Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

Treyfish · May 13, 2010

<STYLE>.play-btn-box350x197 {position:relative;width:350px;height:197px;}.play-btn-box350x197 .play-btn {position:absolute;width:78px;height:48px;top:74px;left:136px;background:url(http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/mmedia/images/player/play-button-med.png) no-repeat;_background:none;_filter

rogid

XImageTransform.Microsoft.AlphaImageLoader(src=http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/mmedia/images/player/play-button-med.png,sizingMethod=scale);cursor

ointer;}.play-btn-box350x197 a {position:absolute;top:0;left:0;}.play-btn-box350x197 b {display:none;}</STYLE>

Video

Video of Gulf of Mexico oil leak from ocean floor
Video shows main oil leak from end of riser at BP well in Gulf of Mexico. The second part shows the containment dome being lowered into place.

<TABLE style="FLOAT: right; CLEAR: both" id=content_column_table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=238><TBODY><TR><TD width=10></TD><TD width=228><!-- use this image if logged in

-->

View More Activity

<SCRIPT type=text/javascript>try{wpTiles.init('nn_sidebar')}catch(e){}</SCRIPT>

Interactive Map

Gulf Coast oil spill map

Get a status update on the location of the oil slick, areas closed to fishing and oyster harvesting, endangered areas and much more with our oil spill map.

<LINK rel=stylesheet href="http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/css/sidebars.css" media=all><LINK rel=stylesheet href="http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/css/graphics.css" media=all>
<SCRIPT src="http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/article/js/storyPageTools.js"></SCRIPT>

Graphic

Flaws in the oil well

View a graphic that shows what went wrong with BPs oil well, according to the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

<LINK rel=stylesheet href="http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/css/commentslinks.css" media=all><SCRIPT type=text/javascript src="http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/javascript/commentsUtils.js"></SCRIPT><SCRIPT type=text/javascript src="http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/javascript/community/startup.js"></SCRIPT><SCRIPT></SCRIPT><STYLE>#ArticleCommentsWrapper {display:block};</STYLE><SCRIPT type=text/javascript></SCRIPT><SCRIPT type=text/javascript src="http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/javascript/community/sldisplay6.js"></SCRIPT>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>By Joel Achenbach
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, May 13, 2010; 12:47 PM

The world has finally seen directly the turbulent plume of oil, gas and water billowing from a sliced steel pipe on the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico. But new video clips, released by BP Wednesday afternoon, haven't clarified one of the central unknowns in this crisis: Exactly how much oil is leaking into the gulf?

Video of Gulf of Mexico oil leak from ocean floor

<SCRIPT></SCRIPT><SCRIPT src="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/13/AR2010051302563_StoryJs.js?3878633005"></SCRIPT>It's clearly a lot -- anyone can see that. But experts say that, without a meter, it's impossible to estimate the flow, particularly since it's a mixture of oil, gas and water.
"Anybody who can tell you how much oil is coming out of that thing is likely lying to you," Bruce Bullock, director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist University, said after reviewing the video.
But BP could use established scientific methods to measure the flow if it chose to do so, said Rich Camilli, an oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. One technique, for example, would use sonar in a manner quite similar to sonograms used in medical diagnostics, he said. Or BP could use the containment dome that was lowered to the sea bottom as a kind of measuring device.
"More information is always better. Right now there's only a very sketchy idea as to what the flow rates are. It's important to have very accurate numbers, if nothing else to scale the response for the oil slick," Camilli said.
The oil slick on the surface of the gulf is a moving target for scientists trying to estimate the rate of oil leaking 5,000 feet below. The slick has changed sizes in heavy seas. There is an unknown amount of oil below the surface. And as of mid-week the slick had been pounded with 428,000 gallons of chemical dispersants dropped from a fleet of aircraft, BP spokesman Andrew Gowers said. Another 28,000 gallons of chemicals have attacked the plume at the sea floor in three "tests" of deep sea chemicals, Gowers said.
This oil is on the lighter end of the density scale, Gowers said.
"It's not thick, heavy crude that goes glop. It's light crude that when it reaches the surface of the water, it's more like iced tea," he said.
The official number for the rate of oil leaking is 5,000 barrels a day. The figure, announced April 28 by the Coast Guard, is a National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration estimate, based on aerial imagery and scrutiny of video from the sea bottom.
But officials have repeatedly tried to back away from the suspiciously round figure. Jane Lubchenco, the NOAA administrator, told The Post that the estimate should be considered "5,000 barrels-ish."
The round figure has been called a "guesstimate" by BP's chief executive officer, Tony Hayward.
Two weeks ago, an outside researcher, oceanographer Ian MacDonald of Florida State University, used satellite images gathered by the organization SkyTruth to produce an estimate of 26,000 barrels of oil a day. But MacDonald has made clear that it's a rough estimate and hasn't been subjected to scientific peer review.
"I shouldn't be trying to estimate these flow rates in the media; we should be trying to do this in scientific papers," he said.

