,Sierra Leone, regions: http://magictour.free.fr/RSLCFM1.GIF


Liberia daily new cases (suspected + probable)
week ending

Oct.19,
Oct.26,231
Nov.02,278
Nov.09,295
Nov.17,267=47+50+47+42+20+39+22
Nov.23,207=44+17+36+40+37+26+7
Nov.30,195=25+33+28+34+32+11+32
Dec.07,192=34+28+36+22+45+17+10
Dec.14,160=35+30+22+22+26+15+10
Dec.21,

 

[gsgs]

Re: case-count discussion

there had been a big increase in cases on Nov.08 and Nov.09

this could be partly due to a new "method" of counting

more cumulative cases than old ones plus new cases

unusual increase also in suspected cases since Nov08

no more situation reports

maybe they are just overwhelmed ?!


new "military phase"
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=229913


HCW bonus payment announcement on 2014/11/13:
http://health.gov.sl/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Press-Release-20141113.pdf


the death-counts are very low as compared to the case-counts.
Some time ago this was partly "corrected" with a big increase
on one day. Would this be expected again ? Why don't they
count deaths ? Or is it really less letal in Sierra Leone ?


there is also some increase of cases and counting-irregularities
in Guinea and Liberia (missing/delayed reports, numbers don't
add up etc.)


could it be weather (rain?) ? [high temp., no rain, afaics]
increased movement due to harvest,holidays ?
resistence to new policy ?


----------
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=230099

Cidrap writes of 111 cases, but in reality counts went up by 203 on Oct08

----------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30019895
Ebola crisis: Sierra Leone health workers go on strike
The clinic, in Bandajuma near Bo is run by MSF, which said it would be forced
to close the facility if the strike continued.
Ewald Stars said that 60 patients were involved

300 new cases in the past 3 days
>400 HCWs on strike (--> 6.7 HCWs per patient ?! )

 

[gsgs]

Re: case-count discussion

big decline in Sierra Leone numbers, Dec.06
[since Dec.04]


http://magictour.free.fr/RSLCFM1.GIF




daily ebola cases in Sierra Leone 2014/08/13-2014/12/10
(sum of suspected,probable and confirmed cases)


10,13,13,12,02,57,03,-8,11,53,28,31,25,07,30,30,22,51,-3,39,35
31,43,26,48,15,19,35,31,42,45,07,52,48,10,40,38,22,63,64,27,54
71,28,29,59,109,90,35,38,44,48,155,57,51,102,13,64,48,125,65,44,114
39,59,52,64,82,44,91,55,67,54,113,70,130,62,36,59,124,75,73,62,43
52,46,59,203,144,126,92,96,107,115,66,103,64,53,71,130,69,75,64,115,88
109,110,88,117,86,108,131,84,41,78,44,99,58,59,55

MA= moving average = average of the last 3,7,21 days



testing is being increased, see the decreasing positives-ratio
http://magictour.free.fr/sld4.GIF

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: case-count discussion

Maybe the Sierra Leone numbers are down because pockets of infection are not counted?

From: WorldHealthOrganizationNews@who.int
To: undisclosed-recipients@null, null@null
Subject: MEDIA RELEEASE: WHO: "Sierra Leone reacts swiftly in the face of desperate need"
Date: Dec 10, 2014 1:04 PM
WHO: ?Sierra Leone reacts swiftly in the face of desperate need ?

Freetown ? 10 December 2014 - Racing to fact check an ominous spike in Ebola cases from the remote diamond district of Kono in eastern Sierra Leone, bordering Guinea, a World Health Organization rapid response team found a worse-than-expected scene. WHO and the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) joined forces with the Sierra Leone National Ebola Response Center (NERC) and Ministry of Health and Sanitation (MoHS) to sound the alarm and are now rallying all-comers in a massive build up to contain this burgeoning Ebola outbreak which ran the risk of continuing to grow and remaining hidden as world attention focuses on urban centers.

?Our team met heroic doctors and nurses at their wits end, exhausted burial teams and lab techs, all doing the best they could but they simply ran out of resources and were overrun with gravely ill people,? explains Dr Olu Olushayo, WHO National Coordinator, Ebola Epidemic Response. ?In districts like Kono, with moderate transmission confined to limited villages and chiefdoms, the best chance of eliminating transmission is through aggressive and comprehensive case investigation and contact tracing,? he said. Scattered villages in 8 of the 15 chiefdoms are affected.

