Re: Canada expects human BF 3 months!
this may be it....
http://www.stthomastimesjournal.com/story.php?id=227231
Cautious eyes on avian flu
Expected in Canada within three months
[SIZE=-2]Thursday April 27, 2006,b[/SIZE]y Patrick Brennan
Times-Journal Staff
The warning to health officials was clear Wednesday to those attending a seminar at St. Thomas-Elgin General Hospital --
avian flu is likely to begin affecting Canada within three months and, when it hits, at least one-third of the population is expected to be ill.
That was the
message from Dr. Susan Tamblyn, one of Canada's leading experts on infectious diseases. She was one of two speakers at a seminar sponsored by the Elgin-St. Thomas Health Unit.
Avian flu, described as a pandemic strain because it migrates around the world, is proving to be a stubborn flu for the health community to attack.
Half of those who are sick will need medical care and one (???)per cent of those cases (55 people in a city the size of St. Thomas) will require hospitalization, she said.
"We're
going to see it in Canada within the next three months," Tamblyn predicted. Increased air travel with people travelling routinely around the world increases the chance of this occurring, she said.
Birds carrying the disease are the most common threat. But one worry is that the number of host species spreading the disease has expanded to include mammals, including cats.
Poultry, already slaughtered in record numbers in other countries to try to stop the spread of the disease, are potentially at risk.
"When something like this affects birds, there are questions from veterinarians and farmers," she said.
Avian flu could spread between people by coughing and sneezing, like other strains. Contaminated hands could also be an issue and one small area that will get special emphasis when the health unit issues advice is safe disposal of used tissues.
The potential effect on local and regional economies from people being home sick is serious, and Tamblyn suggested school closures might be necessary.
Canada mapped out a plan in 2004 to deal with the crisis and it is already set to be updated.
While
the strategy is to vaccinate all Canadians, it will take four to six months to get enough vaccine.
Scott Davis, pandemic planner for the Elgin-St. Thomas Health Unit, said an Elgin-St. Thomas advisory group has been formed. Some of the members include Ministry of Health representatives, emergency service representatives and local doctors.
Officials were meeting with local doctors Wednesday evening.
As for an historical reference, there have been pandemics reported in 1918, 1957 and 1968.
If a pandemic hits Elgin-St. Thomas
hard, there could be logistical problems. An influx would potentially occupy 48 per cent of the St. Thomas-Elgin General Hospital's general bed capacity and an alarming 151 per cent of the beds in intensive care.
Davis warned
some of the medical supplies needed for a crisis might be held up at the Canada/U.S. border.
Comparisons between the avian bird flu and SARS are popular, but not accurate, Tamblyn said
"
SARS was a hospital disease," she said. "
Influenza is a community disease. It's out there."
.