The oil drilling rig Deepwater Horizon suffered a blowout April 20 and, after burning for two days, sank to the bottom of the gulf. The Coast Guard initially said that the oil slick at the surface was from the rig itself, and Rear Adm. Mary Landry said there was no sign of a leak from the well itself. On April 24, two leaks were found by robotic submarines, and the Coast Guard estimated the leak at 1,000 barrels a day. Four days later, another, smaller leak was discovered, and Landry announced the higher estimate of 5,000 barrels.

News organizations, scientists and environmental groups asked BP to make public the video of the main leak, which comes from a pipe called the riser, about 460 feet from the blowout preventer that sits atop the wellhead. BP complied Wednesday with two short video clips, one showing the pipe spewing oil and gas, the other capturing the moment when a containment dome was lowered onto the leak in an abortive effort to capture the oil. The dome quickly clogged with slushy methane hydrates, formed by the mixture of pressurized gas and cold water.
Greg McCormack, director of the Petroleum Extension Service at the University of Texas, said the one revelation in the new video is the abundant gas that can clearly be seen spewing from the pipe in tandem with the darker oil. That might be a good sign, he said.
"If this was an all-oil well, you'd have a lot more oil flowing into the environment. Gas getting into that atmosphere is not the greatest thing, but it's a lot better than getting oil into the environment."
MacDonald, meanwhile, thinks BP should make more video public and enable the world's researchers to eyeball more fully the plumes of oil and gas.
"We're fighting a battle against this spill, this leak. Any military person knows that good casualty reports are the key to victory," MacDonald said.
Asked why the video hadn't been released earlier, BP chief operating officer Doug Suttles suggested that the technicians fighting the leak had been too busy to take the time to prepare the imagery for public scrutiny.
"This data is not easy to capture," Suttles said. "We actually have to assign some of our technicians to gather that data."

Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry said the government has had access to the video in real time, but indicated that it was up to BP whether the video could be made public. "It's BP's video," she said. :tiphat:http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/w...13/AR2010051302563.html?sid%3DST2010051302565

Pathfinder · May 14, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

Size of Oil Spill Underestimated, Scientists Say </NYT_HEADLINE>

<NYT_BYLINE>By JUSTIN GILLIS

</NYT_BYLINE>Published: May 13, 2010

Two weeks ago, the government put out a round estimate of the size of the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico: 5,000 barrels a day. Repeated endlessly in news reports, it has become conventional wisdom.

But scientists and environmental groups are raising sharp questions about that estimate, declaring that the leak must be far larger. They also criticize BP for refusing to use well-known scientific techniques that would give a more precise figure.

The criticism escalated on Thursday, a day after the release of a video that showed a huge black plume of oil gushing from the broken well at a seemingly high rate. BP has repeatedly claimed that measuring the plume would be impossible.

The figure of 5,000 barrels a day was hastily produced by government scientists in Seattle. It appears to have been calculated using a method that is specifically not recommended for major oil spills.

Ian R. MacDonald, an oceanographer at Florida State University who is an expert in the analysis of oil slicks, said he had made his own rough calculations using satellite imagery. They suggested that the leak could ?easily be four or five times? the government estimate, he said.

?The government has a responsibility to get good numbers,? Dr.
MacDonald said. ?If it?s beyond their technical capability, the whole world is ready to help them.?

Scientists said that the size of the spill was directly related to the amount of damage it would do in the ocean and onshore, and that calculating it accurately was important for that reason.

