This is from gs's link in the "Real estate market turning the corner?" thread. This is most of the article.
New Home Sales: This is the lowest sales for May since the Census Bureau started tracking sales in 1963. (NSA, 32 thousand new homes were sold in May 2009; the record low was 36 thousand in May 1982). There were 10.2 months of supply in May - significantly below the all time record of 12.4 months of supply set in January.
Existing Home Sales: Sales in May 2009 (4.77 million SAAR) were 2.4% higher than last month, and were 3.6% lower than May 2008 (4.95 million SAAR). According to the NAR (National Association of Realtors), inventory decreased to 3.80 million in May. The all time record was 4.57 million homes for sale in July 2008. This is not seasonally adjusted.
Typically inventory increases in May, and then really increases over the next couple months of the year until peaking in the summer. This decrease in inventory was a little unusual, and the next few months will be key for inventory.
Also, many REOs (bank owned properties) are included in the inventory because they are listed - but not all. Recently there have been stories about a substantial number of unlisted REOs - this is possible.
If the trend of declining year-over-year inventory levels continues in 2009 that will be a positive for the housing market. Prices will probably continue to fall until the months of supply reaches more normal levels (closer to 6 months compared to the current 9.6 months), and that will take some time.
Builder Confidence: The housing market index (HMI) decreased to 15 in June from 16 in May. The record low was 8 set in January.
Non-residential: A leading indicator of U.S. nonresidential construction spending held steady for a second month in May, suggesting an economic recovery has stalled, an architects' trade group said on Wednesday.
The Architecture Billings Index: edged up a tenth of a point to 42.9 last month after a slight decline in the prior month, according to the American Institute of Architects....."
Housing Starts in May: Total housing starts were at 532 thousand (SAAR) in May, rebounding from the all time record low in April of 454 thousand. The previous record low was 488 thousand in January (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959).
Single-family starts were at 401 thousand (SAAR) in May; above the record low in January and February (357 thousand) and above 400 thousand for the first time since last November.
Residential and Nonresidential Construction: Residential construction spending was up slightly in April (compared to March), and nonresidential spending has peaked and will probably decline sharply over the next two years.
May Employment Report: Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 345,000 in May. The economy has lost almost 3.6 million jobs over the last 6 months, and over 6 million jobs during the 17 consecutive months of job losses.The unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent; the highest level since 1983.Year over year employment is strongly negative (there were 5.4 million fewer Americans employed in May 2009 than in May 2008).
May Employment Comparing Recessions: For the current recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this recession was a slow starter (in terms of job losses and declines in GDP).
However job losses have really picked up over the last 8 months (4.6 million jobs lost, red line cliff diving on the graph), and the current recession is now one of the worst recessions since WWII in percentage terms - although not in terms of the unemployment rate.
May Retail Sales: The Census Bureau reported that nominal retail sales decreased 10.8% year-over-year (retail and food services decreased 10.1%), and real retail sales also declined by 10.8% on a YoY basis.
L.A. Port Traffic in May: Inbound traffic was 19.7% below May 2008. Outbound traffic was 15.3% below May 2008. There has been some recovery in exports over the last few months (the year-over-year comparison was off 30% from December through February). But this is the 3nd worst YoY comparison for imports - only February and April were worse. So imports from Asia appear especially weak.
U.S. Imports and Exports Through April: Both imports and exports declined again in April. On a year-over-year basis, exports are off 21% and imports are off 31%
May Capacity Utilization: Industrial production decreased 1.1 percent in May after having fallen a downward-revised 0.7 percent in April. The average decrease in industrial production during the first three months of the year was 1.6 percent. Manufacturing output moved down 1.0 percent in May with broad-based declines across industries. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines dropped 2.1 percent, and the output of utilities fell 1.4 percent. At 95.8 percent of its 2002 average, overall industrial output in May was 13.4 percent below its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry declined further in May to 68.3 percent, a level 12.6 percentage points below its average for 1972-2008. Prior to the current recession, the low over the history of this series, which begins in 1967, was 70.9 percent in December 1982.
Vehicle Miles driven in April: By this measure, vehicle miles driven are off 3.1% Year-over-year (YoY); the decline in miles driven was worse than during the early '70s and 1979-1980 oil crisis.
Unemployment Claims: Continued claims decreased to 6.74 million. This is 5.0% of covered employment. Note: continued claims peaked at 5.4% of covered employment in 1982 and 7.0% in 1975. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased this week by 500, and is now 41,500 below the peak of 10 weeks ago. There is a reasonable chance that claims have peaked for this cycle.