Reacting on intel from the Ministry of Health of Sierra Leone, WHO sent a seasoned field epidemiologist to Kono 10 days ago to tease out whether reported Ebola cases told the whole story.

Cases go unreported for a variety of reasons and are exacerbated when overwhelmed and under-resourced frontline workers are unable to reach remote areas to get the truth from reluctant villagers. The surveillance officers had no vehicles. WHO and CDC quickly sent more investigators and rugged trucks.

They uncovered a grim scene. In 11 days, 2 teams buried 87 bodies, including a nurse, an ambulance driver, and a janitor drafted into removing bodies as they piled up at the only area hospital, ill-equipped to deal with the dangerous pathogen. In the 5 days before the team arrived, 25 people died in the hastily cordoned off section of the main hospital serving as a makeshift Ebola holding center.

As of 9 December 2014, this district of over 350 000 people officially has 119 reported cases. Upon hearing the WHO findings, Dr. Amara Jambai, MoHS Director of Disease Prevention and Control harkened a local saying to describe what remains yet to be discovered, "we are only seeing the ears of the hippo."

Help is arriving daily. The NERC and MoHS for the Government of Sierra Leone and UNMEER with WHO support are connecting ready-to-help partners with an all-out multi-agency response to critical needs on the ground. WHO field staff are sharing their expertise with surveillance investigators, community mobilizers, infection controllers, and coordinators. The doctors from Partners in Health and Wellbody Alliance who supported the overwhelmed holding center, are willing to stay on board to support care at the source in outlying health posts. The International Federation of the Red Cross will build a new Ebola Treatment Center on a tight timetable, while they disinfect the hospital with MoHS and create a temporary safe holding unit. The IFRC Kenema Ebola Treatment Center will take Kono patients until these solutions are in place. CDC has staff on the ground. UNMEER has lent it?s helicopters to the effort in support of the UN family (WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA, WFP, and others) engaged in building up capacity for staff and volunteers through training, materials and logistical support. International Rescue Committee is supporting infection prevention activities in the district. Funders such as DIFD and USAID are making much of the fast response possible. The race is on in this frontier fight against the virus, as Ebola responders dash to get ahead of the epidemic rather than chasing its tail.


For further information please contact:

Winnie Romeril
Spokesperson, WHO Country Office in Sierra Leone
Email: romerilw@who.int
Phone: +23278335660

 

[gsgs]

Re: case-count discussion

they had these pockets before. I think reporting is improving, see the increase of lab-tests,
of negatives. And the numbers are currently dominated by what
happens in Freetown (WAU)

 

[gsgs]

Re: case-count discussion

increase in the last few days again in WAU and Port Loko

the downtrend since Dec.04 should still be intact


further decrease last week in Liberia (192-->160)


weekly : http://magictour.free.fr/whoe41b.GIF


daily,Sierra Leone, regions: http://magictour.free.fr/RSLCFM1.GIF



since Dec.04:
Port Loko:20,10,2,6,5,6,8,10,7,0,20,26,22
WAU:8,15,9,25,14,11,10,18,15,30,27,18,18

 

[gsgs]

81 cumulative cases in Kissidougou,Guinea on Dec.22 , after 18 cumulative ones on Dec.14

WHO-report:
24 December 2014
http://apps.who.int/ebolaweb/sitreps...4/20141224.pdf

...
GUINEA
A total of 156 confirmed cases were reported in Guinea during the week to 21 December (figure 1), the highest weekly case incidence reported by the country in this outbreak. This is largely due to a surge in cases in the south-eastern district of Kissidougou, which reported 58 confirmed cases – one-third of cases reported in the country in the past week. The district has previously reported no more than 5 cases each week. This emphasizes the need for continuing vigilance in case management, safe burial practices and social mobilization, to prevent outbreaks in areas previously experiencing little or no transmission.

--------------------------------------------
http://magictour.free.fr/gui3c1.GIF

 

[gsgs]

unusual increase in Kono district in Sierra Leone, on Dec.25 and Dec.26
http://magictour.free.fr/RSLCFM1.GIF