BP has repeatedly said that its highest priority is stopping the leak, not measuring it. ?There?s just no way to measure it,? Kent Wells, a BP senior vice president, said in a recent briefing.

Yet for decades, specialists have used a technique that is almost tailor-made for the problem. With undersea gear that resembles the ultrasound machines in medical offices, they measure the flow rate from hot-water vents on the ocean floor. Scientists said that such equipment could be tuned to allow for accurate measurement of oil and gas flowing from the well.

Richard Camilli and Andy Bowen, of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, who have routinely made such measurements, spoke extensively to BP last week, Mr. Bowen said. They were poised to fly to the gulf to conduct volume measurements.

But they were contacted late in the week and told not to come, at around the time BP decided to lower a large metal container to try to capture the leak. That maneuver failed. They have not been invited again.

?The government and BP are calling the shots, so I will have to respect their judgment,? Dr. Camilli said.

BP did not respond Thursday to a question about why Dr. Camilli and Mr. Bowen were told to stand down. Speaking more broadly about the company?s policy on measuring the leak, a spokesman, David H. Nicholas, said in an e-mail message that ?the estimated rate of flow would not affect either the direction or scale of our response, which is the largest in history.?

Much more at:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/14/us/14oil.html

Pathfinder · May 14, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

Purdue Professor Says Oil Leaking Ten Times Current Estimates

<SCRIPT language=JavaScript type=text/javascript> function hideCompanion(){ var adDiv = document.getElementById("player_companion"); adDiv.setAttribute("class", "hide"); adDiv.setAttribute("className", "hide"); adDiv.innerHTML = ""; } function showCompanion(){ var adDiv = document.getElementById("player_companion"); adDiv.setAttribute("class", "show"); adDiv.setAttribute("className", "show"); } </SCRIPT><SCRIPT src="http://www.wwltv.com/includes/swfobject.js" type=text/javascript></SCRIPT>
<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> if((navigator.userAgent.match(/iPhone/i)) || (navigator.userAgent.match(/iPod/i)) || (navigator.userAgent.match(/iPad/i))) { document.getElementById('flashUpgrade').style.display = "none"; document.write("<img src=\"http://media.wwltv.com/images/051410howmuch.jpg\" width=\"470\" height=\"288\">") } else { // <![CDATA[ var bimso = new SWFObject("http://media.wwltv.com/designvideo/bimVideoPlayer20100412b.swf", "BIMvidPlayer", "470", "288", "9.0.115.0", "#000000"); bimso.useExpressInstall('http://media.wwltv.com/designvideo/expressinstall.swf'); bimso.addParam("wmode", "opaque"); bimso.addParam("AllowScriptAccess", "always"); bimso.addParam("AllowFullScreen", "true"); bimso.addVariable("videoId", "93816554"); bimso.addVariable("mediaXML", "http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wwltv.com%2Fnews%2Flocal%2FPurdue-Professor-Says-Oil-Leaking-Ten-Times-Current-Estimates-93816554.html%3Fxml%3Dv"); bimso.addVariable("pageURL", "http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wwltv.com%2Fnews%2Flocal%2FPurdue-Professor-Says-Oil-Leaking-Ten-Times-Current-Estimates-93816554.html"); bimso.addVariable("overlayhide", "false"); bimso.addVariable("autostart", "false"); bimso.addVariable("share", "true"); bimso.addVariable("themeColor", "303030"); bimso.addVariable("DartCompanion300x250", "yes"); bimso.addVariable("dartCompanionRemove", "yes"); bimso.addVariable("videoPlayerId", "flashcontent"); bimso.addVariable("companionId", "player_companion"); bimso.addVariable("zid", "bi.wwltv"); bimso.addVariable("adaptag", "/news/local"); bimso.addVariable("adKey", "broadcastinteractivemedia"); bimso.addVariable("omnitureRun", "belo"); bimso.addVariable("omnitureId", "biwwltvcom"); bimso.addVariable("omnitureDomain", "wwltv.com"); bimso.write("flashcontent"); // ]]> } </SCRIPT>
by Paul Murphy / Eyewitness News
wwltv.com
Posted on May 14, 2010 at 6:05 PM

NEW ORLEANS - BP says oil is leaking about 210,000 gallons a day at the wreckage of the Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico.