Restaurant Performance Index for May: The Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 98.3 in May, down 0.3 percent from April and its 19th consecutive month below 100.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/june-economic-summary-in-graphs.html
New Home Sales: This is the lowest sales for May since the Census Bureau started tracking sales in 1963. (NSA, 32 thousand new homes were sold in May 2009; the record low was 36 thousand in May 1982). There were 10.2 months of supply in May - significantly below the all time record of 12.4 months of supply set in January.
Existing Home Sales: Sales in May 2009 (4.77 million SAAR) were 2.4% higher than last month, and were 3.6% lower than May 2008 (4.95 million SAAR). According to the NAR (National Association of Realtors), inventory decreased to 3.80 million in May. The all time record was 4.57 million homes for sale in July 2008. This is not seasonally adjusted.
Typically inventory increases in May, and then really increases over the next couple months of the year until peaking in the summer. This decrease in inventory was a little unusual, and the next few months will be key for inventory.
Also, many REOs (bank owned properties) are included in the inventory because they are listed - but not all. Recently there have been stories about a substantial number of unlisted REOs - this is possible.
If the trend of declining year-over-year inventory levels continues in 2009 that will be a positive for the housing market. Prices will probably continue to fall until the months of supply reaches more normal levels (closer to 6 months compared to the current 9.6 months), and that will take some time.
Builder Confidence: The housing market index (HMI) decreased to 15 in June from 16 in May. The record low was 8 set in January.
Non-residential: A leading indicator of U.S. nonresidential construction spending held steady for a second month in May, suggesting an economic recovery has stalled, an architects' trade group said on Wednesday.
The Architecture Billings Index: edged up a tenth of a point to 42.9 last month after a slight decline in the prior month, according to the American Institute of Architects....."
Housing Starts in May: Total housing starts were at 532 thousand (SAAR) in May, rebounding from the all time record low in April of 454 thousand. The previous record low was 488 thousand in January (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959).
Single-family starts were at 401 thousand (SAAR) in May; above the record low in January and February (357 thousand) and above 400 thousand for the first time since last November.
Residential and Nonresidential Construction: Residential construction spending was up slightly in April (compared to March), and nonresidential spending has peaked and will probably decline sharply over the next two years.
May Employment Report: Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 345,000 in May. The economy has lost almost 3.6 million jobs over the last 6 months, and over 6 million jobs during the 17 consecutive months of job losses.The unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent; the highest level since 1983.Year over year employment is strongly negative (there were 5.4 million fewer Americans employed in May 2009 than in May 2008).
May Employment Comparing Recessions: For the current recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this recession was a slow starter (in terms of job losses and declines in GDP).
However job losses have really picked up over the last 8 months (4.6 million jobs lost, red line cliff diving on the graph), and the current recession is now one of the worst recessions since WWII in percentage terms - although not in terms of the unemployment rate.
May Retail Sales: The Census Bureau reported that nominal retail sales decreased 10.8% year-over-year (retail and food services decreased 10.1%), and real retail sales also declined by 10.8% on a YoY basis.
L.A. Port Traffic in May: Inbound traffic was 19.7% below May 2008. Outbound traffic was 15.3% below May 2008. There has been some recovery in exports over the last few months (the year-over-year comparison was off 30% from December through February). But this is the 3nd worst YoY comparison for imports - only February and April were worse. So imports from Asia appear especially weak.
U.S. Imports and Exports Through April: Both imports and exports declined again in April. On a year-over-year basis, exports are off 21% and imports are off 31%
May Capacity Utilization: Industrial production decreased 1.1 percent in May after having fallen a downward-revised 0.7 percent in April. The average decrease in industrial production during the first three months of the year was 1.6 percent. Manufacturing output moved down 1.0 percent in May with broad-based declines across industries. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines dropped 2.1 percent, and the output of utilities fell 1.4 percent. At 95.8 percent of its 2002 average, overall industrial output in May was 13.4 percent below its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry declined further in May to 68.3 percent, a level 12.6 percentage points below its average for 1972-2008. Prior to the current recession, the low over the history of this series, which begins in 1967, was 70.9 percent in December 1982.
Vehicle Miles driven in April: By this measure, vehicle miles driven are off 3.1% Year-over-year (YoY); the decline in miles driven was worse than during the early '70s and 1979-1980 oil crisis.
Unemployment Claims: Continued claims decreased to 6.74 million. This is 5.0% of covered employment. Note: continued claims peaked at 5.4% of covered employment in 1982 and 7.0% in 1975. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased this week by 500, and is now 41,500 below the peak of 10 weeks ago. There is a reasonable chance that claims have peaked for this cycle.
Restaurant Performance Index for May: The Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 98.3 in May, down 0.3 percent from April and its 19th consecutive month below 100.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/june-economic-summary-in-graphs.html