"The two things we know is what we see on the video and then what we can measure on the surface," said BP Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles. "We think that's a reasonable estimate, but it's highly uncertain."

A Purdue University researcher says that estimate is too low.

Associate professor of mechanical engineering Steven Wereley told National Public Radio, based on his analysis of the video of the leak, it may actually be gushing more than 2.9-million gallons per day.

"We're talking more than a factor of 10 difference between what I calculate and the number that's being thrown around," said Wereley.
Eric Smith, associate director of Tulane University's Energy Institute brushed off Wereley's numbers.

"I guess I would have to say that I put less stock in that sort of a comment based on two hours of analysis by one guy," said Smith.

Massachusetts Congressman Ed Markey launched a formal inquiry into how much oil is now leaking into the Gulf.

Friday, President Barack Obama said since there's a level of uncertainty, the government's response has always been geared toward the possibility of a catastrophic event.

He also said, "What really matters is this, there's oil leaking and we need to stop it and we need to stop it as soon as possible."

BP now says it could take at least another week to contain the leak.

The company also says the only way to stop the leak, is to drill a relief well and that could take another two months to complete.

http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/Pur...ing-Ten-Times-Current-Estimates-93816554.html

Pathfinder · May 15, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

Key spill size issue: How much and does it matter?

By SETH BORENSTEIN AND CAIN BURDEAU 
Associated Press writers 
Published: May 14, 2010 - UPDATED: 6:25 p.m.

NEW ORLEANS (AP) -- Just how much oil is spewing from the ruptured well in the Gulf of Mexico and how important is it to know that? Experts can't agree on either question.

Some scientists who have studied a new video of the gusher estimate the leak could be 14 times worse than the government says. The feds say stopping the spill, not measuring it, is key.

But does the size matter now anyway?

Many veteran spill experts say trying to figure out how much oil is spewing is like trying to assess the damage of a house fire while firefighters are still trying to put it out. The size will matter later when the damage is tallied.

Others - especially lawyers, environmental advocates and the media - say numbers are needed to get a handle on how big the problem is. But a National Academy of Sciences report seven years ago said the size of a spill doesn't directly correlate to how bad the environmental damage is.

When BP, which owns the well, released a video Wednesday of the spewing oil, the whole magnitude of the problem seemed to change.

Soon after the explosion three weeks ago, the government said oil and gas were flowing from the seabed at a rate of 210,000 gallons - or 5,000 barrels - a day. Now, after viewing the video, some scientists calculate it at 2 million gallons a day or even higher.

But those estimates come with giant-sized asterisks. Because the video doesn't give experts a proper look, they could be off by millions of gallons of oil a day.

Still, most experts agree it is probably worse than the government acknowledges.

.../

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/93748084.html

Pathfinder · May 15, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

May 14, 2010

Must-see AC360° video: Oil spill worse than expected

Posted: 10:16 AM ET

Last night on AC360°, Anderson spoke with Purdue University professor Steve Wereley, who believes the oil spill leak is worse than expected. According to his calculations, the leak could be spilling more like 70,000 barrels per day, not the 5,000 barrels per day that had been estimated before. Watch the video here. Sound off in the comments below.

http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/category/gulf-oil-spill/

Pathfinder · May 20, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

Scientist: BP's Oil Spill Estimates Improbable

by Richard Harris

May 20, 2010

An independent scientist says the Gulf of Mexico oil spill appears to be even larger than he previously thought, based on analysis of a video released by the Senate. The video shows a dramatic gusher of oil coming from near the well's ill-fated blowout preventer.

Steve Wereley went from being a respected but little known engineering professor at Purdue University to being the center of attention last week after he produced a startling new estimate of the size of the spill. Using a well-established scientific technique to measure flow from the biggest of three leaks near the seafloor, he determined that the flow coming out of the end of the pipe could be 10 times the size of the official figure.

Wereley has now analyzed video of a second leak. At a hearing on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, he said that leak alone appears to be bigger than the official estimate of 5,000 barrels a day.

"What I get is 25,000 barrels a day coming out of that tiny hole ? that's a 1.2-inch hole," he said, adding that it seemed

"incomprehensible."

Wereley says the oil in this part of the pipe is under tremendous pressure. Add his current figure to last week's estimate of about 70,000 barrels a day, and his total approaches 100,000 barrels a day. And, there's another leak he has yet to analyze.

Wereley's flow rate includes both gas and oil, so he says his figures may come down once he sees enough video to be able to quantify the amount of gas.

"But from what I see in the videos, I don't see the numbers coming down that significantly," he says.

Measuring Oil Flow

Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA) called Wereley to talk to his House Energy subcommittee after noting the huge discrepancy between Wereley's numbers and BP's oft-quoted estimate, which is based on a survey of oil on the ocean surface.

Web Resources

Watch The BP Oil Video At Rep. Markey's Website



When asked Wednesday what the likelihood was that BP's figures were accurate, Wereley said he didn't see "any possibility, any scenario under which their number is accurate."

Wereley told the committee he would like clean video from BP ? and lots of it ? in order to sort out how much of the flow is oil versus gas and to figure out if the flow has varied since it began nearly a month ago.

BP has started to provide more video to a Senate committee. But the oil company rejected a plan that would have produced an independent measure of the oil flow.

Richard Camilli of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution told the committee that he and a colleague had offered to put together an instrument for BP that uses sound waves to measure underwater oil flow.

He said BP was interested for reasons related to broken equipment, not the environmental consequences. Camilli said he got an e-mail from BP at 3 a.m. May 5 essentially giving the thumbs up, but at 1 p.m. the next day, BP sent a message putting the project on hold.

BP said it was turning its attention to the containment dome, which was unsuccessful.

"Our team was thanked politely by BP representatives for our efforts, and
I've had no further communication with BP since May 6," Camilli said.
Camilli said he hoped to use the information about oil flow to help scientists measure the magnitude of a spill that's not only on the surface of the ocean but also spreading deep underwater. "Understanding and knowing the total amount of oil that has been released is going to be critical so that we know how much was on the surface, we know how much remains subsurface, and we can track it and attempt to mitigate it."

Priorities

BP's position all along has been that it is making an all-out effort to contain the spill, so putting a number on the outflow isn't a priority. Markey took issue with that.

"This faulty logic that BP is using, of course, is unfortunately raising real concerns that they are hiding the full extent of the potential damage of this leak," he said.

Markey scored one small victory Wednesday: The Coast Guard told him he could post BP's live video of the oil and gas spewing out of the pipe on his congressional website.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126975907

Pathfinder · May 20, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

Posted on Thu, May. 20, 2010 08:04 PM

Low oil spill estimate could save BP millions in court, experts say

By MARISA TAYLOR, RENEE SCHOOF AND ERIKA BOLSTAD

McClatchy Newspapers

Excerpt:

"BP and the Obama administration have said they don't want to take the measurements for fear of interfering with efforts to stop the leaks.

That decision, however, runs counter to BP's own regional plan for dealing with offshore leaks. "In the event of a significant release of oil," the 583-page plan says on Page 2, "an accurate estimation of the spill's total volume ... is essential in providing preliminary data to plan and initiate cleanup operations."

Legal experts said that not having a credible official estimate of the leak's size provides another benefit for BP: The amount of oil spilled is certain to be key evidence in the court battles that are likely to result from the disaster. The size of the Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska, for example, was a significant factor that the jury considered when it assessed damages against Exxon.

snip

Read more: http://www.kansascity.com/2010/05/20/1959836/low-oil-spill-estimate-could-save.html#ixzz0oWhu8I6J

Pathfinder · May 24, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

<SMALL>MAY 24, 2010, 5:27 P.M. ET</SMALL>

White House: New Estimate On Oil Spill May Come This Week

By Jared A. Favole Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The White House said Monday it may have new estimates this week about the size of the Gulf oil spill as the federal government and BP Plc (BP) face growing criticism for their response to a month-old oil disaster that continues to spit thousands of gallons of crude off the Louisiana coast.

The government and BP have said oil is spewing out of a well nearly a mile deep in the Gulf coast at a rate of 5,000 barrels a day, though scientists have said the rate could be several times higher. That estimate came into further question after BP said an insertion pipe was siphoning 5,000 barrels of oil a day but represented a fraction of the overall oil spilling out.

Government scientists are currently reviewing satellite imagery and videos of the disaster to determine the rate of oil gushing out and the overall amount that has spilled, U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Thad Allen said at a White House briefing. He said estimating the size of the spill is difficult because the well is nearly a mile deep and only robotic devices can operate safely at that depth.

He said the government's estimates will likely be a range rather than a hard and fast number. White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said the estimates will likely be completed this week.

Federal officials over the last several days have blasted BP for not getting the leak plugged and being transparent enough with information about the disaster. The Obama administration has also been under intense scrutiny amid mounting concerns that the government is giving too much leeway to BP to clean up the spill, despite its oversight role prescribed by law.

Adm. Allen said the federal government does have veto power over the way BP directs its resources and responds to the spill. When asked whether he has used that power, he said, "not a firm veto."

The federal government appears to be giving conflicting information about how it is working with BP to solve the disaster. U.S. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar over the weekend said the government would push BP out of the way if the company can't get the leak plugged, while the White House has repeatedly said the government doesn't have adequate equipment.

Allen said, "To push BP out of the way, it would raise the question to replace them with what."

Efforts to plug the leak have failed. Part of the problem, government and BP officials say, is that the well is nearly a mile below sea level. A pipe BP inserted near the leak is siphoning about 1,360 barrels of oil a day. BP was planning to attempt plugging the well Tuesday with heavy drilling fluids, but that is being delayed until Wednesday.

Allen said the government has worked with BP on a series of measures to plug the leak, starting with the least risky steps first. The ultimate solution, he said, is drilling relief wells. That work won't be done until August.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100524-712141.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

Pathfinder · May 27, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

Estimates revised upward for oil spill in Gulf

By Joel Achenbach and David A. Fahrenthold

Washington Post

Posted: 05/27/2010 07:24:29 PM PDT
Updated: 05/27/2010 07:24:30 PM PDT

Excerpt:

Even if the well is plugged this weekend, the spill already is of epic proportions. A task force, the Flow Rate Technical Group, made up of scientists from government and academia, has produced preliminary estimates that 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day have leaked into the Gulf, U.S. Geological Survey Director Marcia McNutt said Thursday.

The scale of the spill has been a matter of furious debate and speculation.

The Coast Guard initially pegged the spill at 1,000 barrels a day. Then, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration used satellite images of the spill to make an estimate of 5,000 barrels a day.

Government officials and BP executives repeated that figure for weeks, even as independent scientists came up with figures as high as 95,000 barrels a day.

There are 42 gallons in a barrel. Assuming that the leak began when the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig sank to the Gulf bottom April 22, and subtracting the amount of oil that BP said it has siphoned from the leaking pipe and pumped onto a barge, the new estimate would suggest that nearly 18 million gallons to 27 million gallons of oil have polluted the Gulf. of oil have polluted the Gulf.

The 1989 Exxon Valdez spill, by comparison, put 11 million gallons of oil along more than 1,000 miles of Alaska's coastline.

Interior Department spokesman Frank Quimby said scientists used multiple techniques. One took video of the plume of oil escaping from the pipe and fed it through computer models. The result was 12,000 to 25,000 barrels a day.

Another technique relied on a NASA plane that could differentiate oil from water on the Gulf surface. That produced an estimate of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day. A third method relied on measurements from the insertion tube that siphoned oil from the end of the riser. That produced an estimate of 12,000 barrels a day.

Also on Thursday, scientists from the University of South Florida reported the discovery in the Gulf of a "plume" of dissolved oil that was six miles wide and up to 20 miles long. The plume extended from the surface down to a depth of 3,200 feet.

The oil is entirely dissolved in the water, which appears clear, professor David Hollander said. That seemed to confirm the fears of some scientists that, because of the depth of the leak and the heavy use of chemical dispersants, this spill was behaving differently than others. Instead of floating on top of the water, it may be moving beneath it.

That could hamper containment efforts and would also be a problem for ecosystems deep under the Gulf. There, scientists say, the oil could be absorbed by tiny animals and enter a food chain that builds to sport fish such as red snapper. It might also glom on to deep coral formations.

http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_15178229?nclick_check=1

Traveller11 · May 30, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

I operate a small water system for a town of 500 people here in northern Canada. I would like to offer my observations as to the probable size of the Gulf oil leak using my experience dealing with low pressure leaks in water lines.

I had a leak in a mobile home park that eventually proved to be 135,000 liters/day or 35,714 US gallons. This figure was arrived at by subtracting the daily figure on the park's meter after the leak was repaired (2116 US gallons) from the daily figure while leaking (37,831 US gallons).

The leak was eventually isolated and proved to be in a 3/4" plastic underground line. Static pressure in the park's water system is 55 PSI. It is important to note that the mobile home being fed by the 3/4" line in question was still receiving water; albeit at a reduced pressure.

Not even allowing for the difference in pressure (I hear the Gulf leak is in the neighbourhood of 9,000 PSI as opposed to my 55 PSI) if one divides 210,000 by 35,714 we get the figure of 5.88. Are we to believe that my little water leak is 1/6th the size of the Gulf oil leak??? What kind of fools do they take us for?

Better yet, let's talk volume. It is common knowledge that doubling the diameter of a pipe quadruples the area. For example, a 1 1/2" pipe has four times the volume per foot that a 3/4" pipe has and a 3" pipe has 16 times the volume per foot of a 3/4" pipe.

Pi x radius squared = area of a circle

Therefore, 11.5 x 11.5 x 3.14 = 415.3 square inches in a 21" pipe (BP's)
In a 3/4" pipe, .375 x .375 x 3.14 = .44 square inches

415.3 divided by .44 = 944; this means that BP's 21 inch pipe has 944 times the volume per foot that my 3/4" line does.

If I'm leaking 35,714 US gallons per day at 55 PSI and my 3/4" pipe suddenly grew to 21" in diameter, I would be leaking 33,714,016 US gallons per day.

Even if the ratio was only 150:1, this would still be 5,357,100 US gallons per day. However, I strongly feel that the pressure from this oil leak is FAR in excess of 55 PSI and that the velocity of the leaking oil puts even my outrageous figures in the conservative category.

Well??

Ronan Kelly · May 30, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

Welcome, Traveller11, thank you for your insight. The last reading I saw for flow pressure was 480 atm. on Friday. Phenomenally huge pressures.

sharon sanders · May 30, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

Welcome, Traveller11!

Thank you for the insight.

Traveller11 · May 30, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

Thank you for the welcome, Roro and Ms. Saunders.
I'm not really trying to preach science to those more learned than myself; just thought it was time to bring in a little country common sense.

Bob

Sally Furniss · May 30, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

Welcome Traveller11 !

Sally Furniss · May 30, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

480 atmosphere [standard] = 7 054.056 121 9 pound/square inch

480 atmosphere [technical] = 6 827.204 800 5 pound/square inch

http://www.onlineconversion.com/pressure.htm

tropical · May 31, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

#6 news text:

""What I get is 25,000 barrels a day coming out of that tiny hole — that's a 1.2-inch hole," he said, adding that it seemed

"incomprehensible."

Wereley says the oil in this part of the pipe is under tremendous pressure. Add his current figure to last week's estimate of about 70,000 barrels a day, and his total approaches 100,000 barrels a day. And, there's another leak he has yet to analyze."
___

#6 -> correct - that's the experts cited worst estimates ammount daily:

~ 580,850 metric tons

but it stil seems not enaugh estimated,
if this is the big one spill until today,
compared to example, an previous spill:
475,000 metric tons (1979 (**))
http://www.mms.gov/alaska/reports/19...ms88_0049a.pdf

___

#59:
"On June 3, 1979, an exploratory well about 80 km northwest of Cuidad de Carmen blew out. By the time the well was capped 290 days later on March 23, 1980, about 475,000 metric tons(**) of oil had been lost ..."

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_gallons_in_a_barrel_of_oil

42 gallons (1 U.S. gallon = 3.78541178 liters)in a barrel

than:
4,200,000 GAL/DAY = 100,000 barrels/day
___

From:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=145880

Re: Deepwater Horizon oil spill disaster- Update on BP's attempt to stop the oil leaks <hr style="color: rgb(204, 204, 204); background-color: rgb(204, 204, 204);" size="1">  
#59:

at experts worst case: 4,200,000 GAL/DAY, by May 31 -> cumulative meter now almost ~ 171,560,000 gallons (rising continuously)

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/horizon-oil-spill.html

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/...of-mexico.html

so if (*) are correct -> cumulative spill supposed worst case is now ~ 580,850 metric tons

(**) for the 1979 supposedly minor spill: it was lost: 475,000 metric tons

the actual galacto spill must have much more quantities in metric tons than even the experts worst case supposed ... ?

or maybe there are bugs in the done web sites conversions ...

___
(*)
1 liter = how many gallons?
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/in...9190704AAjd98t
1 liter = 0.26 gallons

How many litres of crude oil makes 1 meric ton?
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_l...es_1_meric_ton
The density of crude oil varies between 790 and 970 kg/qm. Assuming (970+790)/2=880 kg/qm as an average density, the answer would be 1136l
___

1 metric ton of crude oil ~ 1136 x 0.26 gallons = 295,36 gallons

___

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/...of-mexico.html

How Much Oil Has Leaked Into the Gulf of Mexico?

 By:  Chris Amico

...

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/horizon-oil-spill.html

Adjust Leak Rate

Current Leak Estimates (updated May 29)

USGS 504,000 gal/day

Outside Estimates 1,050,000 gal/day

BP (Worst Case) 2,520,000 gal/day

Experts' Worst Case 4,200,000 gal/day

...

Vibrant62 · May 31, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

Welcome Traveller

May I recommend the reading of the following, which I found when looking for a few solid facts about what is going on.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6533

This is a forum of experts (predominantly) in the oil exploration field, and there is a lot of detail that may help in estimates plus much discussion in the various related threads. For the technically minded there is a lot of information that may help.

tropical · May 31, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

from Vibrant62 link #17: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6533

aliilaali on May 30, 2010 - 6:35pm
"these dog and pony tricks with top kills and LMRP caps make me cringe... time relief well is sunk and bottom kill attempted it will be august (i personally think it will be around early sept before bottom kill can practically be attempted...and dog leg severity restrictions on the RW approach I am sure will cause a big mess in the ops, come time) and by that time the bayous are going to be a black cess pool...."

Pathfinder · Jun 13, 2010

Re: Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

Sensors deployed to better track oil spill in Gulf

Sensors deployed to better track oil spill in Gulf

by Associated Press
wwltv.com
Posted on June 13, 2010 at 2:21 PM

SCHRIEVER, La. (AP) -- Undersea sensors were deployed to a ruptured well in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday in an effort to better track the amount of oil gushing into the sea as pressure mounted on BP to create special accounts that would set aside billions of dollars to pay for spill-related claims.

New estimates say the blown-out well could have been spewing as much as 2 million gallons of crude a day before a cut-and-cap maneuver earlier this month started capturing some of the flow. That means more than 100 million gallons may have leaked into the Gulf since the start of the disaster in April.

BP has struggled with several efforts to contain the oil. The federal government has given the energy giant until the end of Sunday to respond to a demand that the oil giant find ways to better contain the oil spilling into the Gulf.

Scientists also haven't been able to pin down just how much oil is spilling into the Gulf, and the government has stressed that the larger estimates were still preliminary and considered a worse-case scenario. The Obama administration's point man on the oil spill, Adm. Thad Allen, on Sunday said government officials think the best figures are from a middle-of-the-road estimate, which would put the spill at around 66 million gallons of oil.

Allen said the sensors were to be deployed Sunday and will start taking pressure readings to validate the estimates. BP spokesman Jon Pack said undersea robots were attempting to install the sensors within the containment cap that sits over the well.

"I've told everybody from the start these are only estimates. We will only know what is flowing out of that well when we have it completely capped, control the flow, can actually measure," Allen told CBS' "Face the Nation" on Sunday.

It's not known just how much oil started to leak after the riser pipe was cut on June 3, a step that BP and government officials said could increase the flow by 20 percent. The pipe cut was necessary to install a cap over the well; the cap has captured an estimated 5 million gallons so far.

.../
http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/Sensors-deployed-to-better-track-oil-spill-in-Gulf-96253879.html

Calculating rate of leak in gulf oil spill proves a difficult task

Treyfish

Moderator

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator

Traveller11

New member

Ronan Kelly

Retired 2020

sharon sanders

Editor-in-Chief & President

Traveller11

New member

Sally Furniss

Well-known member

Sally Furniss

Well-known member

tropical

Well-known member

Vibrant62

Senior Moderator

tropical

Well-known member

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator